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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
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Wind: Calm winds.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0" or less.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wind: Northeast/easterly winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Flood warnings have been issued for some locations along the Ohio River. For more information about these warnings - click here and then zoom down to your local level.
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No - other than river interests.
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No major wild cards in the current forecast.
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Click Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
Thursday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Wednesday night: Mostly clear and cold. .
Below normal temperatures.
Lows: generally in the middle 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.Below normal temperatures.
Wind: Calm winds.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0" or less.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday: Mostly sunny and cool.
Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 44-48 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.Below normal temperatures.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday night: Mostly clear skies - cold.
Below normal temperatures.
Below normal temperatures.
Lows: in the middle to upper 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Wind: South winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: South winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday: A few clouds. Not quite as cool.
Highs: around 48-52 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.Below normal temperatures.
Wind: Northeast/easterly winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Flood warnings have been issued for some locations along the Ohio River. For more information about these warnings - click here and then zoom down to your local level.
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No - other than river interests.
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No major wild cards in the current forecast.
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No major changes in the short range forecast.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Thursday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: The Ohio River is starting to flood in some of our local counties - for the latest information on these river stages - click here.
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The weather will be fairly calm for the next couple of days. Can't complain about calm weather - not after our 6-10" of rain over the last couple of weeks.
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The next widespread rain event arrives on Saturday night and will continue into Sunday night. Rainfall totals of 0.40-0.80" appear likely. Severe weather is not anticipated - a rumble of thunder will be possible.
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The probabilities forecast for this next rain event - for the entire event (Saturday through Sunday night)
There will be a 100% chance of 0.10-0.25" of rain falling - excellent or near certain chance - a ten out of ten chance
There will be a 90% chance of 0.25-0.50" of rain falling - excellent chance of occurring - a nine out of ten chance
There will be a 60% chance of 0.50-0.75" of rain falling - likely chance of occurring- a six out of ten chance
There will be a 50% chance of 0.75-1.00" of rain falling - a good chance of occurring - a five out of ten chance
There will be a 30% chance of 1.00-1.50" of rain falling - a low chance of occurring - a three out of ten chance
There will be a 10% chance of 1.50-2.00"+ of rain falling - a very low chance of occurring - a one out of ten chance
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There could be some rain showers - especially over the eastern half of the region on Monday. Then questions remain on what happens Monday afternoon into Monday night/Tuesday.
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The American models are likely moving the system through our region too fast. Discounting those for now - the southeast ridge is strong. The European models seem to have a better grasp on the potential for the system to slow down a bit on Sunday/Sunday night. Thus potentially extending our rain chances a bit longer.
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Another storm system may impact the region on Monday night and Tuesday (low confidence on whether this unfolds or not). See the long term discussion for this event (bottom of the page).
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Precipitation maps for tomorrow through Sunday - see time stamps at the top of each graphic.
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HEADLINE: The Ohio River is starting to flood in some of our local counties - for the latest information on these river stages - click here.
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The weather will be fairly calm for the next couple of days. Can't complain about calm weather - not after our 6-10" of rain over the last couple of weeks.
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The next widespread rain event arrives on Saturday night and will continue into Sunday night. Rainfall totals of 0.40-0.80" appear likely. Severe weather is not anticipated - a rumble of thunder will be possible.
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The probabilities forecast for this next rain event - for the entire event (Saturday through Sunday night)
There will be a 100% chance of 0.10-0.25" of rain falling - excellent or near certain chance - a ten out of ten chance
There will be a 90% chance of 0.25-0.50" of rain falling - excellent chance of occurring - a nine out of ten chance
There will be a 60% chance of 0.50-0.75" of rain falling - likely chance of occurring- a six out of ten chance
There will be a 50% chance of 0.75-1.00" of rain falling - a good chance of occurring - a five out of ten chance
There will be a 30% chance of 1.00-1.50" of rain falling - a low chance of occurring - a three out of ten chance
There will be a 10% chance of 1.50-2.00"+ of rain falling - a very low chance of occurring - a one out of ten chance
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There could be some rain showers - especially over the eastern half of the region on Monday. Then questions remain on what happens Monday afternoon into Monday night/Tuesday.
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The American models are likely moving the system through our region too fast. Discounting those for now - the southeast ridge is strong. The European models seem to have a better grasp on the potential for the system to slow down a bit on Sunday/Sunday night. Thus potentially extending our rain chances a bit longer.
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Another storm system may impact the region on Monday night and Tuesday (low confidence on whether this unfolds or not). See the long term discussion for this event (bottom of the page).
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Precipitation maps for tomorrow through Sunday - see time stamps at the top of each graphic.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Snow is not in our local forecast through Saturday.
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Snow is not in our local forecast through Saturday.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
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Don't forget we have winter weather precipitation type radar, as well
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: December 1st - December 11th
Event: Mostly below normal temperatures. Active pattern.
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Watching the 10th or 11th for a precip event.
Details: Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures. Several chances for precipitation during this time frame.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: December 3rd - December 5th
Event: Near normal temperatures with rain - gusty winds - locally heavy rain possible in some counties
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather. Thunder possible.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Precipitation - most likely rain
Details: Cold front with rain likely - rainfall totals in the 0.40-0.80" range
Confidence in my forecast: Very high.
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Date Range: December 1st - December 11th
Event: Mostly below normal temperatures. Active pattern.
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Watching the 10th or 11th for a precip event.
Details: Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures. Several chances for precipitation during this time frame.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: December 3rd - December 5th
Event: Near normal temperatures with rain - gusty winds - locally heavy rain possible in some counties
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather. Thunder possible.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Precipitation - most likely rain
Details: Cold front with rain likely - rainfall totals in the 0.40-0.80" range
Confidence in my forecast: Very high
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Date Range: December 5th - December 6th
Event: Precipitation event
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possible precipitation
Details: Southern wave moves up along the front that pushes through on Sunday and Sunday night. If this wave is far enough north then additional precipitation chances may occur on Monday night and Tuesday. It may be cold enough to produce frozen precipitation - confidence in this scenario is low.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Date Range: December 11th - December 18th
Event: Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: One or two precipitation events possible
Details: Transition period with swings from above to well below normal temperatures. A chance for one or two precipitation events - too soon to make a call on precip type. Arctic outbreak possible - with very cold temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
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Date Range: December 17th - December 21st
Event: Precipitation event - larger storm system.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: December 27th-30th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
Event: Precipitation event
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possible precipitation
Details: Southern wave moves up along the front that pushes through on Sunday and Sunday night. If this wave is far enough north then additional precipitation chances may occur on Monday night and Tuesday. It may be cold enough to produce frozen precipitation - confidence in this scenario is low.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Date Range: December 11th - December 18th
Event: Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: One or two precipitation events possible
Details: Transition period with swings from above to well below normal temperatures. A chance for one or two precipitation events - too soon to make a call on precip type. Arctic outbreak possible - with very cold temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
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Date Range: December 17th - December 21st
Event: Precipitation event - larger storm system.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: December 27th-30th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. The most interesting topic for the long range is what happens on Monday night and Tuesday. I will be watching a storm system pull out of the southern United States along a frontal system that will find itself draped across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
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As the cold front pushes through our region on Sunday night it will usher in colder temperatures. The front will then slow its progress eastward as at least one or two waves move up along it. Each wave could bring additional precipitation chances into our region.
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The biggest questions are
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1. Where does the front stall out. Will it stall out close enough to our region to impact the arrival of the colder temperatures - will it stall out close enough to keep precipitation chances going into Tuesday.
2. If a wave of low pressure does move along the front then how far west/northwest will the precipitation spread and what form would the precipitation take.
3. Temperature profiles on Monday night and Tuesday - if precipitation does form then would it be warm enough for all rain or cold enough for a mixture of precipitation types.
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These are questions that will have to be answered over the next few days. For precipitation to move back into our region late on Monday into Tuesday then we have to assume a wave does move up along the front. And this is not for certain.
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The general trend over the last few days have been to develop a decent wave along the stalled out front - if true then this will spread more precipitation back into our region on Monday afternoon/night into Tuesday.
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Bottom line...
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Right now the confidence in this system is low. But well worth watching.
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Trends over the next day or two will be important in determining which direction the forecast may take for Monday night and Tuesday. At least us winter weather fans have something to monitor.
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Potential doesn't always make reality in the weather world. Many snow lover dreams end up crashing on the rocky shores of reality. Especially true in our region!
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As the cold front pushes through our region on Sunday night it will usher in colder temperatures. The front will then slow its progress eastward as at least one or two waves move up along it. Each wave could bring additional precipitation chances into our region.
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The biggest questions are
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1. Where does the front stall out. Will it stall out close enough to our region to impact the arrival of the colder temperatures - will it stall out close enough to keep precipitation chances going into Tuesday.
2. If a wave of low pressure does move along the front then how far west/northwest will the precipitation spread and what form would the precipitation take.
3. Temperature profiles on Monday night and Tuesday - if precipitation does form then would it be warm enough for all rain or cold enough for a mixture of precipitation types.
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These are questions that will have to be answered over the next few days. For precipitation to move back into our region late on Monday into Tuesday then we have to assume a wave does move up along the front. And this is not for certain.
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The general trend over the last few days have been to develop a decent wave along the stalled out front - if true then this will spread more precipitation back into our region on Monday afternoon/night into Tuesday.
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Bottom line...
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Right now the confidence in this system is low. But well worth watching.
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Trends over the next day or two will be important in determining which direction the forecast may take for Monday night and Tuesday. At least us winter weather fans have something to monitor.
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Potential doesn't always make reality in the weather world. Many snow lover dreams end up crashing on the rocky shores of reality. Especially true in our region!
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Another precipitation event is possible around the 10th or 11th of December with very cold temperatures to follow.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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