Updated to add a chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon - storms are firing along old boundaries.
.
Thursday, June 16, 2011.
.
HEADLINE: Storm chances come to an end - briefly. Additional storm chances arrive on Thursday night and Friday - then small chances Saturday. Very warm again this weekend with heat index values approaching 100 degrees. Unfortunately.
.
I can't say I was totally satisfied with the forecast over the last four days. I thought we would see more widespread thunderstorm activity than we actually experienced. Granted some areas picked up several inches of rain - many other areas received little or no rainfall. Also the amount of severe weather was less than expected (which was a good thing). We had some reports of severe storms but not nearly as many as forecast. It was a difficult four days of forecasting..
Next system (outside of the Thursday night into Saturday time frame) should arrive towards the middle of next week - this will bring more thunderstorms and perhaps another shot at cooler or at least more seasonable temperatures..
Let's take a look at the moisture anomalies - I am concerned about the dry weather (as many farmers are). However, the long range forecast has been for July and August to bring several rounds of thunderstorms and rain. But, as I have been saying all spring - I am always concerned when drought is knocking on our door - as it is to our southwest. Makes me nervous because drought tends to creep. For now we will stick with the thoughts that our thunderstorm chances will continue on and off into the summer. .
..
It has been extremely dry over the past few weeks. Let's take a look at this map - this shows you how much rain has or has not fallen since June 1st. Feast or famine? Check out the areas to our north - heavy rains have repeatedly fallen over the same areas. Meanwhile in our region - bone dry for some counties.
.
.
Let's zoom out and check out the national map - much of the nation has been dry.
.
.
.
Here is another map of the same - but a bit more detailed. This map was posted on Joseph Renken's Facebook page. BIG BIG concerns about river flooding in the Missouri Valley - could be historic in the coming weeks and months. Not a good situation. Click image for real view size.
.
.
Meanwhile temperatures have been WELL above normal. Which was forecast. So far the summer forecast is SPOT on. However, if the pattern doesn't change soon then I will be worried that we will find ourselves locked into the warm and dry - into the summer months. As a meteorologist I am holding my breath. Hoping the forecast for below normal temperatures in July and August with normal to above normal precipitation verifies. We shall see.
Here is another map of the same - but a bit more detailed. This map was posted on Joseph Renken's Facebook page. BIG BIG concerns about river flooding in the Missouri Valley - could be historic in the coming weeks and months. Not a good situation. Click image for real view size.
.
.
Meanwhile temperatures have been WELL above normal. Which was forecast. So far the summer forecast is SPOT on. However, if the pattern doesn't change soon then I will be worried that we will find ourselves locked into the warm and dry - into the summer months. As a meteorologist I am holding my breath. Hoping the forecast for below normal temperatures in July and August with normal to above normal precipitation verifies. We shall see.
.
This map below shows you just how much above normal we have been in the temperature department. Remember that averaging 2-3 degrees above normal is considered quite a bit. So these values are amazing - extraordinary.
.
.
.
Some parts of the region did experience rain on Wednesday afternoon and evening. You can see the thunderstorm activity (on the satellite image below) on Wednesday night shifting off to our east - as expected. Some of the storms produced damaging winds and quarter size hail in our local counties on Wednesday afternoon and evening.
.
.
.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
---
---
This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky - for your local town - click here.
Remainder of tonight - Wednesday night: Becoming partly cloudy. Lows: in the 63-67 degree range | Wind: Westerly 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.
---
---
Thursday: Partly sunny - a few more clouds over the western half of the region. A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms - area wide. Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures.
Highs: in the 85-89 degree range. | Heat index: Values in the 85-90 degree range | Wind: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph.. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 84 degrees. .
Thursday night: Partly cloudy. A few thunderstorms scattered around the area.. Above normal temperatures.Lows: around 66-71 degrees | Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.
---
Friday: Partly sunny. A few thunderstorms. Near normal to above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 86-89 degrees | Heat index: Values in the 84 to 91 degree range | Wind: South/southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.---
Friday night: Partly cloudy with a chance for a thunderstorm - especially over the Evansville area. Warm. Much above normal temperatures.
Lows: around 68-74 degrees | Wind: Southerly winds. Wind speeds at 5-15 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 64 degrees..---
Saturday: A chance for a few scattered thunderstorms - especially over the northern and eastern counties - towards southeast Illinois/southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky. Otherwise partly cloudy skies. Windy at times and hot/humid with much above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 94-97 degrees | Heat index: Values in the 95 to 102 degree range | Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph over most of the area - gusts to 20-30 mph possible. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 84 degrees..
..
Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here
.
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
.
.
.
Also our new forecast page is finished! Just click the link below to see all of our Weather Observatory graphics - from the severe weather outlook to lake and river stages - extended outlooks - monthly outlooks - satellite - and more!.
Weather Observatory Graphics and Forecast Page
-----------------------------
.
---
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 72 hours...
.
For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.Wednesday night: A few thunderstorms during the evening hours. Isolated severe not out of the question - mainly hail and gusty winds.
.
Thursday: No severe weather is anticipated at this time. The western part of the area - far western parts of southeast Missouri may see a few thunderstorms as a complex moves southeast out of Kansas and western Missouri. The Poplar Bluff area.
.
Thursday night: No severe weather is anticipated at this time. A few thunderstorms will be possible as a warm front approaches.
.
Friday: A few thunderstorms possible. Can't rule out an isolated severe weather event - more likely over the northern and northeast counties. More towards Mt Vernon - Evansville.
.
.of it raining 0.10" at your location between 2 am and 8 am on Wednesday morning"
.
.
This next map - below - shows you what the chances of 0.10" of rain would be at your location between 8 am and 2 pm on Wednesday. Again you can find these maps by clicking here.
.
Remember you can now view all of the temperature graphics (that you see below) - and more - by clicking here
.
.
Below image - Low temperatures for Thursday morning
.
.
Below image - High temperatures for Thursday afternoon
.
.
.
Below image - Low temperatures for Friday morning
.
Below image - High temperatures for Friday afternoon
.
.
.
.
Let's also take a look (the map below) at the expected heat index for tomorrow afternoon. Remember - the heat index is what the temperature feels like to your body when the temperature and humidity are combined.
.
Heat index map is not available this evening..
(remember you can find all of these maps on the web-site - here)
Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here
Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here
Heat safety advice and information - click here
How much above or below normal will high temperatures be tomorrow?
.
The map below shows you the departure from normal highs (normal highs are around 82-85 degrees). For example if the normal high is 80 degrees and the actual high is 90 degrees then we would be 10 degrees above normal. You can find this map on the web-site, as well - click here.
.
.
.
We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
---
--------------------
.
.
You can view satellite images of the tropics by clicking here - we have a variety of satellite images available on the Weather Observatory web-site. .
Latest National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook - click here. --------------------
---
--
You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts! Maps are available by clicking here.
.
1. Weekend temperatures will once again rise into the 90s. Heat index values will be close to 100 degrees. We will once again find ourselves south of the warm front - at least for a few days.
2. Thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday night after midnight and into Saturday - scattered thunderstorms. Once again it is possible that some areas won't see any rain at all - while other areas may see some heavy downpours (same as the past week).
There were a number of record highs and record lows on the 14th - these climate maps are always one day old. I will post the 15th on Thursday.
.
.
You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends.
.
You can also find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson.
Don't forget that the Paducah, Kentucky US National Weather Service Office now has a Facebook page, as well! Click here and then hit LIKE at the top of their page.
---
Meteorologist Beau Dodson---
"We don't control the weather - we just predict it"
.
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
-------------------
.
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
---
---
Other States- Click Here
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
.
I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of widespread severe weather episodes. Basically this is a "heads up" email. If you would like to subscribe then click here.
.
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Officehttp://www.weather.gov/organization.php
.
I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of widespread severe weather episodes. Basically this is a "heads up" email. If you would like to subscribe then click here.
---
This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service!
No comments:
Post a Comment