Your Hometown Weather: November 5, 2011: Nice weekend ahead

November 5, 2011

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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Friday night: Clouds early and then clearing - fog developing - locally dense fog - thin layer of ice possible bridge surfaces early in the morning hours. Below normal temperatures.

Lows: in the 31-37 degree range. | Wind: East at 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 44 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is very high

Saturday: Fog in some areas during the morning hours - moisture from fog could cause a thin layer of ice on bridges - otherwise becoming mostly sunny. Below normal temperatures.

Highs: around 60-65 degrees. | Wind: Southeast winds at 10-15 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 67 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday night: Mostly clear. Near normal temperatures.

Lows: around 42-46 degrees | Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 44 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is very high

Sunday: Mostly sunny and pleasant - windy at times - enjoy the day! Near normal temperatures.

Highs: around 65-70 degrees. | Wind: South winds at 10-25 mph - gusts to 30 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 67 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is very high

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Fog in some areas may be dense tonight and tomorrow morning - thin layer of ice possible on elevated surfaces - some gusty winds this weekend.
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No - but use caution in areas of fog and on bridges.
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No wild cards in the forecast.

Added fog to the forecast

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No.

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Sunday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No

Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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HEADLINE: A reminder that we turn our clocks back ONE HOUR on Saturday night and it is a great time to change the batteries in your smoke detectors and NOAA Weather Radios!
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Clouds lingered over the region on Friday morning, as expected. This helped keep temperatures on the cool side. There was a sharp cut off on the cloud region vs areas of sunshine. See this visible satellite image below - cloud bank over our region with sharp edges around it - the dark/black area is where the sun was shining.

The weekend will be dry and pleasant - for November. Temperatures will range from the 30s during the morning hours and into the 60s by afternoon. Not bad!

The next big weather system arrives on Tuesday and Wednesday. Can't rule out some precipitation on Monday night (mainly far western parts of the area) but won't hit that too hard right now and will keep it dry over most of our region.

A much stronger storm will push into the region on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. I am still thinking that there will be a squall line with thunderstorms on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Still fine tuning the exact timing of the storms.

A few storms could be strong or severe. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined parts of our region for a risk of severe weather. Again, still too soon for details. Most of the time we don't have a handle on an event until 24 hours in advance.

Here is the Storm Prediction Center's outlook for Tuesday/Wednesday - you can see where they have shaded in their highest area of concern.

Precipitation amounts next week could be in the 0.50-1.00 range - locally heavier amounts, of course, with any thunderstorms that train over the same area.
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I ran some analogs on this storm system (the Tuesday/Wednesday storm) from a web-site out of St Louis - I asked it for the analog summary of severe weather reports and the probability of at least 1" of rain - here is what it shows - you can see that past storms, similar to this storm, have produced severe storms and some locally heavy rain.
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Click the image for real view size
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Here is the 5 day precipitation outlook - remember the weekend will be dry. All of this rain will fall on Monday night into Wednesday - centered mostly on Tuesday/Wednesday. The HPC rainfall map shows even higher totals for parts of Missouri and Kansas - Iowa. Will post that below my image.

Here is the HPC map - click map for real size view

We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.

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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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Snow is not in our local forecast.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: November 8th - November 9th
Event: Showers and possible thunderstorms
Severe Risk: Severe weather will be possible in the Mississippi Valley. Most likely Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Frozen Precipitation Risk: None
Details: A cold front and low pressure area to our west - moves east/northeast. Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain possible in or near our region.
Impact: Rainfall totals of 0.50-1.00"
Confidence: Medium

Date Range: November 13th -November 18th
Event: Active with several periods of showers and thunderstorms
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a call
Frozen Precipitation Risk: n/a
Details: Data is showing an active storm pattern
Confidence: Low

Date Range: November 18th -November 23rd
Event: Cold wave - below normal temperatures
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: Potential for much below normal temperatures
Confidence: Low

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1. Addressed the mid-week system above in the current weather headline section.
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Here is a statement that the Paducah, Kentucky NWS concerning fall severe weather events
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First I want to remind you that we are near the peak of our secondary/fall severe weather season. Our deadliest tornadoes in recent years have been in November, and we have had more tornado fatalities from November through March in the last 2 decades than the other months of the year combined. The atmospheric wind fields have been gradually strengthening and each passing weather system could bring a cause for concern IF enough instability develops. So, please stay especially abreast of the latest forecasts/ weather updates over the coming weeks and be aware anytime we have a chance of thunderstorms. Our next good chance of thunderstorms is Tuesday and Tuesday night and severe weather is possible mainly Tuesday night as a cold front pushes east across our region, so please stay abreast of the latest weather updates as this system evolves.

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End of their comments...
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I am watching a potential cold wave for the middle of the month - perhaps after the 18th or 19th. Lot of cold air is pooling far to the north and northwest - eventually this will find a path into the central United States - likely with a strong cold front and precipitation.

I promised you that November would become active and so it has.

November is looking as if it will be a bit of a roller coaster in the temperature department - if we do end up with several deep storm systems then we would experience warm air moving up ahead of the storms and then cold air behind the systems. Analogs are showing a cold to very cold December into February.

Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here

All other states- Click Here

. For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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