Sunday, June 12, 2011: Not as hot - not as humid - storm chances...

Sunday, June 12, 2011
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HEADLINE:  Thunderstorms will come to an end on Saturday night leaving us with partly cloudy skies on Sunday - lower temperatures and lower humidity levels.  We can thank the cold front for the above changes!  I doubt many people will be complaining about the temperature drop. 

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The next chance for thunderstorms will arrive late Sunday night and on/off thunderstorm chances will continue into the work week.  The Storm Prediction Center believes a few of these storms could produce damaging winds on Monday.  Large hail and isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out.
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Temperatures over the next few days will be near normal.  This will be in contrast to the much above normal temperatures we experienced over the last two weeks.
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Storms on Saturday caused some damage in the region - large hail and high winds were reported over parts of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri.  Qulin, Missouri had a school with its roof blown off.  You can read more about the storm damage by clicking here.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 


Did you know that the McCracken County Office of Emergency Management now has a Facebook page?  This is a great way to stay in touch with local officials during and before a natural disaster.  Here is their page - hit LIKE at the top of the button.

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This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox.  There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer


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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky - for your local town - click here
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Sunday:  Partly cloudy.  Near normal to below normal temperatures.
Highs:  in the 80-85 degree range  | Heat index:  Values n/a | Wind: Westerly winds at 10-15 mph.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
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Sunday night:  Partly cloudy.  A slight chance for a thunderstorms late - especially over southeast Missouri.  Near normal to below normal temperatures.
Lows: around 58-63 degrees  |  Wind: Northeast winds at 10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.
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Monday:  Partly sunny with a chance for thunderstorms.  Near normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 81-86 degrees   | Heat index:  Values n/a | Wind: Southeasterly winds at 10-15 mph.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
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Monday night: Partly cloudy with a good chance for thunderstorms around the area.  Near normal temperatures.
Lows: around 61-65 degrees  |  Wind: Easterly winds.  Wind speeds at 5-15 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 63 degrees..
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Tuesday:  Partly sunny.  A chance for a period of showers and thunderstorms.  Near normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 82-87 degrees  | Heat index:  Values n/a | Wind: Southeasterly winds at 10-15 mph over most of the area.  Southern counties may remain in the southerly winds at 10-15 mph.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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River Stages - Click Here

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Also our new forecast page is finished!  Just click the link below to see all of our Weather Observatory graphics - from the severe weather outlook to lake and river stages - extended outlooks - monthly outlooks - satellite - and more!.

Weather Observatory Graphics and Forecast Page
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 72 hours...  


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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

Sunday:  
Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.
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Sunday night: 
Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.  We will monitor the potential for some storms late Sunday night - they would move in from the northwest and head southeast.  Still a bit uncertain on the location or placement of this complex of storms - if it forms.  Right now we believe the most significant risk for any storms would be over the western counties - southeast Missouri region.  Will need to update.
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Monday:  
A few thunderstorms will be possible.  A few of the storms may produce severe weather - high winds and hail being the main threat.  Will monitor and update accordingly.
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Monday Night:  Thunderstorms will be possible - some of the storms could be severe with high winds and hail. 

Tuesday:  A few thunderstorms will be possible.  Uncertain about the severe potential.  Check back.

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Here is the official severe weather outlook graphic for Monday - from the Storm Prediction Center - remember they are the ones that issue the official outlooks for severe weather.  They have our region in a "risk" for severe storms - meaning storms that could produce winds greater than 58 mph - hail to the size of quarters or larger and tornadoes.
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Significant to major flooding is likely to continue across the Missouri Valley in the coming weeks - latest river information - click here.
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How much rain is forecast to fall over the coming days?  Keep in mind that this is broad brushed and individual thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rain.
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Click here for latest maps...
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Remember you can now view all of the temperature graphics (that you see below) - and more - by clicking here
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Below image - Low temperatures for Sunday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Sunday afternoon
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Below image - Low temperatures for Monday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Monday afternoon
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Let's also take a look (the map below) at the expected heat index for tomorrow afternoon.  Remember - the heat index is what the temperature feels like to your body when the temperature and humidity are combined. 
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Not too bad for Sunday - the heat index will not be an issue!  Thanks to the cold front that has moved through the area.
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(remember you can find all of these maps on the web-site - here)

Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here

Heat safety advice and information - click here

How much above or below normal will high temperatures be tomorrow? 
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The map below shows you the departure from normal highs (normal highs are around 79-82 degrees).  For example if the normal high is 80 degrees and the actual high is 90 degrees then we would be 10 degrees above normal. You can find this map on the web-site, as well - click here.
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Zoomed in version of that map - a REFRESHING change of pace!
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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An area of showers and thunderstorms will continue off to the east of Florida.  Any development would be slow.
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Tropical development is not anticipated at this time.
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You can view satellite images of the tropics by clicking here  - we have a variety of satellite images available on the Weather Observatory web-site.
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Latest National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook - click here.

 
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You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts!  Maps are available by clicking here.   



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1.  Temperatures will not be nearly as warm on Sunday into the beginning of the week - we can thank a cold front for this change in the weather pattern.   Temperatures most of next week will be in the 80s - let's keep in mind that we are entering summer - although the recent warm temperatures have been a bit unusual they are not uncommon in our area.  I consider extreme heat to be 100+ and we have yet to see widespread extreme heat in our counties.  The long range outlook continues to indicate that average temperatures during the summer months will end up below normal. 

2.  The long range appears a bit more active with several northwest flow events showing up in the charts.  This means that we may see a bit more rain/thunderstorms than we have been used to over the last couple of weeks.  I don't think anyone will complain about some rain chances?  We will need to monitor these events for the possibility of severe storms - this time of the year it is not uncommon to have storm systems produce high winds and/or hail reports.  Often times these storms move in from the northwest and travel southeast.

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3.  The complex of storms next week could produce locally heavy rain in some counties.  It appears on/off chances for storms will last into the middle/end of the week.  We will need to tweak the forecast each day as we determine the exact placement of storms.
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You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends.
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You can also find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson
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Don't forget that the Paducah, Kentucky US National Weather Service Office now has a Facebook page, as well!  Click here and then hit LIKE at the top of their page. 
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
"We don't control the weather - we just predict it"
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McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here

To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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Other States- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

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I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of widespread severe weather episodes.  Basically this is a "heads up" email.  If you would like to subscribe then click here. 
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