November 28th and 29th: Chilly with more precipitation in the forecast

November 28th and 29th, 2011

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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Monday night:  Windy at times - cold - raw.  Rain or a mixture of rain/snow/sleet.  Some slushy accumulation possible in some areas. Heaviest accumulation most likely over the Missouri Bootheel into western Tennessee/eastern Arkansas.  
Below normal temperatures.
Lows: in the lower to middle 30s  |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Wind:  North winds at 10-20 mph - gusty.
Precipitation probability - 100%   | Rainfall totals:  0.20-0.50"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Tuesday:   Cold rain or a mixture of rain/sleet/snow.  Thundersnow in the heaviest bands.  Heavier bands of snow will produce 1-2" of snow per hour rates.  This will cause traffic problems in some counties.    
Below normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 37-40 degrees.  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.
Wind: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph.  
Precipitation probability - 100%  Rainfall totals:   0.20-0.40" 
Confidence in this forecast is high

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Tuesday night:   Mostly cloudy skies.  Cold.
Below normal temperatures.
Lows: in the middle 20s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Wind:  Northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10%  Rainfall totals: 0" 
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Wednesday:  A few clouds - cool.

Below normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 44 degrees  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Wind: Westerly winds at 5-10 mph.   
Precipitation probability - 0%  Rainfall totals:  0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Rain again tonight and Tuesday - some counties will see the rain mix with or change to snow.  Can't rule out some slushy accumulations - especially if a band or two of heavier snow forms.  Some areas will remain mostly rain.
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Other than the chance for some slushy accumulation of snow - some roads will become slick and hazardous..

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The obvious wild card in this forecast is where and when rain changes to snow over our region.  Difficult forecast and it is not clear cut.  Some areas will remain all rain while others will change to snow - a wet snow.  Slushy accumulation not out of the question.  Use caution in the heavier snow bands.
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Tweaked precipitation type.


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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.  More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or 
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here 
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Monday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  A mix of snow and sleet possible in some of our counties.
Monday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Some snow or sleet likely in some of our counties..
Tuesday:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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Tuesday night :
  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Wednesday: 
Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: 
Rain rain rain - can't seem to shake the rain.  Rain will continue into tonight and Tuesday as the upper level low moves through our region.  Don't be surprised to see some bands of heavier snow in a few counties.  The exact placement of that snow is in question.  Keep that in mind as the evenings weather unfolds.  There will be some snow in our region.
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Rain and snow will come to an end on Tuesday afternoon as the storm finally pulls away.
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Can't rule out some heavy wet snow in some counties - several inches of snow may occur - especially over the Missouri Bootheel, eastern Arkansas, and western Tennessee.  But the bands could extend further north into the rest of the area. In the heaviest bands of snow you can expect 2-4" of snow.
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Colder weather for the rest of the week - lows down into the 20s.  A bit on the cold side.
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The next storm system will move into the region on Sunday into Monday.  A bit too far off to make a call on rainfall totals with that system and/or if there might be some wintry mix included.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 

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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Can't rule out some snow mixed with the rain at times.  Slushy accumulation will be possible in counties that switch over to all snow.  Would not be surprised to see several inches fall over parts of the region - wet snow.

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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps .  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here

Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps.  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation -  click here. 
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range:  November 27th -November 31st
Event:  Below to
much below normal temperatures.  Can't rule out some mixed precipitation.
Severe Risk:  None
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  Some mixed precipitation can't be ruled out
Details:  Colder air arrives behind our holiday weekend storm. 
Confidence in my forecastHigh on the cold

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Date Range:  December 1st - December 11th
Event:  Mostly below normal temperatures.  Active pattern.
Severe Risk:  Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  Possible precipitation around the 3rd/5th
Details:  Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures.  Possible precip around the 3rd/5th - rain or a mix.  Too soon to make a call on precip type.
Confidence in my forecast:  Medium
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Date Range:  December 12th - December 18th
Event:  Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  One or two precipitation events possible
Details:  Transition period with swings from above to below normal temperatures.  A chance for one or two precipitation events - too soon to make a call on precip type.
Confidence in my forecastLow
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Date Range:  December 16th - December 22nd
Event:  Precipitation event - larger storm system.
Severe Risk:  Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  Unknown
Details:  A more significant storm system possible in or near our region.
Confidence in my forecastLow 
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Date Range:  December 27th-30th
Event:  Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:  
Frozen Precipitation Risk
Details:  Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast:  Low


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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance.  I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible.  The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.

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1.  No major changes made in the extended forecast.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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