Wednesday, June 22, 2011: Some storm chances - then a brief lull

Wednesday, June 22, 2011 
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

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Remainder of tonight - Tuesday night:  A few showers and thunderstorms.  Isolated severe weather possible.  Locally heavy rain.  Most severe weather should be over the northern parts of southern IL.  Above normal temperatures.  Lows:  in the 70-74 degree range  | Wind: Southerly 5-10 mph.  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.
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Wednesday:  A mix of sun and clouds - a chance for thunderstorms - mainly the eastern part of the area.  Windy.   Normal temperatures.
Highs:  in the 83-86 degree range.  | Heat index:  Values n/a | Wind:  Southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph gusts to 25-30 mph.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 85 degrees.

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Wednesday night:  Becoming partly cloudy.  Normal temperatures.
Lows: around 65 degrees  |  Wind: Southwest/westerly winds at 10-15 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.
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Thursday:  Partly cloudy.   Normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 84-88 degrees   | Heat index:  Values n/a | Wind: South/southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 85 degrees.
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Thursday night:  Increasing clouds with a chance for thunderstorms late.  Below normal to normal temperatures.
Lows: around 63 degrees  |  Wind: Westerly winds.  Wind speeds at 10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.
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Friday:  Partly cloudy.  A chance for thunderstorms.  Below normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 82 degrees  | Heat index:  n/a | Wind: Westerly winds at 10-15 mph (higher gusts) - Normal highs for this time of the year are around 85 degrees.

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Tweaked temperatures a bit - also tweaked wind speeds for the next few days.  Removed precip chances for Wednesday night and Thursday (day).


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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 48 hours...  



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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here

Tuesday night: 
A few thunderstorms could produce reports of severe weather.  Main concern will be high winds and hail.  Especially over the northern half of southern IL and northern parts of southeast MO.  Lightning is also a concern.  Locally heavy downpours.
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Wednesday: 
A good chance for thunderstorms.  A few of the storms may produce damaging winds and hail.  Mainly over the eastern half of the region - that would be from southeast Illinois - Evansville area and then south to KY Lakes - eastward. 
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Wednesday night:  
Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Thursday: 
Severe weather is not anticipated at this time. An afternoon thunderstorm is possible.
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Lightning Safety week has arrived!  You can learn more about lightning safety by clicking here.
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Here are the graphics for the coming days.  Remember the orange area represents the slight risk (that is what the Storm Prediction Center calls it - not my favorite choice of wording) area for severe thunderstorms.  The orange area means that severe thunderstorms will be possible but will most likely not produce widespread severe weather.  The yellow area represents that areas where some thunderstorms will likely occur - but will remain, for the most part, below severe limits.  A severe storms is one that produces winds of at least 58 mph and quarter size hail or larger.  And/or tornadoes.

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Tuesday nights outlook graphic -
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Then here is the Wednesday outlook (below)  - parts of the area are in the risk zone for some severe thunderstorms.
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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here

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All other states- Click Here
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HEADLINE:   Thunderstorms developed over the region on Tuesday morning and afternoon.  Some of these storms produced hail and downed a few trees.  

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A few more thunderstorms will develop tonight and continue into Wednesday.  The cold front is still to our west.  This means that precipitation chances will continue.  A few of the thunderstorms could produce large hail and damaging winds - especially over the northern parts of southern IL and southeast Missouri.  A big concern is also frequent lightning - anyone with outdoor activities should be aware of thunderstorms that may move into the region.  Locally heavy downpours are possible.
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Significant to major flooding will continue on portions of the Mississippi River and Missouri River basins.  This will be a long summer of flooding for some areas. 

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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 


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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.

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Thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday - scattered.  Some of the storms will produce gusty winds and lightning.  Boaters should use caution if out on area lakes.
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More photos
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Significant to major flooding is likely to continue across the Missouri Valley in the coming weeks - latest river information - click here.
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To follow the flood information along the Missouri River - click here for a special Facebook page that has been made for those concerned.

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We are going to have to monitor the current pattern - these mesoscale thunderstorm complexes that keep moving through the region can produce heavy rainfall.  This will cause rivers to rise even further.  
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The Ohio River is starting to back up because of the high levels on the Mississippi River.  This is going to be a concern for quite some time to come.  Those living along rivers should monitor updated forecasts.
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To view the interactive river map below - click here.  The areas in purple and red are experiencing significant flooding issues.  
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Here is a map showing areas where flooding is occurring or will soon occur. 
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River Stages - Click Here  
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours.  Keep in mind that during the summer months heavy thunderstorms can produce excessive amounts of rain in a short period of time.  This map is to give you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Some areas during the summer months will pick up very little precipitation while neighboring areas receive quite a bit.  Thus is the nature of thunderstorms and the summer pattern.
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If you would like to view the 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.
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ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.

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Remember you can now view all of the temperature graphics (that you see below) - and more - by clicking here
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Below image - Low temperatures for Wednesday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Wednesday afternoon.
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Below image - Low temperatures for Thursday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Thursday afternoon
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Let's also take a look (the map below) at the expected heat index for tomorrow afternoon.  You can view this map for other days by clicking here.  Remember - the heat index is what the temperature feels like to your body when the temperature and humidity are combined.  Heat index calculator can be viewed by clicking here.
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Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here

Heat safety advice and information - click here

How much above or below normal will high temperatures be tomorrow?
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The map below shows you the departure from normal highs (normal highs are around 82-85 degrees).  This gives you a general idea of the type of weather pattern we are in.  Warmer than normal or cooler than normal?  
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For example if the normal high is 80 degrees and the actual high is 90 degrees then we would be 10 degrees above normal. You can find this map on the web-site, as well - click here.
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These are the record highs and lows for June 20th, 2011.  A total of 116 reports.  The purple dots are record low temperatures and the red dots are record high temperatures.  To view the most up to date maps - with details on each record high and low - click here.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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Tropical development is not anticipated at this time.

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You can view satellite images of the tropics by clicking here  - we have a variety of satellite images available on the Weather Observatory web-site.

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Latest National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook - click here.
 
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You can see from the maps below that a large chunk of real estate to our south and west is experiencing drought conditions. You can view these maps by clicking here, as well.

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You can see the map below showing the soil moisture anomalies.  Dry to our south - wet to our north.  Some of our counties have received quite a bit of rain over the last week.  Making ground conditions - moist.
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You can learn more about the current drought by visiting this Climate Prediction Center website - click here.
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You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast maps for temperature and precipitation!  Maps are available by clicking here.

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Not the best news for the summer forecast - the latest graphics are showing above normal temperatures.  We will have to see how this pattern evolves.  There is some disagreement among the models.  However, if true then we can expect some hot weather next week and the following week. 
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1.  We should dry out by Thursday - a chance for a few remaining showers/storms on Wednesday night and Thursday.  But I believe most of the precip chances will come to an end during that time period.

2.  More seasonable temperatures will arrive on Wednesday through Friday - even some below normal temperatures.  



3.  Thunderstorm chances increase again on Thursday night and Friday - this will continue into Saturday and Sunday.  I suspect Friday night and Saturday could be quite wet.  Timing and placement of the thunderstorm complexes is a bit difficult this far out.  Will monitor and update accordingly.



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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here

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All other states- Click Here

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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php


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You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends. 
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Don't forget that our friends at the Paducah, Kentucky US National Weather Service Office now has a Facebook page, as well!  Click here and then hit LIKE at the top of their page.
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management now has a Facebook page?  This is a great way to stay in touch with local officials during and before a natural disaster.  Here is their page - hit LIKE at the top of the button.

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You can also find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
"We don't control the weather - we just predict it"
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McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

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I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of widespread severe weather episodes.  Basically this is a "heads up" email.  If you would like to subscribe then click here.   
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