November 16th-17th: Cooler weather - stormy pattern late this weekend/next week

November 16th and 17th, 2011


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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Wednesday night:  Increasing clouds from the west.  
Below normal temperatures.
Lows:  in the lower 30s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 39 degrees.  

Wind:North winds at 10-15 mph.  
Precipitation probability - 10%  | Rainfall totals:  0"
My confidence in this forecast is high
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Thursday:  Mostly sunny skies - cool.   
Below normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 49 degrees.  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.  


Wind: Northwest at 10-15 mph.  
Precipitation probability - 0%  Rainfall totals:   0" 
My confidence in this forecast is very high

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Thursday night:  Clear skies.  Fog possible.   
Below normal temperatures.
Lows: around 25-32 degrees |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 39 degrees.  

Wind:  Calm winds 
Precipitation probability - 0%  Rainfall totals: 0" 
My confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday:  Mostly sunny skies.  
Below normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 54 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.   


Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph.  
Precipitation probability - 0%  Rainfall totals:  0"
My confidence in this forecast is very high
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Not major concerns
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No
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No wild cards in this forecast



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No major changes in the ongoing forecast.


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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.  More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here 
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Wednesday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Thursday:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday night :
  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Thursday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Friday: 
Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE:  Don't forget WINTER WEATHER PREPAREDNESS WEEK HAS ARRIVED - CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION!

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No major issues for the next 24-48 hours.  Cool temperatures - breezy at times this weekend.  Next rain chance enters the picture on Saturday night and Sunday - lasting into Tuesday.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 

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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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No rain in the forecast
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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Snow is not in our local forecast.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps .  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here

Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps.  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation -  click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range:  November 20th -November 23rd
Event:  Unsettled with several periods of showers and thunderstorms - locally heavy rain.  Windy at times.
Severe Risk: Too soon to forecast severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  n/a
Details:  Appears wet with several low pressure areas in the central United States 
Confidence:  Medium
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Date Range:  November 25th -December 2nd
Event:  Active weather pattern - we will be between the cold air to the north and warm air to the south - multiple storm systems may bring several chances for showers and thunderstorms - occasional shots of cold air - cold air is building in Canada.  Expect several significant cold waves towards the end of the month into first part of December.  Does this mean snow?  Still too early to call.
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a forecast on severe weather
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  Unknown
Details:  Potential for occasional shots of cold air with an active pattern - will be near the boundary of cold/warm air - plenty of chances for rain and possible thunderstorms. 
Confidence:  Low
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Date Range:  November 27th -December 10th
Event:  Below normal temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  Unknown
Details:  I continue to watch the cold air building up north - the pattern favors a dump of cold air towards the end of the month or into the beginning of December.  Unsettled pattern overall for the next three weeks.  Wet with numerous systems producing rain and thunderstorm chances.
Confidence:  Low  
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance.  I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible.  The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.

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1.  Shortened version today - see the above long range forecast for the next events.  Rainfall totals on Sunday through Tuesday could be in the 1-2" range.  Will need to monitor for locally heavy rain.  I need to see where the front ends up with this next event.
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As a weather person I can tell you that I am interested in the pattern that is unfolding - have been for a few weeks.  The curiosity continues to build.  Potential for significant weather events over the coming weeks - dramatic changes.  Dramatic changes.  But - what does that mean for you and me?  That is the question.
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Stay tuned

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November is looking as if it will be a bit of a roller coaster in the temperature department - if we do end up with several deep storm systems then we would experience warm air moving up ahead of the storms and then cold air behind the systems.  Analogs are showing a cold to very cold December into  February - with a cooler than average spring and stormy/wet spring. The cold air this winter will depend on the blocking - more blocking = colder weather.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here





All other states- Click Here
.  For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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