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A few thunderstorms today - especially the northern and eastern parts of the region. Some of these storms could produce severe weather. See last nights discussion. If any watches or warnings are issued then tune into NOAA Weather Radio or local media for the most up to date information.
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Radars
Severe weather watches and warnings - click here
HEADLINE: Sunday will bring more hot temperatures - a few storms - especially over our north and east counties. Some of the storms could produce a few reports of severe weather. Try to stay cool!
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Remember that leaving children, elderly people, and pets in cars - during the summer heat - can be a deadly combination. .
Record high temperatures stretched across our region on Saturday. The temperature at the Paducah, Kentucky National Weather Service reached 98 degrees. This broke their old record high of 96 degrees set back in 1942. Temperatures at Cairo reached 100 degrees. Quite impressive for this early in the season..
Here is a map showing the extensive area of heat covering the central and eastern United States. This is a snap shot of the apparent temperatures as of 230 pm on Saturday. .
Here is another view of the actual temperatures using GR Earth. Click image for better resolution view.
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CURRENT CONDITIONS are now available on the web-site - this includes temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, and more! Click here
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The summer forecast calls for an early start to the heat and then it will level off some - perhaps even below normal temperaturess once everything is averaged out (June through August). I am not a huge fan of long range forecasting - but that is how it looks for now..
In this extreme weather cycle (that has been going on for the last decade) I am always concerned when the rain stops falling. We certainly don't want or need another drought. .
Keep in mind that during this period of heat and humidity pop-up thunderstorms can occur. The storms are not expected to be widespread and would be scattered at best. I will mention them as a stray thunderstorm in the forecast. Also keep in mind that any storms that manage to form could produce isolated reports of severe weather. Rarely can one rule out a stray severe thunderstorm in this type of air mass (lot of heat and humidity = energy). Wind fields are not overly impressive. Normally for severe weather you would want to see strong wind fields.
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The Storm Prediction Center has placed our far northern and eastern counties in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Sunday. This risk area is along a weak frontal boundary. .
Storms that do form would likely move from the northwest towards the southeast. Best chances for storms will be along a line from St Louis to just west of Evansville and then to Murray - from there eastward. Check radar and listen to NOAA Weather Radio in the event a few storms become severe on Sunday. .
Did you know that the McCracken County Office of Emergency Management now has a Facebook page? This is a great way to stay in touch with local officials during and before a natural disaster. Here is their page - hit LIKE at the top of the button..
Did you know that you can now check the latest current conditions - temperatures/wind speed/dew points and more - we have hundreds of new graphics available to you! Click Here This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky - for your local town - click here---
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. Warm and muggy. A few thunderstorms will be possible. Storms that do form could be on the strong/severe side with isolated severe weather - mostly over our northern and eastern counties. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: in the 93-96 degree range | Heat index: Values in the 98-105 range | Wind: Northwest winds at 10-15 mph a few higher gusts. Winds near thunderstorms can always be stronger. Normal highs are around 81 degrees. .
Sunday night: Partly cloudy. A slight chance for an evening thunderstorm. Well above normal temperatures.Lows: around 68-71 degrees | Wind: East winds at 10 mph. Normal lows are around 60 degrees.
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Monday: Mostly sunny. Hot and humid. A stray thunderstorm will be possible. Well above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 92-96 degrees | Heat index: Values in the 98 to 105 range | Wind: south winds at 10 mph. Normal highs are around 81 degrees.---
Monday night: Mostly clear. A stray thunderstorm can't be ruled out. Well above normal temperatures.
Lows: around 70-72 degrees | Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph. Normal lows are around 60 degrees..---
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. A stray thunderstorm possible. Well above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 91-95 degrees | Heat index: Values in the 98 to 102 range | Wind: southerly winds at 10-15 mph. Normal highs are around 81 degrees..
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Also our new forecast page is finished! Just click the link below to see all of our Weather Observatory graphics - from the severe weather outlook to lake and river stages - extended outlooks - monthly outlooks - satellite - and more!.
Weather Observatory Graphics and Forecast Page
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Remember you can now view all of the temperature graphics - and more - by clicking here
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Below image - Low temperatures for Sunday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Sunday afternoon
Below image - High temperatures for Sunday afternoon
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Below image - High temperatures for Monday afternoon
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Let's also take a look (the map below) at the expected heat index for Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Remember - the heat index is what the temperature feels like to your body when the temperature and humidity are combined.
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And for Sunday - here is the heat index map
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National heat index map (remember you can find all of these maps on the web-site - here)
Heat safety advice and information - click here
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How much above normal will high temperatures be tomorrow? Several degrees! The map below shows you the departure from normal highs (normal highs are around 79-82 degrees). For example if the normal high is 80 degrees and the actual high is 90 degrees then we would be 10 degrees above normal. You can find this map on the web-site, as well - click here.
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Below is the map of the record high and record low temperatures on June 3rd. The purple dots are record low temperatures and the red dots are record high temperatures.
Below is the map of the record high and record low temperatures on June 3rd. The purple dots are record low temperatures and the red dots are record high temperatures.
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Ridge in the east (high pressure) and trough in the west (low pressure). You can view each of the records by clicking here..
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow...
Sunday: A small chance for strong/severe storms - mostly over our northern and eastern counties. The Storm Prediction Center has placed some of our counties in a slight risk zone. Heat index values may top 100 degrees.
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Sunday night: A few evening thunderstorms will be possible.
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Monday: No severe weather is anticipated. A stray thunderstorm can't be ruled out - if a storm were to form then it could produce lightning and gusty winds. Heat index values may be above 100 degrees.
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Monday Night: No severe weather is anticipated. A stray thunderstorm can't be ruled out - if a storm were to form then it could produce lightning and gusty winds.
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Tuesday: No severe weather is anticipated. A stray thunderstorm can't be ruled out - if a storm were to form then it could produce lightning and gusty winds. High heat index values will make it quite uncomfortable to work outside.
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Severe weather outlook for Sunday - the orange area represents where the SPC believes a few severe storms will be possible. Remember that the SPC updates their outlooks several times a day. For the most up to date outlook click here. Text for the outlook - can also be found on that same page - simply hit the day 1 discussion button.
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The yellow area on the map indicates where thunderstorms are possible. Thunderstorms in the yellow area are expected to remain below severe limits.
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A slight risk for severe storms means that a few severe storms will likely occur but they should not be widespread in nature. Remember that a severe thunderstorm by definition is a storm that produces quarter size hail - or larger and winds of at least 58 mph. Tornadoes, of course, as well. Also remember that lightning is a hazard for anyone outdoors. If you can hear thunder then you should seek shelter.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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There is an area of interest in the Caribbean. The main concern is flash flooding over some of the islands. This disturbance will move slowly north/northwest of the coming days. Some slow development is not out of the question..
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Here is another view of the system - click image for better resolution view..
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Latest National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook - click here. Speaking of the tropics - there is an interesting feature off the California coast. This is a beautiful deep low pressure area that is so wound up that you can literally see the cyclone on satellite images. This is not a tropical storm or hurricane - this is simply an unusually deep low pressure system off the coast. You normally will not see a feature like this in June. Perhaps in the winter months - but not in June.
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This storm system is bringing copious amounts of rain to portions of California, Even a few rainfall records were broken. .
Here are two satellite images from GR Earth. Click images for full view. You can also view the satellite by clicking here.
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You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts! Maps are available by clicking here.
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I have some new maps issued today by the National Weather Service. The 6 to 10 day temperature outlook (for June 9th through June 13th) continues to indicate above normal temperatures. Remember - this map shows you the probability of temperatures being below or above normal. The blue would be below normal temperatures - the yellow and orange/red areas indicate above normal temperatures.
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To go along with the temperature map - let's take a look at the precipitation forecast for the 6 to 10 day period and the 8 to 14 day period. Not the best news for farmers. Below normal precipitation is forecast. That does not mean it won't rain - it just means that the odds favor below normal precipitation totals. Keep in mind that in this type of pattern it only takes one or two rounds of thunderstorms to produce locally heavy rain. Something I will be watching for in the coming weeks as the pattern starts to shift towards a more northwest flow (we hope) - possibly bringing some squall line events (see the summer forecast from last week)..
The green areas represent areas where precipitation is likely going to be above normal. The yellow and orange/brown regions indicates below normal precipitation. You can see that "ring of fire" that I mentioned in my summer forecast. Under the high pressure ridge you have dry conditions - around the border of the ridge you normally have showers and thunderstorms. You can see that arch in the above normal precipitation region (again around the northern and eastern part of the high pressure ridge).
This map is for the June 9th through June 13th time frame..
And here is the 8-14 day precipitation outlook. Is it possible that there will be some tropical development in the Caribbean that might move northward? It is something I will be watching in the coming days.
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In this outlook we are in the neutral zone. Perhaps normal precipitation. This would be the June 13th through June 17th time frame..
1. Warm weather to continue into the upcoming week. No big changes in the overall pattern - at least during the upcoming 5-6 day period.
2. Perhaps some more active weather as we push towards the middle/end of this coming week. I have been saying for awhile that the pattern might start to break down towards the middle or end of next week. But - this is a difficult pattern to shake. So - stay tuned.
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3. Keep in mind that my summer forecast is for an early start to summer (what we are seeing right now) and then we level off some as the ridge of high pressure shifts west into the southwest United States. That would leave us with more NW flow events - meaning our systems will move in from the St Louis region - heavy thunderstorms and squall lines. The exact placement of this ring of fire is still in question. But - the NW flow should bring us more season temperatures and normal to perhaps above normal precipitation - when averaged out from June through the end of August.You can also find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson
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Have you joined the email list? I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of severe weather. Basically this is a "heads up" email. If you would like to subscribe then click here...
You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson---
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois- Click Here To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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Other States- Click Here
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