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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Video update is best viewed in full screen mode - for higher resolution (when I update the video it will appear below).
.Video update is best viewed in full screen mode - for higher resolution (when I update the video it will appear below).
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Thursday night: Mostly clear and cold. A freeze.
Lows: in the 23-28 degree range | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 39 degrees.Below normal temperatures.
Wind: Light and variable winds.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday: Mostly sunny skies - cool.
Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 54-56 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.Below normal temperatures.
Wind: Southerly at 10-15 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday night: Just a few high clouds - otherwise mostly clear skies.
Below normal temperatures.
Below normal temperatures.
Lows: around middle 30s eastern counties and upper 30s elsewhere | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 39 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday: Mostly sunny skies during the morning and early afternoon - then increasing clouds. Windy at times. Boaters use care on area lakes.
Highs: around 58-64 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.Above normal temperatures.
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph with gusts above 30 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Rain rolls in Saturday night into Sunday night. See below information..
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Thanksgiving will be dry and cool. Thanksgiving weekend could be stormy. Stay tuned.
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Friday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Don't forget WINTER WEATHER PREPAREDNESS WEEK HAS ARRIVED - CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION!
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Have YOU liked the Facebook page for the National Weather Service Forecast Office out of Paducah, Kentucky? These are the people that issue our winter storm watches and warnings - ice storm warnings - tornado warnings - flood information: Here is their page - click here and hit LIKE at the top of their page.
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About a week ago I posted on Facebook that parts of our region will likely see anywhere from 4-7 inches of rain before the end of the month. That appears to have been underplayed a bit - if I had to say it over again I might say parts of our region would experience anywhere from 7--10 inches of rain.
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Many of us picked up 2-4" of rain over the last few days - I believe we will also experience another 1-2" with locally higher amounts on Sunday through Tuesday night/Wednesday morning - then a couple of more systems after that. All said and done - some heavy totals.
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We have a nice couple of days ahead of us. Friday will be a bit on the cool side but it will be dry. Saturday will be dry during the day. Temperatures will warm a bit in advance of our next storm system moving in from the west.
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Saturday should be a GREAT shopping day in the region - for those looking for holiday gifts. Take advantage of the nice weather. It will be windy - boaters use caution.
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Here is the wind forecast map for Saturday - map from www.wright-weather.com - click image for real view size.
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Showers and some thunderstorms will be possible on and off from late Saturday night into Wednesday. I am watching a couple of storm systems for this time period.
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Right now it appears that a general light to perhaps moderate rain event will occur late on Saturday night and last into Sunday night. Thinking right now that rainfall totals during that time period could be in the 0.30-0.50" range with some areas picking up a bit more.
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Then there should be a lull in precipitation at some point on Sunday night/Monday morning - then another round of precipitation develops Monday night into Wednesday. Depending on the track of the storm system some of this rain could be heavy. This is especially true for the Tuesday and Tuesday night time frame. Again - several days away and plenty of time to monitor. Some of the data is indicating rainfall totals in excess of 1".
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I will fine tune the timing of the precipitation as we move forward into the weekend.
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Remember how I have told you that when the pressure graident tightens up our winds increase. Equal lines of barometric pressure are called isobars. You can see on this NAM Model forecast below where the isobars - those whitish lines - tighten up on Saturday (especially over Missouri during the time frame on this image). What does this mean? Breezy conditions!
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Click image for larger view - image is from www.wright-weather.com
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HEADLINE: Don't forget WINTER WEATHER PREPAREDNESS WEEK HAS ARRIVED - CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION!
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Have YOU liked the Facebook page for the National Weather Service Forecast Office out of Paducah, Kentucky? These are the people that issue our winter storm watches and warnings - ice storm warnings - tornado warnings - flood information: Here is their page - click here and hit LIKE at the top of their page.
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About a week ago I posted on Facebook that parts of our region will likely see anywhere from 4-7 inches of rain before the end of the month. That appears to have been underplayed a bit - if I had to say it over again I might say parts of our region would experience anywhere from 7--10 inches of rain.
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Many of us picked up 2-4" of rain over the last few days - I believe we will also experience another 1-2" with locally higher amounts on Sunday through Tuesday night/Wednesday morning - then a couple of more systems after that. All said and done - some heavy totals.
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We have a nice couple of days ahead of us. Friday will be a bit on the cool side but it will be dry. Saturday will be dry during the day. Temperatures will warm a bit in advance of our next storm system moving in from the west.
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Saturday should be a GREAT shopping day in the region - for those looking for holiday gifts. Take advantage of the nice weather. It will be windy - boaters use caution.
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Here is the wind forecast map for Saturday - map from www.wright-weather.com - click image for real view size.
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Showers and some thunderstorms will be possible on and off from late Saturday night into Wednesday. I am watching a couple of storm systems for this time period.
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Right now it appears that a general light to perhaps moderate rain event will occur late on Saturday night and last into Sunday night. Thinking right now that rainfall totals during that time period could be in the 0.30-0.50" range with some areas picking up a bit more.
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Then there should be a lull in precipitation at some point on Sunday night/Monday morning - then another round of precipitation develops Monday night into Wednesday. Depending on the track of the storm system some of this rain could be heavy. This is especially true for the Tuesday and Tuesday night time frame. Again - several days away and plenty of time to monitor. Some of the data is indicating rainfall totals in excess of 1".
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I will fine tune the timing of the precipitation as we move forward into the weekend.
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Remember how I have told you that when the pressure graident tightens up our winds increase. Equal lines of barometric pressure are called isobars. You can see on this NAM Model forecast below where the isobars - those whitish lines - tighten up on Saturday (especially over Missouri during the time frame on this image). What does this mean? Breezy conditions!
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Click image for larger view - image is from www.wright-weather.com
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Here is the wind forecast for Saturday - the scale is at the bottom of the page. You can see where the strong winds are - then compare to the map above where it shows the isobars. Tighter=stronger winds.
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Here are the precipitation maps from my web-site. It won't rain every hour of every day - but you get the general idea. There will be increasing chances of rain from Saturday night into Wednesday. SATURDAY during the day - WILL be dry :) - ENJOY!!!
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Here is the wind forecast for Saturday - the scale is at the bottom of the page. You can see where the strong winds are - then compare to the map above where it shows the isobars. Tighter=stronger winds.
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Here are the precipitation maps from my web-site. It won't rain every hour of every day - but you get the general idea. There will be increasing chances of rain from Saturday night into Wednesday. SATURDAY during the day - WILL be dry :) - ENJOY!!!
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Thanksgiving will be dry and cool.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
Thanksgiving will be dry and cool.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 120 hours (5 day rainfall forecast). This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Snow is not in our local forecast.
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Snow is not in our local forecast.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: November 20th -November 23rd
Event: Unsettled with several periods of showers and thunderstorms - locally heavy rain. Windy at times.
Severe Risk: Low
Frozen Precipitation Risk: None
Details: Appears wet with several low pressure areas in the central United States
Confidence in my forecast: Very High
Event: Unsettled with several periods of showers and thunderstorms - locally heavy rain. Windy at times.
Severe Risk: Low
Frozen Precipitation Risk: None
Details: Appears wet with several low pressure areas in the central United States
Confidence in my forecast: Very High
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Date Range: November 25th -December 2nd
Event: Active weather pattern - we will be between the cold air to the north and warm air to the south - multiple storm systems may bring several chances for showers and thunderstorms - occasional shots of cold air - cold air is building in Canada. Expect several significant cold waves towards the end of the month into first part of December.
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a forecast on severe weather - locally heavy rain is possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown - too soon to make a call on that
Details: Potential for occasional shots of cold air with an active pattern - will be near the boundary of cold/warm air - plenty of chances for rain and possible thunderstorms.
Confidence in my forecast: High
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Event: Active weather pattern - we will be between the cold air to the north and warm air to the south - multiple storm systems may bring several chances for showers and thunderstorms - occasional shots of cold air - cold air is building in Canada. Expect several significant cold waves towards the end of the month into first part of December.
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a forecast on severe weather - locally heavy rain is possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown - too soon to make a call on that
Details: Potential for occasional shots of cold air with an active pattern - will be near the boundary of cold/warm air - plenty of chances for rain and possible thunderstorms.
Confidence in my forecast: High
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Date Range: November 28th -December 8th
Event: Below normal temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: I continue to watch the cold air building up north - the pattern favors a dump of cold air towards the end of the month or into the beginning of December. Unsettled pattern overall for the next three weeks. Wet with numerous systems producing rain and thunderstorm chances.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Event: Below normal temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: I continue to watch the cold air building up north - the pattern favors a dump of cold air towards the end of the month or into the beginning of December. Unsettled pattern overall for the next three weeks. Wet with numerous systems producing rain and thunderstorm chances.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Date Range: December 3rd - 5th
Event: Below normal temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
Event: Below normal temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Date Range: December 8th-9th
Event: Near normal to below normal temperatures.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possible
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Event: Near normal to below normal temperatures.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possible
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. Basically watching the next storm system for Saturday night into next Wednesday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely to occur in our region. Right now the severe weather risk appears minimal. Will monitor - remember that I try to keep the severe forecast in the short range section of the blog.
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Heavy rain will be possible - widespread 1-2" of rain with pockets of 2-4" of rain not out of the question. I will need to fine tune the exact placement of the heaviest rain bands.
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Here is the rainfall map from the LAST seven days - you can see that we don't need a lot more rain.
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Click image for real view size.
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THANKSGIVING will be DRY and cool! Enjoy that part of the forecast.
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Another storm system will impact the region around the 25th-27th. This could bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain will again be possible with this storm. Too soon to make a call on wintry precipitation. There will be cold air following the storm. Another widespread 1/2-1" of rain likely. Pockets of heavy very well possible.
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Here is the 500 mb map from www.wright-weather.com - showing you the strong jet diving south and pulling up moisture into our region. This is for the storm around the 26th - give or take a day. Will be watching this one closely, as well. Click images for real view size.
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And the 300 mb jet stream map - dive dive dive - but hey, what does that mean for our weather? That is what you care about. Well - it could mean a significant rain event - thunderstorms - the whole nine yards. Wayyyyy too soon to make an actual forecast - but this is a system we have been talking about for awhile. Active period.
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There could be several inches of rain between now and the end of the month. It would not take too much more rain to cause some hydrological problems in the region (flooding). This will need to be monitored. Flooding concerns would mostly be low lying areas that typically have problems during lengthy periods of rain - small streams - ditches - poor drainage areas.
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Check out the latest six to ten day precipitation outlook. Above normal precipitation is forecast for our region.
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Heavy rain will be possible - widespread 1-2" of rain with pockets of 2-4" of rain not out of the question. I will need to fine tune the exact placement of the heaviest rain bands.
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Here is the rainfall map from the LAST seven days - you can see that we don't need a lot more rain.
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Click image for real view size.
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.THANKSGIVING will be DRY and cool! Enjoy that part of the forecast.
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Another storm system will impact the region around the 25th-27th. This could bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain will again be possible with this storm. Too soon to make a call on wintry precipitation. There will be cold air following the storm. Another widespread 1/2-1" of rain likely. Pockets of heavy very well possible.
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Here is the 500 mb map from www.wright-weather.com - showing you the strong jet diving south and pulling up moisture into our region. This is for the storm around the 26th - give or take a day. Will be watching this one closely, as well. Click images for real view size.
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And the 300 mb jet stream map - dive dive dive - but hey, what does that mean for our weather? That is what you care about. Well - it could mean a significant rain event - thunderstorms - the whole nine yards. Wayyyyy too soon to make an actual forecast - but this is a system we have been talking about for awhile. Active period.
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There could be several inches of rain between now and the end of the month. It would not take too much more rain to cause some hydrological problems in the region (flooding). This will need to be monitored. Flooding concerns would mostly be low lying areas that typically have problems during lengthy periods of rain - small streams - ditches - poor drainage areas.
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Check out the latest six to ten day precipitation outlook. Above normal precipitation is forecast for our region.
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November is looking as if it will be a bit of a roller coaster in the temperature department - if we do end up with several deep storm systems then we would experience warm air moving up ahead of the storms and then cold air behind the systems. Analogs are showing a cold to very cold December into February - with a cooler than average spring and stormy/wet spring. The cold air this winter will depend on the blocking - more blocking = colder weather.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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