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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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. Video best viewed in full screen mode.
. Video best viewed in full screen mode.
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here.
Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Monday night: Partly cloudy - a chance for a shower over the far western counties. Above normal temperatures.
Lows: in the 54-58 degree range. | Wind: South at 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 42 degrees. Precipitation probability - 20%My confidence in this forecast is very high
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Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds - chance for a shower or thunderstorm - mainly over southern Illinois and southeast Missouri - better chances further west and northwest. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 72-74 degrees. | Wind: South winds at 10-20 mph - gusty. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 64 degrees. Precipitation probability - 30% My confidence in this forecast is very high
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Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy - showers and thunderstorms mainly between 12 am and 6 am Wednesday morning. A couple of severe storms possible. Above normal temperatures.
Lows: around 56-60 degrees | Wind: South winds at 10-20 mph - gusty. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 42 degrees. Precipitation probability - 100%
My confidence in this forecast is very high
My confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday: Cloudy early - early AM showers/storms coming to an end from west to east. Just a few sprinkles left after 9 am - otherwise clearing skies - turning cooler - windy at times. Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 60 early then falling into the 50s. | Wind: West winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 64 degrees. Precipitation probability - 90% before 7 am and then a 30% chance after 7 am (rain moves out a bit later the further east you go in the region - Evansville to Hopkinsville rain will end before 11 am) My confidence in this forecast is high
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Thunderstorms arrive on Tuesday night - Wednesday morning. A few strong or severe storms can't be ruled out. Widespread thunderstorms and showers late Tuesday night will produce 0.25-0.50" of rain with locally heavier amounts. Lightning and gusty winds with the heavier storms - again most of the storms won't arrive until late late Tuesday night and early early Wednesday morning.
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Monitor Tuesday night late for any severe weather watches or warnings - mostly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. I will monitor and update the Facebook page if anything of concern develops.
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Wild card in the forecast will be whether or not a few showers creep into the area on Tuesday or Tuesday afternoon. I think the bulk of the precipitation holds off until late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning.
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Thunderstorms arrive on Tuesday night - Wednesday morning. A few strong or severe storms can't be ruled out. Widespread thunderstorms and showers late Tuesday night will produce 0.25-0.50" of rain with locally heavier amounts. Lightning and gusty winds with the heavier storms - again most of the storms won't arrive until late late Tuesday night and early early Wednesday morning.
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Monitor Tuesday night late for any severe weather watches or warnings - mostly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. I will monitor and update the Facebook page if anything of concern develops.
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Wild card in the forecast will be whether or not a few showers creep into the area on Tuesday or Tuesday afternoon. I think the bulk of the precipitation holds off until late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning.
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Tweaked severe outlook
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Maybe a few storms late in the day - mainly over southeast Missouri and towards the St Louis region of southern Illinois.
.Tuesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Maybe a few storms late in the day - mainly over southeast Missouri and towards the St Louis region of southern Illinois.
Tuesday night : Can't rule out a few severe storms - but mainly towards the evening and overnight hours on Tuesday. Better chance across southeast Missouri in the afternoon/evening then shifting east into Illinois and Kentucky on Tuesday night. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Wednesday: See above - for Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Just the main line which should move out of the area by early Wednesday morning.
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Just the main line which should move out of the area by early Wednesday morning.
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Here is the official Storm Prediction Center's outlook for severe weather - for Tuesday and Tuesday night
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The orange area is where some severe storms are forecast - the yellow area is where they expected thunderstorms but below severe levels (remember a severe thunderstorm is one that produces 1" or larger hail - 58 mph winds or greater and/or a tornado)
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Our next chance of rain and thunderstorms will arrive on schedule - Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. I think the Marion, Illinois to Mayfield, Kentucky will see the line of showers and thunderstorms will arrive between 11 pm Tuesday night and 6 am Wednesday morning.
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Rainfall totals of 0.25"-0.50" can be expected. Locally heavier in a few pockets. Isolated severe thunderstorms can't be ruled out - but the threat appears low. If severe weather were to occur then I believe the main concern would be high winds. I will continue to monitor and update if there are any changes.
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Cooler temperatures on Wednesday. Temperatures will actually fall through the day or hold steady - morning highs will be around 60 then falling into the 50s.
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Thursday and Friday will be dry and cool. We will some frost and/or a freeze on Thursday morning and Friday morning with temperatures down into the upper 20s to middle 30s
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 78 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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Most of this rain will fall on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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Snow is not in our local forecast.
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Snow is not in our local forecast.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry weather :) - here you go. Tuesday and Wednesday wintry precipitation forecast.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: November 13th -November 18th
Event: Active with several periods of showers and thunderstorms
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a call on that subject.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: n/a
Details: Data is showing an active storm pattern - potential for quite a bit of rain and storms
Confidence: Medium
Event: Active with several periods of showers and thunderstorms
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a call on that subject.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: n/a
Details: Data is showing an active storm pattern - potential for quite a bit of rain and storms
Confidence: Medium
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Date Range: November 18th -November 30th
Event: Active weather pattern - will be between the cold air to the north and warm air to the south - multiple storm systems may bring several chances for showers and thunderstorms - occasional shots of cold air - cold air is building in Canada - expect this to dump south at some point towards the end of the month into first week of December - if cold air does not dump south before that then an active pattern with rain/storms will likely occur.
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a forecast on severe weather
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: Potential for occasional shots of cold air with an active pattern - will be near the boundary of cold/warm air
Confidence: Low
Event: Active weather pattern - will be between the cold air to the north and warm air to the south - multiple storm systems may bring several chances for showers and thunderstorms - occasional shots of cold air - cold air is building in Canada - expect this to dump south at some point towards the end of the month into first week of December - if cold air does not dump south before that then an active pattern with rain/storms will likely occur.
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a forecast on severe weather
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: Potential for occasional shots of cold air with an active pattern - will be near the boundary of cold/warm air
Confidence: Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. Active pattern ahead of us...
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I am watching the next storm system for next Sunday and then another one later next week. Showers and possibly some thunderstorms. Some timing issues with the Sunday or Sunday night system. Will monitor and tweak the forecast as it becomes a bit more clear.
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More northern lights are possible in the coming days/week - stay tuned! Here is a story on the subject.
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I do not see any substantial snow or ice threats in our region.
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Here is the NAO forecast - it is going negative. When the NAO goes negative during the fall and winter months it typically means cold weather for our region. Again - this would be a bit down the road. But I think it is coming.
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November is looking as if it will be a bit of a roller coaster in the temperature department - if we do end up with several deep storm systems then we would experience warm air moving up ahead of the storms and then cold air behind the systems. Analogs are showing a cold to very cold December into February.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
. For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-sitehttp://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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