3 PM Update
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Storms have calmed down for the time being. A few scattered storms are possible this afternoon and early evening. Another line of storms will form in MO later this evening and is expected to move into most of our counties after 9 or 10 pm. Will monitor..
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Saturday, June 25, 2011 .
Chances for severe storms are increasing this afternoon and tonight. There is some uncertainty as to just how unstable the atmosphere will become. The main concern will be high winds and large hail. Isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out. .
.Saturday, June 25, 2011
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here Remainder of tonight - Friday night: Partly cloudy skies. Scattered showers and thunderstorms late tonight. Normal to below normal temperatures. Lows: in the 62-65 degree range | Wind: Westerly 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.
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Saturday: A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Below normal temperatures.
Highs: in the 83-85 degree range. | Heat index: Values not applicable | Wind: Southeasterly winds at 10-15 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 85 degrees. .
Saturday night: Partly cloudy. A chance for thunderstorms. Above normal temperatures.Lows: around 70 degrees | Wind: South winds at 10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.
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Sunday: A good chance for thunderstorms. Normal to above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 88 degrees | Heat index: Values not applicable | Wind: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 85 degrees.-
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Above normal temperatures.
Lows: around 69-72 degrees | Wind: Southerly winds. Wind speeds at 10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.-
Monday: Mostly sunny. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 92 degrees | Heat index: n/a | Wind: Southerly winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph - Normal highs for this time of the year are around 85 degrees. -
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 48 hours...
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.
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Saturday: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time. Isolated pockets of storms could produce large hail and high winds. .
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Saturday night: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time. Thunderstorms will be possible - a few of the storms could produce hail and high winds
.Sunday: Thunderstorms will be possible. Some of the storms could produce hail and damaging winds.
Sunday night - Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.
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Lightning Safety week has arrived! You can learn more about lightning safety by clicking here.
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Here are the graphics for the coming days. Remember the orange area represents the slight risk (that is what the Storm Prediction Center calls it - not my favorite choice of wording) area for severe thunderstorms. The orange area means that severe thunderstorms will be possible but will most likely not produce widespread severe weather. The yellow area represents that areas where some thunderstorms will likely occur - but will remain, for the most part, below severe limits. A severe storms is one that produces winds of at least 58 mph and quarter size hail or larger. And/or tornadoes.
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Friday nights severe weather outlook graphic - you can see the warm front returning. The SPC has marked off an area where severe storms might form along and ahead of the warm front. The long orange area - that is where they have outlined a risk for a few severe storms.
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Then here is the Saturday outlook (below) - you can see the SPC has outlined an area to our north and west - this is in association with a complex of thunderstorms that is forecast to develop and move southeast. For the time being we are not included in the risk zone. I will monitor for any updates. I think our main concern on Saturday will be lightning and some rain.
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Sunday's severe weather outlook map
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The SPC has outlined our region for a few severe thunderstorms. They will update this map several times between now and Sunday - so check back for updates.
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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HEADLINE: Friday was not too bad over our region. A complex of thunderstorms passed through southeast Missouri and moved into Arkansas. This kept the skies a bit more on the cloudy side vs the sunny side.
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A frontal system will find itself near our region over the next couple of days. Along and ahead of this front there will be periods of showers and thunderstorms - some which may produce heavy downpours and lightning. .
The severe weather risk is low this weekend - however, there could be a few storms produce high winds and hail. The most likely time period for this would be on Saturday and then again on Sunday. At this time the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a risk area that includes many of our counties for both Saturday and Sunday. This will undoubtedly be updated a few times over the next 2 days. Check back for updates - or check the Facebook page. .
If you do have outdoor plans this weekend - don't cancel them. Just be aware that we may have some thunderstorms from time to time. Check our radars and take your NOAA Weather Radio with you - just in case a few storms decide to become severe. .
Check out the heat this afternoon (Friday afternoon) over Texas and portions of the southwest United States. HOT!.
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The Louisville National Weather Service Office did a great job on the tornado event Wednesday night. Several tornadoes were reported in the Louisville area. If you would like more information on the Louisville tornadoes - click here .
Here is a radar image from the NWS Office - you can clearly see the tornadic supercell on this image. Click image for real view size. .
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Here is a photo from Church Hill Downs - image from the NWS - again click image for better resolution view.
Here is a photo from Church Hill Downs - image from the NWS - again click image for better resolution view.
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Significant to major flooding will continue on portions of the Mississippi River and Missouri River basins. This will be a long summer of flooding for some areas. We are also concerned that the Ohio River will continue to back up. This could cause flooding over parts of southern IL and western KY. Stay tuned..
You can listen to LIVE reports from Minot, North Dakota (serious river flooding in that city) - click here.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here .
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Thunderstorm chances increase on Friday night into Sunday (very small chance for a few storms on Friday afternoon). I wouldn't cancel my outdoor plans - but I would be aware that a few thunderstorms could impact camping areas. Lightning is always a concern when thunderstorms are around. Gusty winds can not be ruled out with any storms that do form. Just be aware of changing weather conditions and act accordingly. Common sense, as always..
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Significant to major flooding is likely to continue across the Missouri Valley in the coming weeks - latest river information - click here..
To follow the flood information along the Missouri River - click here for a special Facebook page that has been made for those concerned.
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We are going to have to monitor the current pattern - these mesoscale thunderstorm complexes that keep moving through the region can produce heavy rainfall. This will cause rivers to rise even further. .
The Ohio River is starting to back up because of the high levels on the Mississippi River. This is going to be a concern for quite some time to come. Those living along rivers should monitor updated forecasts.
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To view the interactive river map below - click here. The areas in purple and red are experiencing significant flooding issues.
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River Stages - Click Here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. Keep in mind that during the summer months heavy thunderstorms can produce excessive amounts of rain in a short period of time. This map is to give you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Some areas during the summer months will pick up very little precipitation while neighboring areas receive quite a bit. Thus is the nature of thunderstorms and the summer pattern.
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ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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Remember you can now view all of the temperature graphics (that you see below) - and more - by clicking here
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Below image - Low temperatures for Saturday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Saturday afternoon.
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Below image - Low temperatures for Sunday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Sunday afternoon
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Let's also take a look (the map below) at the expected heat index for tomorrow afternoon. You can view this map for other days by clicking here. Remember - the heat index is what the temperature feels like to your body when the temperature and humidity are combined. Heat index calculator can be viewed by clicking here.
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Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here
Heat safety advice and information - click here
How much above or below normal will high temperatures be tomorrow?
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The map below shows you the departure from normal highs (normal highs are around 82-85 degrees). This gives you a general idea of the type of weather pattern we are in. Warmer than normal or cooler than normal?
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For example if the normal high is 80 degrees and the actual high is 90 degrees then we would be 10 degrees above normal. You can find this map on the web-site, as well - click here.
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These are the record highs and lows for June 23rd, 2011. A total of 34 reports. The purple dots are record low temperatures and the red dots are record high temperatures. To view the most up to date maps - with details on each record high and low - click here.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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You can view satellite images of the tropics by clicking here - we have a variety of satellite images available on the Weather Observatory web-site. .
Here is a satellite view from our web-site showing the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic - some disturbed weather in the Gulf and then near Mexico - south of Cuba..
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Latest National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook - click here.--------------------
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You can see from the maps below that a large chunk of real estate to our south and west is experiencing drought conditions. You can view these maps by clicking here, as well.
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Crop moisture index for today - you can see the drought continues to our south and west. Our recent rainfall helped relieve some of the parched ground conditions in our area. More rain this weekend will add to our moisture totals..
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You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast maps for temperature and precipitation! Maps are available by clicking here.
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1. Unsettled pattern for the weekend.
2. Severe weather risks appear low over the next few days. Main concern will be lightning - if you are camping or if you have outdoor events this weekend then just be aware of possible thunderstorms. If there were to be severe weather then high winds would probably be the biggest threat.
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3. The long range appears to be another chance for storms around Tuesday or Wednesday and then the high pressure ridge may build back in - with warmer temperatures towards the end of next week. .
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-sitehttp://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends.
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Don't forget that our friends at the Paducah, Kentucky US National Weather Service Office now has a Facebook page, as well! Click here and then hit LIKE at the top of their page.
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management now has a Facebook page? This is a great way to stay in touch with local officials during and before a natural disaster. Here is their page - hit LIKE at the top of the button.
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You can also find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson---
"We don't control the weather - we just predict it"
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McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of widespread severe weather episodes. Basically this is a "heads up" email. If you would like to subscribe then click here.
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