November 29th - 30th: Colder weather has arrived!

November 29th and 30th, 2011

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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Tuesday night:  Flood warnings for some counties along the Ohio River - see River and Lake Stages for more details - click here.  Precipitation will come to an end this evening.  Some clouds and colder.
Below normal temperatures.
Lows: in the lower to middle 20s  |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Wind:  North winds at 10-15 mph early  
Precipitation probability - 10%   | Rainfall totals:  0" or less.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday:  Mostly sunny - some morning fog possible.    
Below normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 40-44 degrees.  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.
Wind: Westerly winds at 5-10 mph.  
Precipitation probability - 0%  Rainfall totals:   0" 
Confidence in this forecast is very high

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Wednesday night:  Mostly clear and cold.
Below normal temperatures.
Lows: in the lower to middle 20s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Wind:  Calm winds
Precipitation probability - 0%  Rainfall totals: 0" 
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Thursday:  Mostly sunny cool.
Below normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 45-48 degrees  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-15 mph.   
Precipitation probability - 0%  Rainfall totals:  0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms.  Click here to join
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No major concerns.  Can't rule out some fog during the morning hours.  Some slick spots if moisture is left on roadways - in the counties that experienced heavy snow earlier this morning.

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Flood warnings have been issued for the Ohio River - click here for more details - then zoom down to your local area.
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No

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No wild cards in this forecast.
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Tweaked temperatures a little.


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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.  More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here 
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Tuesday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Frozen precipitation will end early Tuesday evening.
Tuesday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Wednesday:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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Wednesday night :
  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Thursday: 
Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE:
The areas first snow caused travel headaches in a few of our counties this morning.  The most widespread and heaviest snow was across western Tennessee, northeast Arkansas, and southeast Missouri.  Anywhere from 1-4" of snow fell in these areas.
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A second band of heavy snow fell across parts of far southern Illinois into far western Kentucky.  1-4 inches of snow was common in these areas.  Thundersnow was event reported in the heaviest band of snow.  Vienna, IL - Joppa, IL and Ballard County, Kentucky reported lightning and thunder.  A few other reports of thundersnow were received from far southwest Kentucky and southeast Missouri.
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Once again banding was the main culprit for the heavy snow amounts - that and temperatures that fell into the lower 30s as the snow fell.  I mentioned in the blog over the last several days that snow banding would be possible and this could cause some heavier totals. 
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I measured 1/2" of snow here at my place in central Massac County - parts of western Massac County picked up 2-3" of the white gold.  Portions of Ballard County reported 2-4" of snow.  The heaviest snowfall reports were from the South Fulton area where 4-6" of snow fell.
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The snow here at my place had melted by noon.
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The next few days will bring cold weather with below normal temperatures.  No precipitation is expected in the short term forecast.  Lows will be in the 20s - brrr mornings.
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Note that the Ohio River is approaching or exceeding flood levels in some counties.  Click here for more information.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 

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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Snow will end by Tuesday evening - no additional snow is in the forecast tonight into Thursday.  

Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps .  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here

Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps.  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation -  click here. 
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range:  November 27th -November 31st
Event:  Below to
much below normal temperatures.  
Frozen Precipitation Risk
Details:  Colder air arrives behind our holiday weekend storm. 
Confidence in my forecastHigh on the cold

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Date Range:  December 1st - December 11th
Event:  Mostly below normal temperatures.  Active pattern.
Severe Risk:  Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  Possible precipitation around the 4th/5th - likely rain
Details:  Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures. 
Confidence in my forecast:  Medium
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Date Range:  December 4th - December 5th
Event:  Near normal temperatures with rain - gusty winds
Severe Risk:  Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  Possible precipitation - likely rain
Details:  Cold front with rain likely - rainfall totals in the 0.25-0.50" range
Confidence in my forecast:  Medium

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Date Range:  December 11th - December 18th
Event:  Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  One or two precipitation events possible - likely around the 8th or 9th and 11th/12th
Details:  Transition period with swings from above to below normal temperatures.  A chance for one or two precipitation events - too soon to make a call on precip type.
Confidence in my forecastLow
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Date Range:  December 17th - December 21st
Event:  Precipitation event - larger storm system.
Severe Risk:  Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  Unknown
Details:  A more significant storm system possible in or near our region.
Confidence in my forecastLow 
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Date Range:  December 27th-30th
Event:  Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:  
Frozen Precipitation Risk
Details:  Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast:  Low


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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance.  I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible.  The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.

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1.  No major changes in the long range forecast.  Colder weather has arrived.  
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The next precipitation event will be Sunday into Monday - perhaps starting as early as Saturday night.  Most likely this will be rain - however, there could be a rain/snow mix.  Will monitor and update in the coming days.
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Sunday's precipitation map
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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