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Changing the format of the page a bit - I am going to put the most important items at the very top of the blog post - then if you would like to know more about the weather and check out some weather charts/maps (the MEAT) then you can find that below the severe weather forecast.
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This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer ---
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here .
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Remainder of tonight - Sunday night: A few more storms will be possible overnight. We don't believe the event will be as large or as widespread as the previous few nights - however, this will need to be closely monitored because there is quite a bit of instability. Will leave it as chance wording for now and mainly early - late night storms would more likely be over the northern and northeastern part of the region. Above normal temperatures. Lows: in the 72-75 degree range | Wind: Southerly 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.
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Monday: Partly cloudy skies. Warm and humid. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: in the 88-95 degree range. | Heat index: Values in the 92-98 degree range | Wind: Southerly/southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 85 degrees. .
Monday night: Partly cloudy. Warm. Much above normal temperatures.Lows: around 70-75 degrees | Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.
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Tuesday: Partly sunny and warm. Windy. Thunderstorms will be possible late in the day. A few storms may be severe. More likely late in the day. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 88-94 degrees | Heat index: Values in the 93-98 degree range | Wind: South/southwesterly winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 85 degrees.---
Tuesday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. A few storms may be severe. Warm. Above normal temperatures.
Lows: around 74 degrees | Wind: Southerly winds. Wind speeds at 10-15 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.---
Wednesday: A good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Not as warm.
Highs: around 83 degrees | Heat index: Values in the 85-89 degree range | Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph over most of the area - gusts to 20-25 mph possible - winds turning more from the west late in the day. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 85 degrees. .
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No major changes in the forecast for this period. Best chances for widespread storms tonight would be from St Louis down to near Evansville - perhaps a county south and west of that line and then north and east of that line. Although there will be at least a chance for a storm anywhere in the region - lot of unstable air. .
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 48 hours...
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
Sunday night: A few thunderstorms possible. Isolated severe risk - mainly frequent lightning, hail, and damaging winds - with any storms that become severe.
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.
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Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.
Sunday night: A few thunderstorms possible. Isolated severe risk - mainly frequent lightning, hail, and damaging winds - with any storms that become severe.
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.
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Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.
Tuesday: Thunderstorms are possible - late in the day. A few of the storms may be severe.
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Lightning Safety week has arrived! You can learn more about lightning safety by clicking here.
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Here are the graphics for the coming days. Remember the orange area represents the slight risk (that is what the Storm Prediction Center calls it - not my favorite choice of wording) area for severe thunderstorms. The orange area means that severe thunderstorms will be possible but will most likely not produce widespread severe weather. The yellow area represents that areas where some thunderstorms will likely occur - but will remain, for the most part, below severe limits. A severe storms is one that produces winds of at least 58 mph and quarter size hail or larger. And/or tornadoes.
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Sunday nights outlook graphic - the red zone is the moderate risk (higher probabilities for severe weather). You can see much of our region is in the slight risk. I don't believe we see another large complex early in the morning hours like the last two nights. Will monitor.
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Then here is the Monday outlook
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And finally the Tuesday outlook .
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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HEADLINE: Thunderstorms moved through the region early on Father's Day. The storms produced some damage in southern Illinois - trees were uprooted and several campers were destroyed - most of this damage was from the Mt Vernon down to the Carbondale corridor. Far southern Illinois had less in the way of wind but did receive some heavy rain. Rainfall totals in the 1-2" range were common in the area. Frequent lightning also was reported with the squall line.
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Here is a map of the storm reports - the orange dots are high wind or wind damage reports..
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A few more storms will be possible this evening. We do not currently expect another large squall line late at night - we are thinking that will not happen in our local counties. However, we will closely monitor as the atmosphere is quite unstable. .
Here is a photograph taken by Regina Renfrow - Oscar, KY - Ballard County - this happened on Sunday afternoon around 405 pm. Click image for real view size..
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This is what the supercell looked like from my window - quite the storm! Click image for real size view..
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Monday will be dry as the warm front lives north of the region - leaving us capped. Capped means that storms can not form a good updraft - without the strong updraft then the storm can't build. A cap is basically a warm layer of air aloft. .
A powerful late spring storm system will develop on Monday and Tuesday to our west. This area of low pressure will push into Kansas and Nebraska/Iowa on Monday night and Tuesday. Strong to severe thunderstorms will break out over a large area of the central United States on Monday and Tuesday. Our region (see the risk maps above) will be in the greatest threat zone on Tuesday and Tuesday night. That axis will shift east on Wednesday..
At this time it appears the main concern with the Tuesday event will be frequent lightning, heavy rain, and damaging thunderstorm winds. There will be quite a bit of instability - so hail can't be ruled out. The tornado risk appears low. Again - will monitor for updates on the next 24 hour and adjust wording if need be.
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Significant to major flooding will continue on portions of the Mississippi River and Missouri River basins. This will be a long summer of flooding for some areas. .
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here .
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A few storms possible this evening - also again on Tuesday into Wednesday. Gusty winds on Monday afternoon and again on Tuesday and Wednesday..
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Significant to major flooding is likely to continue across the Missouri Valley in the coming weeks - latest river information - click here.
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To follow the flood information along the Missouri River - click here for a special Facebook page that has been made for those concerned.
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To follow the flood information along the Missouri River - click here for a special Facebook page that has been made for those concerned.
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To view the interactive river map below - click here. The areas in purple and red are experiencing significant flooding issues. .
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River Stages - Click Here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. Keep in mind that during the summer months heavy thunderstorms can produce excessive amounts of rain in a short period of time. This map is to give you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Some areas during the summer months will pick up very little precipitation while neighboring areas receive quite a bit. Thus is the nature of thunderstorms and the summer pattern.
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If you would like to view the 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.
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ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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Remember you can now view all of the temperature graphics (that you see below) - and more - by clicking here
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Below image - Low temperatures for Monday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Monday afternoon.
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Below image - Low temperatures for Tuesday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Tuesday afternoon
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Let's also take a look (the map below) at the expected heat index for tomorrow afternoon. You can view this map for other days by clicking here. Remember - the heat index is what the temperature feels like to your body when the temperature and humidity are combined. Heat index calculator can be viewed by clicking here.
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Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here
Heat safety advice and information - click here
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How much above or below normal will high temperatures be tomorrow?
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The map below shows you the departure from normal highs (normal highs are around 82-85 degrees). This gives you a general idea of the type of weather pattern we are in. Warmer than normal or cooler than normal?
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For example if the normal high is 80 degrees and the actual high is 90 degrees then we would be 10 degrees above normal. You can find this map on the web-site, as well - click here.
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Let's take a look at the MONTH to date temperature departures. This shows you how much above or below normal temperatures have been since June 1st. Our region has been ABOVE normal!
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These are the record highs and lows for June 18th, 2011. A total of 129 reports. The purple dots are record low temperatures and the red dots are record high temperatures. To view the most up to date maps - with details on each record high and low - click here.
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And for the past week - all of the high and low temperatures. 881 total records. Quite a few record highs! You can view this map yourself by clicking here. You can view each record and the exact information on that link.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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You can view satellite images of the tropics by clicking here - we have a variety of satellite images available on the Weather Observatory web-site. .
Latest National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook - click here.--------------------
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You can see from the maps below that a large chunk of real estate to our south and west is experiencing drought conditions. You can view these maps by clicking here, as well.
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Portions of our region are starting to experience dry ground conditions. But the last few days have brought some relief - most areas have picked up 1-3" of rain.
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The map below is the soil capacity chart - basically you can see areas that are dry or wet. Our region is in the 50-70%. We could still use some rain in parts of the region. But - the last few days have brought at least some relief..
You can learn more about the current drought by visiting this Climate Prediction Center website - click here.
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Let's take a look at how much it has rained the last seven days. Remember I told you in the summer outlook that these thunderstorm complexes would form in June through August and move southeast into the region from the north and northwest. These systems over the last week have brought substantial rainfall totals.
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You will need to click each map to see the real view size - better resolution view..
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You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast maps for temperature and precipitation! Maps are available by clicking here.
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1. Next big weather system arrive on Tuesday and Wednesday - this will bring showers and thunderstorms. A few strong or severe storms will likely occur ahead of the cold front on Tuesday or Tuesday night. A bit more uncertain about Wednesday - believe the stronger storms will shift to the east of southern Illinois and west Kentucky.
2. More seasonable temperatures will arrive on Wednesday through Friday - even some below normal temperatures.
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3. We will monitor the weekend for additional mesoscale thunderstorm complex systems moving in from the northwest. There are some placement issues of the risk area. So - for now we will mention the potential and update through the week. .
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-sitehttp://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends.
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Don't forget that our friends at the Paducah, Kentucky US National Weather Service Office now has a Facebook page, as well! Click here and then hit LIKE at the top of their page.
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management now has a Facebook page? This is a great way to stay in touch with local officials during and before a natural disaster. Here is their page - hit LIKE at the top of the button.
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You can also find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson---
"We don't control the weather - we just predict it"
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McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of widespread severe weather episodes. Basically this is a "heads up" email. If you would like to subscribe then click here.
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This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service! .
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