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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Video update is best viewed in full screen mode - for higher resolution.
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Video update is best viewed in full screen mode - for higher resolution.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Sunday night: Mostly cloudy skies. A chance for showers - a few thunderstorms can't be ruled out.. Windy. Above normal temperatures.
Lows: in the 64-68 degree range | Wind: South at 10-20 mph and gusts over 35 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 41 degrees. Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: Less than 0.20" My confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday: Windy - cloudy - a chance for showers - thunderstorms possible - showers becoming more widespread as we move through the day. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 70-75 degrees. | Wind: South/southwest winds at 10-20 mph - gusts above 35 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 63 degrees. Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: Less than 0.30" My confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday night: Widespread showers and some thunderstorms - locally heavy downpours possible. Cooler. Near normal temperatures.
Lows: around 56 degrees | Wind: Southerly winds at 10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 41 degrees. Precipitation probability - 90% | Rainfall totals: 0.40-0.80" - locally heavier amounts.
My confidence in this forecast is very high
My confidence in this forecast is very high
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Tuesday: Cloudy with showers and some thunderstorms likely. Near normal temperatures.
Highs: around 62-66 degrees. | Wind: Southwest winds at 10 mph becoming westerly at 10-15 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 63 degrees. Precipitation probability - 80% | Rainfall totals: 0.40-0.80" locally higher My confidence in this forecast is high
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Windy conditions will continue into Monday afternoon. A few storms may organize into lines over parts of the Ohio Valley - most likely over portions of southern Indiana into Kentucky. Will need to monitor. Right now the greatest risk appears to be north and east of southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Again - monitor for updates.
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Use caution on area lakes - with gusty winds.
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The wild card in this forecast is how much rain is going to fall over the region. Appears the central and eastern counties could pick up 1-2" of rain - western counties will be less. There could be a band of heavier totals (2"-3") somewhere in southern Indiana into Kentucky - most likely along or east of the Ohio River
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Windy conditions will continue into Monday afternoon. A few storms may organize into lines over parts of the Ohio Valley - most likely over portions of southern Indiana into Kentucky. Will need to monitor. Right now the greatest risk appears to be north and east of southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Again - monitor for updates.
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Use caution on area lakes - with gusty winds.
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The wild card in this forecast is how much rain is going to fall over the region. Appears the central and eastern counties could pick up 1-2" of rain - western counties will be less. There could be a band of heavier totals (2"-3") somewhere in southern Indiana into Kentucky - most likely along or east of the Ohio River
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Increased rain chances for Monday.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Can't rule out a clap of thunder with a few storms.
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Can't rule out a clap of thunder with a few storms.
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Monday: A few severe thunderstorms can not be ruled out. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Can't rule out a clap of thunder with a few storms.
.Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Can't rule out a clap of thunder with a few storms.
Monday night : A few severe thunderstorms can not be ruled out. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Can't rule out a clap of thunder with a few storms.
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? A few claps of thunder possible.
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? A few claps of thunder possible.
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Don't forget WINTER WEATHER PREPAREDNESS WEEK HAS ARRIVED - CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION!
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Mild air has invaded the region - once again! Go figure. Ahead of our next storm system (a blizzard in the Rocky Mountains) - for us this means rain.
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7 pm temperatures - yes that would be 70 degrees at Barkley Regional Airport in Paducah, Kentucky.
Click image for real size view.
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Rain chances will continue to rise over the coming days. Widespread rain is likely by Monday night into Tuesday night across our region. There will be a sharp gradient between the heavier rainfall amounts and the lesser totals.
HEADLINE: Don't forget WINTER WEATHER PREPAREDNESS WEEK HAS ARRIVED - CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION!
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Mild air has invaded the region - once again! Go figure. Ahead of our next storm system (a blizzard in the Rocky Mountains) - for us this means rain.
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7 pm temperatures - yes that would be 70 degrees at Barkley Regional Airport in Paducah, Kentucky.
Click image for real size view.
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Rain chances will continue to rise over the coming days. Widespread rain is likely by Monday night into Tuesday night across our region. There will be a sharp gradient between the heavier rainfall amounts and the lesser totals.
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Rainfall totals of 1-2" will occur over most of the region - perhaps a bit less in the far northern counties and far western counties. I would not be surprised to hear of some 2-3" amounts in a band east of the Ohio River.
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Wind fields are once again strong with this upcoming storm system. However, instability is once again lacking - like the last storm system. The main concern will be whether or not some of the thunderstorms form in a squall line of small line segments. If this does happen then small tornadoes or high wind bursts will be possible. Listen for updates.
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Right now I suspect the main concern will be the area in orange on the map below. Again - I will update in the morning. If need be.
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Here is the current outlined area for Monday into Monday night - the yellow area is the severe risk zone (as currently forecast - this can and often does change as an event unfolds) - updated severe weather outlook maps can be viewed here - the orange area is the slight risk zone (SPC uses the word slight - which means severe thunderstorms are likely to occur but not be widespread in nature - the yellow area is where general thunderstorms - below severe limits are expected
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PWAT values on Monday into Tuesday will be above 1" - precipitable water values. High for this time of the year. Click image for real view size.
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See the rainfall map below for additional information.
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Here is the VV map for Monday night and again Tuesday night - you can see quite a bit of lift in our region - this will help with the generation of showers and a few thunderstorms. Images from www.wright-weather.com Click image for real view size
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I ran the SREF plumes on the rain event to see how it looked - it is showing the bulk of the rain falling on Tuesday - I would say Monday night into Tuesday night - perhaps a lull in between systems - the second round later on Tuesday into Tuesday night will be heavier over our south and eastern counties.
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NAM BUFKIT also shows the bulk of the rain Monday night into Tuesday - remember BUFKIT days are from right to left (time sequence) - you can see the two distinct periods of rain. Click for real view size.
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Strong and gusty winds will continue into Monday afternoon. Monday will bring ABOVE normal temperatures - here is a map showing just how much above normal temperatures will be. Quite mild for this time of the year.
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Temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday into Friday. I would not be surprised to see another freeze by Thursday morning. Expecting temperatures into the 20s.
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I have been telling you for several weeks that the middle and end of November would turn active with increasing chances for rain and precipitation - that is what is occurring and will continue to occur as we push into the last half of the month. Numerous storm systems to monitor and track. Active period of weather.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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Snow is not in our local forecast.
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Snow is not in our local forecast.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: November 20th -November 23rd
Event: Unsettled with several periods of showers and thunderstorms
Severe Risk: Too soon to forecast severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: n/a
Details: Appears wet with several low pressure areas in the central United States
Confidence: Medium
Event: Unsettled with several periods of showers and thunderstorms
Severe Risk: Too soon to forecast severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: n/a
Details: Appears wet with several low pressure areas in the central United States
Confidence: Medium
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Date Range: November 25th -November 28th
Event: Active weather pattern - we will be between the cold air to the north and warm air to the south - multiple storm systems may bring several chances for showers and thunderstorms - occasional shots of cold air - cold air is building in Canada. Expect several significant cold waves towards the end of the month into first part of December.
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a forecast on severe weather
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: Potential for occasional shots of cold air with an active pattern - will be near the boundary of cold/warm air - plenty of chances for rain and possible thunderstorms.
Confidence: Low
Event: Active weather pattern - we will be between the cold air to the north and warm air to the south - multiple storm systems may bring several chances for showers and thunderstorms - occasional shots of cold air - cold air is building in Canada. Expect several significant cold waves towards the end of the month into first part of December.
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a forecast on severe weather
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: Potential for occasional shots of cold air with an active pattern - will be near the boundary of cold/warm air - plenty of chances for rain and possible thunderstorms.
Confidence: Low
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Date Range: November 28th -December 8th
Event: Below normal temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: I continue to watch the cold air building up north - the pattern favors a dump of cold air towards the end of the month and into the beginning of December. Unsettled pattern overall for the next three weeks.
Confidence: Low
Event: Below normal temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: I continue to watch the cold air building up north - the pattern favors a dump of cold air towards the end of the month and into the beginning of December. Unsettled pattern overall for the next three weeks.
Confidence: Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. Main story this coming week will be the rain chances on Monday night and Tuesday. Some showers before then - but that is the main rain maker.
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Temperatures down into the 20s will be possible again later this week (towards Thursday morning)
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Temperatures down into the 20s will be possible again later this week (towards Thursday morning)
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Next system arrives late next weekend with more shower chances. Active pattern should continue for the next several weeks. That probably means more above normal temperatures with brief spells of colder weather.
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Here are the ensemble temperature anomalies for next Sunday - above normal temperatures again with windy conditions.
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Timing of the bigger push of colder air is still in question - thinking towards the end of the month into the first week of December.
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Here are the ensemble temperature anomalies for next Sunday - above normal temperatures again with windy conditions.
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Timing of the bigger push of colder air is still in question - thinking towards the end of the month into the first week of December.
November is looking as if it will be a bit of a roller coaster in the temperature department - if we do end up with several deep storm systems then we would experience warm air moving up ahead of the storms and then cold air behind the systems. Analogs are showing a cold to very cold December into January and then perhaps more normal in February - with a cooler than average spring and stormy/wet spring.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
. For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-sitehttp://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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