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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Video update is best viewed in full screen mode - for higher resolution.
Video update is best viewed in full screen mode - for higher resolution.
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Thursday night: A freeze - cold. Below normal temperatures.
Lows: in the 26-32 degree range (lows will occur early in the am hours). | Wind: Northwest at 5 mph become southerly by morning. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 42 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%My confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday: Mostly sunny sky conditions - not as cool. Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 58-62 degrees. | Wind: Southwest winds at 10-20 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 64 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%My confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday night: Clear and cool. Below normal temperatures.
Lows: around 38-42 degrees | Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 42 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is very high
My confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday: Partly sunny and warmer. Near normal temperatures.
Highs: around 62-65 degrees. | Wind: South winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 64 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0% My confidence in this forecast is high
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FREEZE on Thursday night with lows in the middle to upper 20s across the region.
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A hard freeze is likely tonight - temperatures will fall into the 20s over most of the region. Also gusty winds on Saturday and Sunday - boaters use caution.
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Other than protecting any sensitive outdoor plants - no.
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No wild cards in the short term forecast.
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A hard freeze is likely tonight - temperatures will fall into the 20s over most of the region. Also gusty winds on Saturday and Sunday - boaters use caution.
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Other than protecting any sensitive outdoor plants - no.
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No wild cards in the short term forecast.
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Tweaked winds
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Friday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Here comes the first widespread freeze of the winter. Cold high pressure will dominate into Friday - this means a cold night on tap for the region. How cold?
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The favored cold spots (near fields and rural areas) may see temperatures in the 25-28 degree range - most areas will experience upper 20s/lower 30s. Lows may occur earlier than usual - probably between 12 am and 3 am)
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I ran the SREF Plumes on temperatures for far southern Illinois and a number of them dip below 30 degrees tonight. Friday night will not be as cold.
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Dry weather for Friday and Saturday.
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Winds will pick up on Saturday with southerly winds gusting over 20 mph - same for Sunday. Boaters just use a little extra caution on area lakes.
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McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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Snow is not in our local forecast.
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Snow is not in our local forecast.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - don't forget you can view these maps yourself by clicking here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: November 13th -November 15th
Event: Active with several periods of showers and thunderstorms
Severe Risk: Too soon to forecast severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: n/a
Details: Data is showing an active storm pattern - main low pressure area may impact the region on Monday night into Tuesday night.
Confidence: Medium
Event: Active with several periods of showers and thunderstorms
Severe Risk: Too soon to forecast severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: n/a
Details: Data is showing an active storm pattern - main low pressure area may impact the region on Monday night into Tuesday night.
Confidence: Medium
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Date Range: November 19th -November 30th
Event: Active weather pattern - we will be between the cold air to the north and warm air to the south - multiple storm systems may bring several chances for showers and thunderstorms - occasional shots of cold air - cold air is building in Canada. Expect several significant cold waves towards the end of the month into first part of December.
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a forecast on severe weather
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: Potential for occasional shots of cold air with an active pattern - will be near the boundary of cold/warm air - plenty of chances for rain and possible thunderstorms.
Confidence: Medium
Event: Active weather pattern - we will be between the cold air to the north and warm air to the south - multiple storm systems may bring several chances for showers and thunderstorms - occasional shots of cold air - cold air is building in Canada. Expect several significant cold waves towards the end of the month into first part of December.
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a forecast on severe weather
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: Potential for occasional shots of cold air with an active pattern - will be near the boundary of cold/warm air - plenty of chances for rain and possible thunderstorms.
Confidence: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. A roller coaster ride in the temperature department over the coming 2 week period. That is typical for November. Warm ahead of storm systems and cold behind them. Remember that low pressure areas rotate counterclockwise. This pulls moisture and warm air up ahead of them (assuming they pass to our north and west) and then cold air behind them.
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I am watching the next storm system for Sunday and then unsettled into Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. Showers and possibly some thunderstorms. Some timing issues with the Sunday or Sunday night system - as far as rain chances. Will monitor and tweak the forecast as it becomes a bit more clear.
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Here is what the GFS is showing from www.wright-weather.com - one model we use - the track of the low is still in question. But you get the general idea
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Low confidence on the timing of this next system - the EC model is showing an earlier arrival - the GFS shows more of a Tuesday into Tuesday night event - some of the data strings the system out a bit more and is not as organized. Plenty of time to fine tune this part of the long range outlook.
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More aurora's (northern lights) are possible in the coming days/week - stay tuned! Here is a story on the subject.
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Here is what the GFS is showing from www.wright-weather.com - one model we use - the track of the low is still in question. But you get the general idea
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Low confidence on the timing of this next system - the EC model is showing an earlier arrival - the GFS shows more of a Tuesday into Tuesday night event - some of the data strings the system out a bit more and is not as organized. Plenty of time to fine tune this part of the long range outlook.
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More aurora's (northern lights) are possible in the coming days/week - stay tuned! Here is a story on the subject.
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I do not see any substantial snow or ice threats in our region.
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The MJO is heading into the 7 - 8 and 1 category over the next couple of weeks. Typically that would put us on the boundary between the cold and warm air - battle zone for storm systems would be my best guess with bouts of cold air as storms push by. Here is the MJO forecast and then the last two charts are how temps usually response to the region numbers. Joe Bastardi is big on the MJO charts.
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And here is the corresponding temperature maps that can be expected with the MJO in region 7-8 and 1. If it were a bit later in winter then the colder thoughts would prevail even more. But remember the NAO is also going negative - as I have been talking about for the last week. Another sign that cold air is likely going to head south.
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Here is the NAO forecast - it is going negative. When the NAO goes negative during the fall and winter months it typically means cold weather for our region. Again - this would be a bit down the road a littel bit - just one of the signals meteorologists keep an eye on.
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November is looking as if it will be a bit of a roller coaster in the temperature department - if we do end up with several deep storm systems then we would experience warm air moving up ahead of the storms and then cold air behind the systems. Analogs are showing a cold to very cold December into February.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
. For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-sitehttp://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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