Your Hometown Weather: November 1, 2011: Unsettled pattern ahead of us

November 1, 2011

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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Monday night: Mostly clear skies. Below normal temperatures.

Lows: in the 34-38 degree range. | Wind: South/southwest winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 44 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is very high

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Near normal temperatures.

Highs: around 65-70 degree range. | Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 67 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is very high
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Tuesday night: Mostly clear. Below normal temperatures.

Lows: around 37-42 degrees | Wind: South at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 44 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%.
My confidence in this forecast is very high

Wednesday: Mostly sunny - a few clouds possible in the afternoon. Near normal temperatures.

Highs: around 66-72 degrees. | Wind: Southerly/southwest winds at 10-20 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 67 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0% (Rain chances increase Wednesday night)
My confidence in this forecast is very high

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No major concerns for the next 24 hours.
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No major concerns for the next 24 hours.
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Wild card in the forecast - none.

No major changes in the forecast.

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

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Wednesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? A few thunderstorms possible after midnight.

Thursday: Severe weather risk appears low - will monitor for any changes. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? There could be a few thunderstorms
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HEADLINE:   A cold front passed through the area on Monday morning. This front had a few clouds associated with it - no rainfall. The front did help keep temperatures down a bit on Monday afternoon.
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Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry. Temperatures will be near normal during the afternoon hours.
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Dramatic weather changes will be on tap for Thursday...
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Rain chances will increase on Wednesday night (especially after midnight) and this will continue into Thursday.
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Right now I am thinking rainfall totals from the Thursday event will be in the 0.20-0.50" range - could be a few locally heavier amounts. Thunderstorms can't be ruled out - especially over Kentucky and Tennessee.
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There are a few ingredients lacking for severe weather - one is rich moisture and the second is instability. I will monitor for any changes. Right now it appears the risk for severe storms is low.
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Winds will pick up on Thursday behind the cold front and temperatures will fall - we are looking at a 20-30 degree temperature drop from Wednesday's highs to Thursday afternoon's highs. From the near 70 degree weather on Wednesday down into the 40s by Thursday afternoon. Winds will gust over 20 mph on Thursday, as well.
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Here is the dew point forecast map from www.wright-weather.com - you can see the MEAGER return of moisture with dew points only creeping up a little bit. For significant weather you would want to see dew points in the middle to upper 50s in the fall and winter months - typically into the 60s in spring and summer. You can see just a small tongue of dew points attempting to move northward in front of the cold front - being pulled up by the area of low pressure (which would be in Illinois at the point this image is forecasting for) Click image for real size view
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And for good measure here is the GFS - another model of choice - showing dew points a bit higher than what the NAM is showing - NAM could be a bit underdone imo on the dew points.
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Here is the 850 mb wind field map - this shows you the winds a few thousand feet above the surface - not overly impressive but you can see an area where winds strengthen. Wind fields is one of the items meteorologists look for when forecasting severe weather. Again, though, without instability and rich moisture it really won't matter if the wind fields are strong. In order for severe thunderstorms to develop you need higher moisture and some instability.
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Bottom line - some thunderstorms are possible on Thursday but the threat for severe weather appears low. Not zero - but low. Will monitor and update as new information comes in.
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Winds may be gusty on Thursday behind the cold front - gusts over 20-25 mph will be possible from the west/northwest - with falling temperatures.
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The next storm arrives next weekend - possibly some rain and thunderstorms. Too far out to make a determination on whether severe weather will occur. I am not overly bullish on the severe threat. Again moisture is lacking and instability. Will monitor and continue to update.
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The Storm Prediction Center and most NWS Offices are talking about the weekend storm and we all appear to be on the same page. Lot of uncertainties surround how the system evolves. A lot of the model data takes the best energy further to our north. Which seems to make sense looking at the current track forecast.

We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.

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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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Snow is not in our local forecast.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: November 5th - November 7th
Event: Rain and possible thunderstorms
Severe Risk: Low chances.

Frozen Precipitation Risk: None
Details: Cold front and low pressure area to our west - moves east/northeast.
Impact: Rainfall totals of 0.20-0.40"
Confidence: Low
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Date Range: November 9th -November 11th
Event: Showers and thunderstorms
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a call on this part of the forecast. .

Frozen Precipitation Risk: None
Details: Storm system develops in the central United States and pushes east
Confidence: Low

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1. The big story in the medium and long range continues to be two separate storm systems. One for the Wednesday night/Thursday time frame (see discussion above for that information) and another around the 6th-8th time frame.

The next potential system arrives late in the period - perhaps around November 6th-8th. This is a system that I have been talking about since the 22nd or 23rd of October. Almost all of the latest data takes a deep low into the northern Plains and Great Lakes region. This low will have a cold front trailing from it - this front will push through our region on Sunday. Data indicates a lack of moisture and instability. If this is the case then our chances for heavy precipitation and/or thunderstorms will be minimal.

Still too soon to make a definite call - however, all of the data is trending towards less of an event. Will monitor.

Beyond this weekend the pattern appears quite unsettled with a series of storms likely to impact the central United States.

November is looking as if it will be a bit of a roller coaster in the temperature department - if we do end up with several deep storm systems then we would experience warm air moving up ahead of the storms and then cold air behind the systems. Analogs are showing a cold December into February.

Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here

All other states- Click Here

. For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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