Holiday weekend forecast!

Friday through Monday - July 1st-4th 

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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

Remainder of tonight - Thursday night: Clear.  Mild.  Near normal temperatures.  Lows:  in the 63-66 degree range  | Wind: Calm.  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.
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Friday:  A mix of sun and clouds - especially over southern Illinois and western Kentucky - some morning showers in Indiana are causing some clouds to spread south into our region.  Above normal temperatures.

Highs:  in the 88-93 degree range.  | Heat index:  Values - 92-96 | Wind:  South winds at 10 mph.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.

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Friday night:  Mostly clear.  Mild.  Above normal temperatures.

Lows: around 66-69 degrees  |  Wind:  Southerly at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.

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Saturday:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Above normal temperatures.

Highs:  around 92-95 degrees   | Heat index:  around 95-100 degrees  | Wind: Southwest winds at 10 mph.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.

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Saturday night:  Partly cloudy - a stray thunderstorm possible late - esp over the northern part of the region - closer to the Farmington, MO line to Evansville - northward (best chances).  Above normal temperatures.

Lows: around 71 degrees  |  Wind: Westerly winds  at 10 mph.  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.  Radar - Click here.

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Sunday:  Partly cloudy and hot.  Scattered thunderstorms possible.   A few storms could produce severe weather - frequent lightning, as well.  Above normal temperatures.

Highs:  around 89-96 degrees  |  Heat index:  In the 97-105 degree range |  Wind: Westerly winds at 10-15 mph.   Normal highs for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.   Radar - Click here.

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Sunday night:  Partly cloudy with a scattered thunderstorms possible - most likely after midnight.  Above normal temperatures.

Lows: around 70 degrees  |  Wind: Easterly winds  at 10 mph.  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.  Radar - Click here.

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Monday - Fourth of July:  Scattered thunderstorms - especially early in the day.  Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain - isolated severe weather also possible.   Evening hours becoming partly cloudy with just a couple of isolated showers or storms remaining.  Most firework displays will be fine.  Above normal temperatures.

Highs:  around 88-93 degrees  |  Heat index:  In the 93-97 degree range |  Wind: Northeasterly/Easterly winds at 10-15 mph - Normal highs for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.    Radar - Click here.

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Tweaked temperatures a little bit - few degrees.  Tweaked cloud cover a bit for Friday.   Also everyone outdoors this weekend (Sunday into Monday) should be aware that trying to pin-point where and when thunderstorms will occur will be extremely difficult.  We are once again returning to the NW flow events.  This means that complexes of storms will form and move into our region from the west/northwest.  These storms could be heavy and a few isolated severe storms will also be possible.

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Best advice - same as last weekend - check radar and updated forecast.  I will update the Facebook page and Twitter.  Radar - Click here.

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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 48 hours...  

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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here

 

Thursday night:   Severe weather is not anticipated  

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Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated 

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Friday night:   Severe weather is not anticipated 

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Saturday:  Severe weather is not anticipated  

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Saturday night:   Isolated storms will be possible - mainly over the northern part of the area.  Best chances from Farmington, Missouri to Evansville, Indiana and then northward.  Check back for updates.

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Sunday:  A few thunderstorms will occur over the region.  Frequent lightning is a concern.  Isolated severe storms could produce gusty winds and hail.  Check back for updates.

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Sunday night: A few thunderstorms will occur over the region.  Frequent lightning is a concern.  Isolated severe storms could produce gusty winds.  Check back for updates.

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Monday:  A few thunderstorms will occur over the region.  Frequent lightning is a concern.  Isolated severe storms could produce gusty winds.  Check back for updates.

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You can learn more about lightning safety by clicking here.

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Here are the graphics for the coming days.  Remember the orange area represents the slight risk (that is what the Storm Prediction Center calls it - not my favorite choice of wording) area for severe thunderstorms.  The orange area means that severe thunderstorms will be possible but will most likely not produce widespread severe weather.  The yellow area represents that areas where some thunderstorms will likely occur - but will remain, for the most part, below severe limits.  A severe storm is one that produces winds of at least 58 mph and quarter size hail or larger.  And/or tornadoes.

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Friday's severe weather outlook graphic.  No concern in our area.

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Then here is the Saturday outlook.  No concern for most of our region - we will monitor northern portions of the region late on Saturday night.  I will stop at Saturday and update Sunday and Monday graphics in future posts.  Remember that these maps are updated several times a day - so check the main link here for the latest outlooks.

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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here

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All other states- Click Here

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HEADLINE:  The holiday weekend has arrived and with it will come warmer temperatures and a return to the northwest flow events.  

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No concerns for Friday into Saturday - warm temps and mostly clear sky conditions.  Winds won't be be bad, either.  So - boaters should be fine.

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We will monitor a frontal system that will arrive on Saturday night and Sunday.  Thunderstorms will once again return to the forecast - especially Sunday into Monday.  As has been the case over the last two weeks - any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain and even isolated severe weather.

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Unfortunately trying to time these events is difficult - at best.  Normally the complexes form at night and then push south/southeast into our region (remember the last few weeks).  However, with the front near our region we also can't rule out some afternoon thunderstorms forming in the heat of the day.

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We will have a fairly strong CAP over the region- remember the CAP keeps thunderstorms from forming.  However, with the northwest flow returning on Sunday into Monday that means that CAP should be weakened.

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I will update the blog each day - keeping most of the graphics the same - but updating the forecast and thoughts on severe weather or thunderstorms in general.

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Significant to major flooding will continue on portions of the Mississippi River and Missouri River basins.  This will be a long summer of flooding for some areas.  We are also concerned that the Ohio River will continue to back up.  This could cause flooding over parts of southern IL and western KY.  Stay tuned.

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You can listen to LIVE reports from Minot, North Dakota (serious river flooding in that city) - click here

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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.

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Campers should not have any problems on Friday into Saturday (day).  Warm temperatures and fairly light wind conditions.  We will have to monitor radar for a few storms on Saturday night - especially near Farmington, Missouri  over to Evansville - northward.  Then better chances for scattered storms or a period or two of thunderstorms will arrive on Sunday into Monday night.  Locally heavy rain will likely occur with any storms that form - also lightning is, of course, always a concern.

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Best advice - check radar from time to time and the Facebook page.  I will update through the weekend and if storms form then I will make a post.

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I hope everyone has a safe holiday weekend!  Enjoy!
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Significant to major flooding is likely to continue across the Missouri Valley in the coming weeks - latest river information - click here.
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To follow the flood information along the Missouri River - click here for a special Facebook page that has been made for those concerned.

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We are going to have to monitor the current pattern - these mesoscale thunderstorm complexes that keep moving through the region can produce heavy rainfall.  This will cause rivers to rise even further.  

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The Ohio River is starting to back up because of the high water levels on the Mississippi River.  This is going to be a concern for quite some time to come (perhaps WELL into the summer months).  Those living along rivers should monitor updated forecasts.

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To view the interactive river map below - click here.  The areas in purple and red are experiencing significant flooding issues.  

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Flooding will continue on rivers in the Missouri Valley and into the Ohio Valley well into the summer months.  Some areas will approach or top their 1993 flood levels.

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This flooding could be enhanced if thunderstorm complexes continue to move over the same areas - Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. Remember that this was exactly the scenario I discussed in the late May summer outlook.  Everything seems to be coming together - as expected.  The biggest question/concern for the summer outlook might end up being whether the temperature part of the forecast verifies.  Time will tell.

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River Forecast Stages - Click Here  

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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours.  Keep in mind that during the summer months heavy thunderstorms can produce excessive amounts of rain in a short period of time.  This map is to give you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Some areas during the summer months will pick up very little precipitation while neighboring areas receive quite a bit.  Thus is the nature of thunderstorms and the summer pattern.
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NO RAIN IS FORECAST IN OUR LOCAL COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS - Check back during the weekend for updates during the Saturday into Monday time frame (when some storms are forecast to occur)

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If you would like to view the 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.

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I also now have thunderstorm probabilities available on the web-site - you can click hour by hour and see where the best chances for thunderstorms will exist.  Here is the link - you can also choose your own region by clicking on a state.

ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.

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Remember you can now view all of the temperature graphics (that you see below) - and more - by clicking here

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Below image - Low temperatures for Friday morning

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Below image - High temperatures for Friday afternoon.

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Below image - Low temperatures for Saturday morning

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Below image - High temperatures for Saturday afternoon

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Below image - Low temperatures for Sunday morning

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Below image - High temperatures for Sunday afternoon.

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Below image - Low temperatures for Monday morning

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Below image - High temperatures for Monday afternoon

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Let's also take a look (the map below) at the expected heat index for tomorrow afternoon.  You can view this map for other days by clicking here.  Remember - the heat index is what the temperature feels like to your body when the temperature and humidity are combined.  Heat index calculator can be viewed by clicking here.

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These maps are for the Friday through Monday time frame - see dates on each map - at the top.

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Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here

Heat safety advice and information - click here

How much above or below normal will high temperatures be tomorrow?

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The map below shows you the departure from normal highs (normal highs are around 82-85 degrees).  This gives you a general idea of the type of weather pattern we are in.  Warmer than normal or cooler than normal?  

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For example if the normal high is 80 degrees and the actual high is 90 degrees then we would be 10 degrees above normal. You can find this map on the web-site, as well - click here.

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First map is for Friday - you can see we are once again creeping back up into the above normal range.  The other maps are for Saturday through Monday - we are starting off July with above normal temperatures - starting to think my thoughts for below normal temperatures in July might be in trouble - however, I will hold out a bit longer as the northwest flow is forecast to solidly return in the coming week.  This means normal to possibly below normal temperatures.

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At least the northwest flow events part of the forecast is panning out.  Definitely concerned about the temperature part of the forecast.  We shall see. 

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These are the record highs and lows for June 29th, 2011.  A total of 24 reports on the 29th.  The purple dots are record low temperatures and the red dots are record high temperatures.  To view the most up to date maps - with details on each record high and low - click here.

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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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Tropical Storm Arlene formed in the Gulf of Mexico.  It is tracking into Mexico.  See the link.

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Additional tropical weather may develop in the Caribbean and Gulf in the coming 7-10 day period.

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You can view satellite images of the tropics by clicking here  - we have a variety of satellite images available on the Weather Observatory web-site. 

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Below is a satellite view from our web-site showing the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic.
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Latest Official National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook - click here.
 
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You can see from the maps (over the last weeks worth of posting) that a large chunk of real estate to our south and west is experiencing drought conditions. You can view these maps by clicking here, as well.
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Here is the moisture anomalies map.  You can see the drought to our southwest.  Portions of our region are extremely wet - moist.  Other portions of our region - west/southwest part could use some rain.  Feast or famine? 

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You can learn more about the current drought by visiting this Climate Prediction Center website - click here.

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You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast maps for temperature and precipitation!  Maps are available by clicking here.

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Check out the precipitation forecast for the upcoming weeks - the thunderstorm complexes that have plagued our region for the last few weeks appear to be returning after our brief spat of hot weather.

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At least this part of the summer forecast is verifying.  Northwest flow event after northwest flow event.  You can see on the precipitation outlook how the above normal region is slanted from northwest to southeast.  An indication of the northwest flow events.

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The green area indicates where precipitation is forecast to be above normal during the July 5th through July 9th time period (Tuesday through Saturday of next week).  Much of this will be along a frontal system draped in or near our region - northwest flow events!

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1. Unsettled pattern returns late this weekend into next week - we will once again find ourselves between the heat ridge and the more active northern edge of the heat ridge.  This means a few more storm chances.  Will monitor - the exact placement of the heat ridge will be important in determining where the thunderstorms will track.

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It could be that we ride this boundary - between above normal temperatures and below normal temperatures into July - that means portions of the region could be quite dry (south and west parts) and then other areas could experience heavy rain.

2.  I continue to be quite concerned about the flood potential this summer of the Missouri and Mississippi River basins.  Some areas will likely approach or top their 1993 levels (very bad flood year)

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3.  Additional tropical development is possible in the Caribbean - several areas of disturbed weather to monitor.  Several data packages are suggesting the potential for a tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week/weekend.  Will monitor and update as this unfolds. 

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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here

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All other states- Click Here

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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

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You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends. 

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Don't forget that our friends at the Paducah, Kentucky US National Weather Service Office now has a Facebook page, as well!  Click here and then hit LIKE at the top of their page.

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management now has a Facebook page?  This is a great way to stay in touch with local officials during and before a natural disaster.  Here is their page - hit LIKE at the top of the button.

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You can also find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson

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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
"We don't control the weather - we just predict it"
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McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

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I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of widespread severe weather episodes.  Basically this is a "heads up" email.  If you would like to subscribe then click here.   

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