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Changing the format of the page a bit - I am going to put the most important items at the very top of the blog post - then if you would like to know more about the weather and check out some weather charts/maps (the MEAT) then you can find that below the severe weather forecast.
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This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer ---
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky - for your local town - click here .
Bottom line for the weekend - if you have outdoor plans don't cancel them but be aware of changing weather conditions in the event a thunderstorm or two moves through your local area. If you are camping then take a weather radio or just use common sense, as always. .
Remainder of tonight - Saturday night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a period or two of thunderstorms across the area. Mainly late tonight into Sunday morning. A few of the storms could produce reports of severe weather. The main concern will be high winds and lightning. Above normal temperatures. Lows: in the 72-75 degree range | Wind: Southerly 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.
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Sunday: Mostly cloudy early in the morning with thunderstorms likely - very early (possibly moving out before 8 am) - we will need to monitor the speed and track of the line of storms late tonight (Saturday night). Some of the storms could produce frequent lightning and gusty winds. Then becoming partly sunny during the late morning and afternoon hours after the complex of storms passes to our east. A chance for an some additional thunderstorms. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: in the 84-88 degree range. | Heat index: Values in the 90-94 degree range | Wind: Southerly/southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph at times. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 84 degrees. .
Sunday night: Partly cloudy. A slight chance for thunderstorms. If a storm does form then it could be severe in isolated areas. Warm. Much above normal temperatures.Lows: around 70-75 degrees | Wind: Southerly/southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph - gusts to 15 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.
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Monday: Partly sunny and warm. Windy at times. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 90-94 degrees | Heat index: Values in the 93-98 degree range | Wind: South/southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.---
Monday night: Partly cloudy. Much above normal temperatures.
Lows: around 74 degrees | Wind: Southerly winds. Wind speeds at 5-15 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.---
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Warm and humid. A small chance for a thunderstorm - most likely late in the day. Better chances Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Highs: around 92 degrees | Heat index: Values in the 94-97 degree range | Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph over most of the area - gusts to 20-25 mph possible. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 84 degrees. .
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Tweaked the line morning forecast for Sunday - and afternoon. Adjusted wind speed forecasts just a tad - lowered them 5 mph or so. Still some gusty winds possible - but likely below advisory level. As always, use caution on lakes. .
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 48 hours...
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
Saturday night: A few thunderstorms. Some severe storms are not out of the question - mainly hail and gusty winds. If a bow echo forms then the risk for strong/high winds will increase. Storms will be moving out of Missouri and will move east/southeast into our region.
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Sunday: A few morning thunderstorms will be possible. Isolated severe risk - most likely from high winds if a bow forms in the overnight complex of storms. Will monitor and update the Facebook weather page.
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.
Saturday night: A few thunderstorms. Some severe storms are not out of the question - mainly hail and gusty winds. If a bow echo forms then the risk for strong/high winds will increase. Storms will be moving out of Missouri and will move east/southeast into our region.
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Sunday: A few morning thunderstorms will be possible. Isolated severe risk - most likely from high winds if a bow forms in the overnight complex of storms. Will monitor and update the Facebook weather page.
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Lightning Safety week has arrived! You can learn more about lightning safety by clicking here.
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Here are the graphics for Saturday and Sunday. Remember the orange area represents the risk area for severe thunderstorms. The orange area means that severe thunderstorms will likely occur but will most likely not be widespread in nature. The yellow area represents that areas where some thunderstorms will likely occur - but will remain, for the most part, remain below severe limits. A severe storms is one that produces winds of at least 58 mph and quarter size hail or larger. And/or tornadoes.
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Saturday nights outlook graphic
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The big concern from the Storm Prediction Center is the high wind risk - here is a graphic that shows you the risk zones for damaging winds. If the squall line forms tonight and holds together then it could produce high winds along its path.
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Then here is the Sunday outlook
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And finally the Monday outlook .
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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HEADLINE: Once again thunderstorms moved through the region on Saturday morning. Two complexes - one from Illinois and Indiana moved south through the region and a second line formed in Missouri and swept east and then southeast into the region.
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There were several reports of hail and high winds. I recorded pea to dime size hail here at my place. Other areas reported 50-60 mph winds. Some damage to a roof in Hopkinsville, Kentucky. Northwest Tennessee had winds of greater than 60 mph with some tree damage. Rainfall totals ranged from 0.25-2.50" or more. Pockets of heavy rain produced flooding over some roadways and fields. .
Another complex of thunderstorms will form in Missouri this evening and tonight. This complex will move east/southeast into our region during the overnight and morning hours. Once again there will be a risk for some of the storms to produce high winds and hail. An isolated tornado is possible - especially in Missouri. .
Once this complex moves out of the region then we believe the remainder of Sunday will be dry outside of a few scattered thunderstorms. There are different opinions on the Sunday afternoon into Sunday night time frame. For now we will just go with a few scattered storms - other than the morning complex (which would be more widespread in nature). .
Extremely difficult forecast over the next 72 hours. These weak systems that push through the region can trigger heavy thunderstorms - but timing them and placement is nearly impossible to forecast. I can forecast that conditions favor the development of storms and that some of our counties will likely experience heavy downpours with storms that do develop. Pinning it down for each county, though, just isn't possible. .
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Also boaters note that it will be windy this weekend with some gusts on lakes in excess of 20 mph! .
Here is an image grab from my radar this morning - each one of these colored dots represents a lightning strike - I didn't capture them all because the data only goes back for an hour or two - but this gives you an idea of just how bad the lightning was! Click image for real size view.
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Also you can see this satellite image from Saturday morning - showing the complex of thunderstorms moving through the region. Quite impressive. The numbers are surface air temperatures. Click image for real size view..
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And here is a view of the complex as it passed over Paducah - click image for real size view.
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We will watch another system push towards the area towards the middle next week. This system should bring a squall line through the region on Tuesday night or Wednesday - still some timing issues with the storm. It could be as late as Wednesday/Wednesday afternoon. Some severe weather can't be ruled out with the mid-week storm system..
Here is what the GFS model is showing for Tuesday night - the pink/purple/blue area would be rain/thunderstorms. This model shows the cold front approaching from the west with numerous showers and storms.
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This image is from www.wright-weather.com.
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Significant to major flooding will continue on portions of the Mississippi River and Missouri River basins. This will be a long summer of flooding for some areas. .
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here .
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If you are camping this weekend there may be some gusty winds on area lakes. Use caution, as always. Some white caps are possible on lakes. .
Another round of thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday night late and Sunday. Lightning could be an issue if storms do move over campgrounds. As always, use common sense when out and about. .
Warm temperatures Sunday - but not as hot as we earlier thought because of cloud cover and the front stalling out a bit further south. .
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Significant to major flooding is likely to continue across the Missouri Valley in the coming weeks - latest river information - click here.
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To follow the flood information along the Missouri River - click here for a special Facebook page that has been made for those concerned.
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To follow the flood information along the Missouri River - click here for a special Facebook page that has been made for those concerned.
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To view the interactive river map below - click here. The areas in purple and red are experiencing significant flooding issues. .
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River Stages - Click Here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. Keep in mind that during the summer months heavy thunderstorms can produce excessive amounts of rain in a short period of time. This map is to give you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Some areas during the summer months will pick up very little precipitation while neighboring areas receive quite a bit. Thus is the nature of thunderstorms and the summer pattern.
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If you would like to view the 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.
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I suspect this could be underdone in some of our counties - these heavy storms can drop quite a bit of rain in a short amount of time. So - keep that in mind.
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Here is the future-cast radar from one of our models that we use to predict thunderstorms - this is around 10 pm - 1 am tonight - you can see it is forecasting more thunderstorms to fire up in Missouri and move east into our region. Click the image for a better view.
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Here is the future-cast radar from one of our models that we use to predict thunderstorms - this is around 10 pm - 1 am tonight - you can see it is forecasting more thunderstorms to fire up in Missouri and move east into our region. Click the image for a better view.
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ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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Remember you can now view all of the temperature graphics (that you see below) - and more - by clicking here
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Below image - Low temperatures for Sunday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Sunday afternoon - THESE TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. If we end up with more storms than expected then lower temps a few degrees.
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Below image - Low temperatures for Monday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Monday afternoon
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Let's also take a look (the map below) at the expected heat index for tomorrow afternoon. You can view this map for other days by clicking here. Remember - the heat index is what the temperature feels like to your body when the temperature and humidity are combined. Heat index calculator can be viewed by clicking here.
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THESE NUMBERS MAY BE TOO HIGH IF WE END UP WITH MORE CLOUD COVER THAN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY MORNING. .
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Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here
Heat safety advice and information - click here
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How much above or below normal will high temperatures be tomorrow? You can see we are moving back into the above normal temperatures category. Some of this will depend on how much cloud cover and precipitation is ongoing in the morning.
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The map below shows you the departure from normal highs (normal highs are around 82-85 degrees). This gives you a general idea of the type of weather pattern we are in. Warmer than normal or cooler than normal?
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For example if the normal high is 80 degrees and the actual high is 90 degrees then we would be 10 degrees above normal. You can find this map on the web-site, as well - click here.
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These are the record highs and lows for June 17th, 2011. A total of 145 reports. The purple dots are record low temperatures and the red dots are record high temperatures. To view the most up to date maps - with details on each record high and low - click here.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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You can view satellite images of the tropics by clicking here - we have a variety of satellite images available on the Weather Observatory web-site. .
Latest National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook - click here. --------------------
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You can see from the maps below that a large chunk of real estate to our south and west is experiencing drought conditions. You can view these maps by clicking here, as well.
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Portions of our region are starting to experience dry ground conditions. Most farmers realize this already. Those who have planted crops are in need of some rain. We continue to be a pattern that brings scattered chances of rain - some areas pick up quite a bit while neighbors pick up very little. Summer type pattern.
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You can learn more about the current drought by visiting this Climate Prediction Center website - click here.
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You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast maps for temperature and precipitation! Maps are available by clicking here.
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1. Warm this weekend into Monday - high temperatures on Sunday will be dependent on how much cloud cover there is in the morning. A complex or two of storms is forecast to move into and through the region overnight. This could spread clouds into the region that would last into Sunday morning - broken record from Saturday's forecast!
2. Some of the storms over the next 12-24 hours could produce severe weather - meaning winds greater than 58 mph and hail the size of quarters or larger. Frequent lightning is always a concern, as well.
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3. Another system will approach the region towards the middle of next week. This system could spark additional thunderstorm chances and also usher in cooler temperatures - at least more seasonable temperatures. It appears severe weather may once again become a threat next week. Stay tuned on that topic. We are nearing the end of June - the summer forecast is for the pattern change to arrive at the end of June into July with more frequent periods of normal to below normal temperatures. We will see how it goes. .
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-sitehttp://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends.
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Don't forget that our friends at the Paducah, Kentucky US National Weather Service Office now has a Facebook page, as well! Click here and then hit LIKE at the top of their page.
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management now has a Facebook page? This is a great way to stay in touch with local officials during and before a natural disaster. Here is their page - hit LIKE at the top of the button.
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You can also find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson---
"We don't control the weather - we just predict it"
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McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of widespread severe weather episodes. Basically this is a "heads up" email. If you would like to subscribe then click here.
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