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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Video update is best viewed in full screen mode - for higher resolution.
Video update is best viewed in full screen mode - for higher resolution.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Tuesday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Above normal temperatures.
Lows: in the 54-58 degree range. | Wind: South at 10-20 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 42 degrees. Precipitation probability - 100%My confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday: Colder - windy at times - Showers ending early - ending first across southern Illinois and western Kentucky - then shifting east through the day. Temperatures falling through the day. Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 58 degrees early in the morning and then falling through the afternoon. | Wind: West/northwest winds at 10-20 mph - gusty. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 64 degrees. Precipitation probability - 80% early (before 7 am) and then 20% chance before noon. My confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday night: Clearing and colder. Below normal temperatures.
Lows: around 29-34 degrees | Wind: West/northwest winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 42 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is very high
My confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday: Mostly sunny and cool. Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 50 degrees. | Wind: West winds at 10-20 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 64 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0% My confidence in this forecast is high
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FREEZE on Thursday night with lows in the middle to upper 20s across the region.
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Thunderstorms tonight. Can't 100% rule out a severe thunderstorm but the risk is low. The better risk would be the further west you go in the region - southeast Missouri towards the St Louis region - western half of southern Illinois. Thunderstorms that do occur tonight could produce a heavy downpour and gusty winds. Lightning, of course.
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Monitor for any severe weather watches or warnings - mostly over southeast Missouri and the western part of southern Illinois. The threat for severe weather over far southern Illinois and western Kentucky is low - not zero but low.
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Wild card will be low temperatures on Wednesday night - I am thinking a few spots could see upper 20s.
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Thunderstorms tonight. Can't 100% rule out a severe thunderstorm but the risk is low. The better risk would be the further west you go in the region - southeast Missouri towards the St Louis region - western half of southern Illinois. Thunderstorms that do occur tonight could produce a heavy downpour and gusty winds. Lightning, of course.
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Monitor for any severe weather watches or warnings - mostly over southeast Missouri and the western part of southern Illinois. The threat for severe weather over far southern Illinois and western Kentucky is low - not zero but low.
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Wild card will be low temperatures on Wednesday night - I am thinking a few spots could see upper 20s.
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Tweaked winds and temperatures. Increased rainfall totals.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Tuesday night: Widespread thunderstorms tonight. A few severe thunderstorms can't be ruled out - the threat appears low and the threat appears greatest over southeast Missouri and then towards the St Louis region. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - widespread showers and thunderstorms tonight across the region. Lightning and gusty winds possible.
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Tuesday night: Widespread thunderstorms tonight. A few severe thunderstorms can't be ruled out - the threat appears low and the threat appears greatest over southeast Missouri and then towards the St Louis region. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - widespread showers and thunderstorms tonight across the region. Lightning and gusty winds possible.
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Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Early in the morning hours across parts of western Kentucky - otherwise storms will be ending most likely before 7 am - see above information.
.Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Early in the morning hours across parts of western Kentucky - otherwise storms will be ending most likely before 7 am - see above information.
Wednesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice..
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Here is the official Storm Prediction Center's outlook for severe weather - for Tuesday and Tuesday night
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The orange area is where some severe storms are forecast - the yellow area is where they expected thunderstorms but below severe levels (remember a severe thunderstorm is one that produces 1" or larger hail - 58 mph winds or greater and/or a tornado)
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: A storm system is fast approaching the region from the west. You may have heard about the tornadoes in Oklahoma last night. These tornadoes caused some damage to homes. I grabbed a couple of images off Channel 9 (Oklahoma City - Gary England). Click images for real view size.
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This same weather system will spread showers and thunderstorms into our region tonight and into Wednesday morning. Right now I am thinking that far southern Illinois and western Kentucky will see the best chance for rain after 9 pm and before 6 am tomorrow morning.
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Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing this evening and into the overnight hours over southeast Missouri and the western half of southern Illinois - west first then spreading east overnight - then ending from west to east early tomorrow morning.
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Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing this evening and into the overnight hours over southeast Missouri and the western half of southern Illinois - west first then spreading east overnight - then ending from west to east early tomorrow morning.
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Widespread thunderstorms are likely tonight - however, widespread severe weather is NOT anticipated. A couple of severe thunderstorm may occur - probably the best chance for a severe thunderstorm would be over southeast Missouri and the western part of southern Illinois. Instability is lacking. Wind fields are strong - but without instability the threat for severe weather will remain low.
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Rainfall totals of 0.50"-1.00" can be expected tonight and Wednesday morning. Locally heavier in spots.
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Here is the 12 hour probability of precipitation maps - in other words "what is the chance that it will rain over this 12 hour time span" - this is from 7 pm tonight until 7 am tomorrow morning. This map shows a 90-100% chance for rain.
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Let me zoom that in for you - and remember these maps ARE available to you for free on the web-site - here
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A widespread freeze event will occur on Thursday night...
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Here is the 12 hour probability of precipitation maps - in other words "what is the chance that it will rain over this 12 hour time span" - this is from 7 pm tonight until 7 am tomorrow morning. This map shows a 90-100% chance for rain.
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Let me zoom that in for you - and remember these maps ARE available to you for free on the web-site - here
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A widespread freeze event will occur on Thursday night...
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Much cooler air will move into the region on Wednesday. Expect gusty winds and falling temperatures through the day. Temperatures will far to near freezing on Thursday morning and likely below freezing on Friday morning. Upper 20s and lower 30s will likely occur on Friday morning across much of our region.
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Thursday and Friday/Saturday will be dry.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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Snow is not in our local forecast.
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Snow is not in our local forecast.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry weather :) - here you go. Tuesday and Wednesday wintry precipitation forecast.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: November 13th -November 18th
Event: Active with several periods of showers and thunderstorms
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a call on that subject.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: n/a
Details: Data is showing an active storm pattern - potential for quite a bit of rain and storms
Confidence: Medium
Event: Active with several periods of showers and thunderstorms
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a call on that subject.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: n/a
Details: Data is showing an active storm pattern - potential for quite a bit of rain and storms
Confidence: Medium
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Date Range: November 18th -November 30th
Event: Active weather pattern - we will be between the cold air to the north and warm air to the south - multiple storm systems may bring several chances for showers and thunderstorms - occasional shots of cold air - cold air is building in Canada - expect this to dump south at some point towards the end of the month into first week of December - if cold air does not dump south before that then an active pattern with rain/storms will likely occur.
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a forecast on severe weather
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: Potential for occasional shots of cold air with an active pattern - will be near the boundary of cold/warm air
Confidence: Medium
Event: Active weather pattern - we will be between the cold air to the north and warm air to the south - multiple storm systems may bring several chances for showers and thunderstorms - occasional shots of cold air - cold air is building in Canada - expect this to dump south at some point towards the end of the month into first week of December - if cold air does not dump south before that then an active pattern with rain/storms will likely occur.
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a forecast on severe weather
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: Potential for occasional shots of cold air with an active pattern - will be near the boundary of cold/warm air
Confidence: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. Active pattern ahead of us...
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I am watching the next storm system for Sunday and then unsettled into Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. Showers and possibly some thunderstorms. Some timing issues with the Sunday or Sunday night system - as far as rain chances. Will monitor and tweak the forecast as it becomes a bit more clear.
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I am backing off the cold for now - it appears we may be between the cold and the warm zone in the coming 2 week period. This means active weather (wet at times) - the bigger dump of colder air may have to wait until the very end of November and into the first part of December. Watching for blocking signals to get the cold air rolling south.
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Here is the latest 8-14 day outlook - you can see the odds favor above normal temperatures for the period November 17th through the 21st
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But the cold air is building and the GFS model has been showing this along with other models. The problem is the timing. The idea of blocking has merit and signals are pointing to that occurring towards the end of the month and the first part of December. When this happens the cold air will dump southward.
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GFS has been too quick on the idea - and the GFS also has a cold bias. But - this map gives you the idea of what is building to the north - this is the temperature forecast for week two (around the 22nd-24th) - you can see a lot of cold air to the north.
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The big question is when does it head south and southeast. Click image for real view size.
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More aurora's (northern lights) are possible in the coming days/week - stay tuned! Here is a story on the subject.
But the cold air is building and the GFS model has been showing this along with other models. The problem is the timing. The idea of blocking has merit and signals are pointing to that occurring towards the end of the month and the first part of December. When this happens the cold air will dump southward.
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GFS has been too quick on the idea - and the GFS also has a cold bias. But - this map gives you the idea of what is building to the north - this is the temperature forecast for week two (around the 22nd-24th) - you can see a lot of cold air to the north.
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The big question is when does it head south and southeast. Click image for real view size.
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More aurora's (northern lights) are possible in the coming days/week - stay tuned! Here is a story on the subject.
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I do not see any substantial snow or ice threats in our region.
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Here is the NAO forecast - it is going negative. When the NAO goes negative during the fall and winter months it typically means cold weather for our region. Again - this would be a bit down the road a littel bit - just one of the signals meteorologists keep an eye on.
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November is looking as if it will be a bit of a roller coaster in the temperature department - if we do end up with several deep storm systems then we would experience warm air moving up ahead of the storms and then cold air behind the systems. Analogs are showing a cold to very cold December into February.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
. For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-sitehttp://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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