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5 AM Update
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Numerous showers and thunderstorms are moving across the region - some of the storms have produced hail and high winds - frequent lightning - heavy rain. The storms are moving east out of Missouri and south out of Illinois and Indiana..
There are still some questions as to how much they hold together as they move further south into the region - far southern IL and west KY. We need to monitor them in the coming hours. Frequent lightning is being reported with many of the cells..
Latest radars are up and running.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm.
Also here is a satellite image of the storms - quite impressive meso-scale complexes. Click image for real size..
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And radar shows you the numerous bands of storms. Click image for real view size..
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Frequent lightning this morning - all of these dots indicate where a lightning strike has occurred. Impressive display of lightning and energy with this squall line. Time sensitive image - taken at 515 am this morning. Click image for real view size..
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http://weather.weatherobservatory.com/maps/severe/warnings/all/uslowerohvalley.html.
Will tweak forecast numbers below for updated information....
Saturday, June 18, 2011
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Changing the format of the page a bit - I am going to put the most important items at the very top of the blog post - then if you would like to know more about the weather and check out some weather charts/maps (the MEAT) then you can find that below the severe weather forecast. .
This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer ---
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky - for your local town - click here.
Bottom line for the weekend - if you have outdoor plans don't cancel them but be aware of changing weather conditions in the event a thunderstorm or two moves through your local area. If you are camping then take a weather radio or just use common sense, as always. .
Remainder of tonight - Friday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a period or two of thunderstorms across the area. A few of the storms could produce reports of severe weather. The main concern will be high winds. Above normal temperatures. Lows: in the 69-75 degree range | Wind: Southerly 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.
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Saturday: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers and thunderstorms over the area this morning - a few storms may be severe with high winds and hail. Frequent lightning is also occurring - a chance for thunderstorms this afternoon, as well. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: in the 85-90 degree range. | Heat index: Values in the 90-94 degree range | Wind: Southerly winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph at times. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 84 degrees. .
Saturday night: Partly cloudy. A few thunderstorms scattered around the area. Warm. Much above normal temperatures.Lows: around 70-75 degrees | Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph - gusts to 15 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.
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Sunday: Partly sunny and hot. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible - better chances over the northern part of the region. I am going to need to monitor Sunday and storm chances. Some data indicates the CAP will prevent much in the way of storms in our immediate local counties - other data suggests a line of storms will be possible. Watch for updates. Windy at times. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 90-94 degrees | Heat index: Values in the 93-98 degree range | Wind: South/southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.---
Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Much above normal temperatures.
Lows: around 74 degrees | Wind: Southerly winds. Wind speeds at 5-15 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 64 degrees..---
Monday: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. Windy at times with above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 94 degrees | Heat index: Values in the 96-100 degree range | Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph over most of the area - gusts to 20-25 mph possible. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 84 degrees..
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Tweaked the high temperatures for Saturday and Sunday - slightly. Taking into account cloud cover and thunderstorm chances - lowered high temps a couple of degrees - this will also help keep the heat index values down just a little bit..
Also increased thunderstorms chances a bit..
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 48 hours...
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
Friday night: A few thunderstorms. Some severe storms are not out of the question - mainly hail and gusty winds. If a bow echo forms then the risk for strong/high winds will increase. Storms will be moving out of Missouri and will move east/southeast into our region.
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Saturday: Numerous thunderstorms will be possible once again in the region. A few storms may be severe. Large hail and gusty winds being the main threat - lightning.
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Saturday night: Thunderstorms will be possible once again in the region. A few storms may be severe over the area. Large hail and gusty winds being the main threat - lightning.
Friday night: A few thunderstorms. Some severe storms are not out of the question - mainly hail and gusty winds. If a bow echo forms then the risk for strong/high winds will increase. Storms will be moving out of Missouri and will move east/southeast into our region.
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Saturday: Numerous thunderstorms will be possible once again in the region. A few storms may be severe. Large hail and gusty winds being the main threat - lightning.
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Saturday night: Thunderstorms will be possible once again in the region. A few storms may be severe over the area. Large hail and gusty winds being the main threat - lightning.
Sunday: Severe weather could occur over our northern counties - I will need to tweak this part of the forecast as more data becomes available.
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Here are the graphics for Saturday and Sunday. Remember the orange area represents the risk area for severe thunderstorms. The orange area means that severe thunderstorms will likely occur but will most likely not be widespread in nature. The yellow area represents that areas where some thunderstorms will likely occur - but will remain, for the most part, remain below severe limits. A severe storms is one that produces winds of at least 58 mph and quarter size hail or larger. And/or tornadoes.
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Saturday's outlook graphic
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Then here is the Sunday outlook
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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HEADLINE: Thunderstorms brought large hail to portions of the area on Friday morning - I recorded ping pong size hail here at my place. Quite amazing for 7:15 AM in the morning. Other areas reported high winds and hail - mainly over southern Illinois and the northern part of southeast Missouri.
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Additional thunderstorms will likely form this evening over Missouri and move southeast into our counties. Some of these storms could produce large hail and high winds. Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58+ mph winds - hail the size of quarters or larger and/or a tornado. .
A second complex will form over IL and IN and move south during the morning hours on Saturday. This line could produce heavy rain and dangerous lightning. Can't rule out severe weather reports with it, as well. .
Extremely difficult forecast over the next 72 hours. These weak systems that push through the region can trigger heavy thunderstorms - but timing them and placement is nearly impossible to forecast. I can forecast that conditions favor the development of storms and that some of our counties will likely experience heavy downpours with storms that do develop. Pinning it down for each county, though, just isn't possible..
Here is a photo of the hail at my house this morning.
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Also check out this satellite photo from Friday afternoon - this is the complex of storms that raced through parts of southeast Missouri - southern Illinois - and into Kentucky. This complex produced several reports of damaging winds and large hail. Click image for real size view..
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Also boaters note that it will be windy this weekend! .
We will watch another system push towards the area towards the middle and end of next week. This may help usher in cooler temperatures - or at least more seasonable temperatures. I am also watching some disturbances in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, as well. .
Significant to major flooding will continue on portions of the Mississippi River and Missouri River basins. This will be a long summer of flooding for some areas. .
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here .
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If you are camping this weekend there may be some gusty winds on area lakes. Use caution, as always. Some white caps are possible on lakes..
Thunderstorms will likely move through the region on Friday night and Saturday. Some of these storms couple produce high winds and hail. Frequent lightning is always a concern with thunderstorms. .
Warm temps on Saturday and Sunday - but not as hot as we earlier thought because of cloud cover and the front stalling out a bit further south. .
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Significant to major flooding is likely to continue across the Missouri Valley in the coming weeks - latest river information - click here.
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To follow the flood information along the Missouri River - click here for a special Facebook page that has been made for those concerned.
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To follow the flood information along the Missouri River - click here for a special Facebook page that has been made for those concerned.
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River Stages - Click Here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. Keep in mind that during the summer months heavy thunderstorms can produce excessive amounts of rain in a short period of time. This map is to give you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Some areas during the summer months will pick up very little precipitation while neighboring areas receive quite a bit. Thus is the nature of thunderstorms and the summer pattern.
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If you would like to view the 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.
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I suspect this could be underdone in some of our counties - these heavy storms can drop quite a bit of rain in a short amount of time. So - keep that in mind.
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ALSO
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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Remember you can now view all of the temperature graphics (that you see below) - and more - by clicking here
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Below image - Low temperatures for Saturday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Saturday afternoon - THESE TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. If we end up with more storms than expected then lower temps a few degrees.
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Below image - Low temperatures for Sunday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Sunday afternoon
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Let's also take a look (the map below) at the expected heat index for tomorrow afternoon. You can view this map for other days by clicking here. Remember - the heat index is what the temperature feels like to your body when the temperature and humidity are combined. Heat index calculator can be viewed by clicking here.
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THESE NUMBERS MAY BE TOO HIGH IF WE END UP WITH MORE CLOUD COVER THAN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. .
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Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here
Heat safety advice and information - click here
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How much above or below normal will high temperatures be tomorrow? You can see we are moving back into the above normal temperatures category. Some of this will depend on how much cloud cover and precipitation is ongoing in the morning.
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The map below shows you the departure from normal highs (normal highs are around 82-85 degrees). This gives you a general idea of the type of weather pattern we are in. Warmer than normal or cooler than normal?
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For example if the normal high is 80 degrees and the actual high is 90 degrees then we would be 10 degrees above normal. You can find this map on the web-site, as well - click here.
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These are the record highs and lows for June 16th, 2011. A total of 133 reports. The purple dots are record low temperatures and the red dots are record high temperatures. To view the most up to date maps - with details on each record high and low - click here.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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You can view satellite images of the tropics by clicking here - we have a variety of satellite images available on the Weather Observatory web-site. .
Latest National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook - click here. --------------------
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You can see from the maps below that a large chunk of real estate to our south and west is experiencing drought conditions. I also posted the map that shows you how much rain is needed to end the drought. You can view these and other maps by clicking here, as well.
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Portions of our region are starting to experience dry ground conditions. Most farmers realize this already. Those who have planted crops are in need of some rain. We continue to be a pattern that brings scattered chances of rain - some areas pick up quite a bit while neighbors pick up very little. Summer type pattern.
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You can learn more about the current drought by visiting this Climate Prediction Center website - click here.
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You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast maps for temperature and precipitation! Maps are available by clicking here.
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1. Warm this weekend into Monday - high temperatures on Saturday will be dependent on how much cloud cover there is in the morning. A complex or two of storms is forecast to move into and through the region overnight. This could spread clouds into the region that would last into Saturday morning.
2. Some of the storms over the next 24-36 hours could produce severe weather - meaning winds greater than 58 mph and hail the size of quarters or larger. Frequent lightning is always a concern, as well.
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3. Another system will approach the region towards the middle of next week. This system could spark additional thunderstorm chances and also usher in cooler temperatures - at least more seasonable temperatures. It appears severe weather may once again become a threat next week. Stay tuned on that topic. We are nearing the end of June - the summer forecast is for the pattern change to arrive at the end of June into July with more frequent periods of normal to below normal temperatures. We will see how it goes..
4. A major outbreak of severe thunderstorms - including tornadoes will be possible next week across portions of the Missouri Valley - Plains - we will have to see just how far east it makes it. Stay tuned..
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-sitehttp://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends.
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Don't forget that our friends at the Paducah, Kentucky US National Weather Service Office now has a Facebook page, as well! Click here and then hit LIKE at the top of their page.
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management now has a Facebook page? This is a great way to stay in touch with local officials during and before a natural disaster. Here is their page - hit LIKE at the top of the button.
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You can also find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson---
"We don't control the weather - we just predict it"
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McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of widespread severe weather episodes. Basically this is a "heads up" email. If you would like to subscribe then click here.
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