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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here Remainder of tonight - Saturday night: Partly cloudy skies. A slight chance for a thunderstorm this evening then thunderstorms likely after midnight. Some storms may produce locally heavy rain. A few severe storms will also be possible. Above normal temperatures. Lows: in the 68-72 degree range | Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.
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Sunday: A good chance for thunderstorms during the morning hours - before 11 am. Then a chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Some storms may produce heavy rain and isolated severe weather. Normal to above normal temperatures.
Highs: in the 86-88 degree range. | Heat index: Values not applicable | Wind: Southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 85 degrees. .
Sunday night: Partly cloudy. A slight chance for a thunderstorm. Above normal temperatures.Lows: around 70 degrees | Wind: South winds at 10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.
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Monday: Partly sunny. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 88-94 degrees | Heat index: around 92-96 degrees | Wind: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 85 degrees.-
Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Above normal temperatures.
Lows: around 74 degrees | Wind: Southerly winds. Wind speeds at 10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.-
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a chance for a thunderstorm. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 91 degrees | Heat index: In the 90-95 degree range | Wind: Southerly winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph - Normal highs for this time of the year are around 85 degrees. -
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 48 hours...
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
Saturday night: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time. Isolated pockets of storms could produce large hail and high winds. We will be watching Missouri where a line of storms is forecast to form later this evening and during the overnight period. If this line does form then it will move east into our region.
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Sunday: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time. Isolated pockets of storms could produce large hail and high winds. We will need to monitor Sunday's event - morning cloud cover and ongoing precipitation could lessen the severe threat. Again - this will depend on what happens on Saturday night.
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Sunday night: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time. Thunderstorms will be possible - a few of the storms could produce hail and high winds
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Monday night - Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.
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Three impressive charts from Saturday evening - 6 pm. A tremendous amount of CAPE in Missouri - remember CAPE is potential energy in the atmosphere. Some 4000-5000 areas showing up. Also a strong theta axis across the region - and finally the supercell potential - all three of these map indicate a good chance for thunderstorms developing later this evening (Saturday night)
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Click image for real size view
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Lightning Safety week has arrived! You can learn more about lightning safety by clicking here.
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Here are the graphics for the coming days. Remember the orange area represents the slight risk (that is what the Storm Prediction Center calls it - not my favorite choice of wording) area for severe thunderstorms. The orange area means that severe thunderstorms will be possible but will most likely not produce widespread severe weather. The yellow area represents that areas where some thunderstorms will likely occur - but will remain, for the most part, below severe limits. A severe storms is one that produces winds of at least 58 mph and quarter size hail or larger. And/or tornadoes.
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Saturday night's severe weather outlook graphic - another line of storms is forecast to form over Missouri this evening. If this does occur then it could produce a few reports of severe weather - main concern is hail and high winds.
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Then here is the Sunday outlook (below) - the SPC has outlined our region for additional thunderstorm chances - some of which may be severe.
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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HEADLINE: Saturday morning brought a few severe thunderstorms to the region. I recorded my fifteenth hail event for 2011. We had hail up to the size of quarters early on Saturday morning followed by a second cell that produced pea to dime size hail. Lot of hail this year.
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Rainfall was heavy - some areas picked up 1-3" of rain. Here at the Weather Observatory we recorded 2.44" of rain. There was a lot of water standing in the fields and even some water over roadways. Some flash flooding was also reported in Paducah, Kentucky..
Here is an image grab from the Paducah, Kentucky NWS Radar - click on the image for a better view. You can see the stripes of heavy rain that moved through our area on Saturday morning..
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Another mesoscale complex of thunderstorms is forecast to develop later this evening over Missouri and Kansas. This line of storms is forecast to move southeast and east into our region. If this line does indeed form then there will be additional chances for severe weather. The main concern will be high winds and hail. Don't forget that all of these storms can produce locally heavy rain and lightning. .
If you do have outdoor plans this weekend - don't cancel them. Just be aware that we may have some thunderstorms from time to time. Check our radars and take your NOAA Weather Radio with you - just in case a few storms decide to become severe. .
Significant to major flooding will continue on portions of the Mississippi River and Missouri River basins. This will be a long summer of flooding for some areas. We are also concerned that the Ohio River will continue to back up. This could cause flooding over parts of southern IL and western KY. Stay tuned..
You can listen to LIVE reports from Minot, North Dakota (serious river flooding in that city) - click here.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here .
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A few more thunderstorms are expected later tonight and into Sunday. There should be one main line of storms form in Missouri tonight and then move into southern Illinois and western Kentucky late tonight and into the Sunday morning hours. Additional storms may form on Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening - in the heat of the day. Any thunderstorms that form could produce lightning, heavy rain, hail, and high winds. .
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Significant to major flooding is likely to continue across the Missouri Valley in the coming weeks - latest river information - click here..
To follow the flood information along the Missouri River - click here for a special Facebook page that has been made for those concerned.
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We are going to have to monitor the current pattern - these mesoscale thunderstorm complexes that keep moving through the region can produce heavy rainfall. This will cause rivers to rise even further. .
The Ohio River is starting to back up because of the high water levels on the Mississippi River. This is going to be a concern for quite some time to come. Those living along rivers should monitor updated forecasts.
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To view the interactive river map below - click here. The areas in purple and red are experiencing significant flooding issues.
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River Stages - Click Here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. Keep in mind that during the summer months heavy thunderstorms can produce excessive amounts of rain in a short period of time. This map is to give you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Some areas during the summer months will pick up very little precipitation while neighboring areas receive quite a bit. Thus is the nature of thunderstorms and the summer pattern.
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If you would like to view the 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.
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I also now have thunderstorm probabilities available on the web-site - you can click hour by hour and see where the best chances for thunderstorms will exist. Here is the link - you can also choose your own region by clicking on a state.
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This first map shows you the 12 am through 2 am Sunday thunderstorm probabilities.
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This second map shows you the 4 am through 6 am time frame.
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You can see that it appears thunderstorm chances will be fairly high tomorrow morning. You can view all of these maps and other hours by clicking here.
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ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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Remember you can now view all of the temperature graphics (that you see below) - and more - by clicking here
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Below image - Low temperatures for Sunday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Sunday afternoon.
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Below image - Low temperatures for Monday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Monday afternoon
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Let's also take a look (the map below) at the expected heat index for tomorrow afternoon. You can view this map for other days by clicking here. Remember - the heat index is what the temperature feels like to your body when the temperature and humidity are combined. Heat index calculator can be viewed by clicking here.
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Keep in mind that the heat index over the last week has been a non-issue. Also these heat index values might be tempered somewhat because of morning thunderstorms and cloud cover. I think that we will have to become a bit more concerned about the heat index later next week as the high pressure ridge attempts to build back into our local area.
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Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here
Heat safety advice and information - click here
How much above or below normal will high temperatures be tomorrow?
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The map below shows you the departure from normal highs (normal highs are around 82-85 degrees). This gives you a general idea of the type of weather pattern we are in. Warmer than normal or cooler than normal?
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For example if the normal high is 80 degrees and the actual high is 90 degrees then we would be 10 degrees above normal. You can find this map on the web-site, as well - click here.
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You can see we are bordering on the warmer than normal vs the colder than normal. Remember that if you want storms then that is where you want to be - in the battle ground.
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These are the record highs and lows for June 24th, 2011. A total of 41 reports. The purple dots are record low temperatures and the red dots are record high temperatures. To view the most up to date maps - with details on each record high and low - click here.
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Not nearly as bad as recent weeks when we were seeing dozens and dozens of record highs each and every day. The last few days have brought only a handful of records.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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You can view satellite images of the tropics by clicking here - we have a variety of satellite images available on the Weather Observatory web-site. .
Here is a satellite view from our web-site showing the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic - some disturbed weather in the Gulf and then near Mexico - south of Cuba..
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Latest National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook - click here.--------------------
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You can see from the maps over the last weeks worth of posting that a large chunk of real estate to our south and west is experiencing drought conditions. You can view these maps by clicking here, as well.
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You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast maps for temperature and precipitation! Maps are available by clicking here.
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Latest six to ten day outlook and eight to fourteen outlook - both continue to show above normal temperatures. Not going exactly the way I thought the first week of July would unfold. We will watch and see if we have a pattern shift. It is trying - these thunderstorm complexes that keep coming out of the NW flow is exactly what was forecast for the end of June. But - I would like to see the high pressure ridge shift south and west a bit more in order to see the summer forecast verify completely. These well above normal temperature probabilities go against that idea. Time will tell..
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1. Long range continues to show above normal temperatures. Watching the big heat ridge to see if it does indeed build back into our region later this week. If it does then hot and humid weather will prevail until the next front pushes through.
2. As far as the severe weather risk the next few days - main concern will be lightning - if you are camping or if you have outdoor events this weekend then just be aware of possible thunderstorms. If there were to be severe weather then high winds would probably be the biggest threat along with some hail. Tornado risk appears fairly low.
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-sitehttp://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends.
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Don't forget that our friends at the Paducah, Kentucky US National Weather Service Office now has a Facebook page, as well! Click here and then hit LIKE at the top of their page.
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management now has a Facebook page? This is a great way to stay in touch with local officials during and before a natural disaster. Here is their page - hit LIKE at the top of the button.
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You can also find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson---
"We don't control the weather - we just predict it"
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McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of widespread severe weather episodes. Basically this is a "heads up" email. If you would like to subscribe then click here.
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