June 21, 2011: Thunderstorms returning to the forecast

Tuesday, June 21, 2011 - Morning Update 

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Good morning

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Thunderstorms will redevelop today.  Some of the storms could produce isolated severe weather.  The main concern would be damaging winds and large hail.  I do expect some severe thunderstorm watches later today.  The current cloud cover is, however, helping to hold down instability.  Morning satellite does show some breaks in the clouds to our west.  So, we will monitor the situation.

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Additional showers and storms will continue into tonight and Wednesday.  We expect the cold front to push through on Wednesday evening and this should push the majority of the precipitation off to the east.

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I am watching a series of storm systems for the weekend - these could return us to the overnight thunderstorm complex events - similar to what we had last week.  A bit early to pinpoint the exact placement and timing of those events.

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If you have not heard the news - Minot, North Dakota is going to be flooded.  A flood greater than any flood in the cities history.  Much of the city will be destroyed.

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Here is a post from a forum I belong to - this tells you just how bad it is

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Click the box of text to bring up a better view
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Here is a map of how much of the town will flood - this may have to be expanded even further.  Click map for real size view.  Source
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Tuesday, June 21, 2011 
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Changing the format of the page a bit - I am going to put the most important items at the very top of the blog post - then if you would like to know more about the weather and check out some weather charts/maps (the MEAT) then you can find that below the severe weather forecast.

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This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox.  There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer

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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

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Remainder of tonight - Monday night:  Increasing clouds during the overnight hours.  A very small chance for thunderstorms.  Above normal temperatures.  Lows:  in the 70-74 degree range  | Wind: Southerly 5-10 mph.  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.
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Tuesday:  A mix of sun and clouds - a chance for thunderstorms.  Windy.  A few storms may produce severe weather reports - meaning winds greater than 58 mph and hail the size of quarters or larger.  Above normal temperatures.

Highs:  in the 88-95 degree range.  | Heat index:  Values in the 92-98 degree range | Wind: Southerly/southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph gusts to 30 mph.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 85 degrees.

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Tuesday night:  A good chance for thunderstorms.  A few storms could produce severe weather.  Much above normal temperatures.

Lows: around 67-71 degrees  |  Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.

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Wednesday:  Thunderstorms likely.  A few storms may be severe.  Above normal temperatures.

Highs:  around 84-88 degrees   | Heat index:  Values in the 90 degree range | Wind: South/southwesterly winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 85 degrees.

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Wednesday night:  A few showers remaining.  Normal to below normal temperatures.

Lows: around 63 degrees  |  Wind: Westerly winds.  Wind speeds at 10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.

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Thursday:  Partly cloudy.  Windy at times.  Near normal temperatures.

Highs:  around 85 degrees  | Heat index:  n/a | Wind: Westerly winds at 10-20 mph (higher gusts) over most of the area - Normal highs for this time of the year are around 85 degrees.

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Minor tweaks in wind speeds and temperatures.  No significant changes.

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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 48 hours...  

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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here

Monday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.
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Tuesday:  A good chance for thunderstorms.  A few of the storms may produce damaging winds and hail.  Frequent lightning and heavy rain, as well.
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Tuesday night:   A good chance for thunderstorms.  A few of the storms may produce damaging winds and hail.  Frequent lightning and heavy rain, as well.

Wednesday:  A good chance for thunderstorms.  A few of the storms may produce damaging winds and hail.  Frequent lightning and heavy rain, as well.  The greatest threat on Wednesday during the day and afternoon would be over the eastern half of the region - from Evansville south into Tennessee and then east.  More isolated chance west of that line.

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Lightning Safety week has arrived!  You can learn more about lightning safety by clicking here.

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Here are the graphics for the coming days.  Remember the orange area represents the slight risk (that is what the Storm Prediction Center calls it - not my favorite choice of wording) area for severe thunderstorms.  The orange area means that severe thunderstorms will be possible but will most likely not produce widespread severe weather.  The yellow area represents that areas where some thunderstorms will likely occur - but will remain, for the most part, below severe limits.  A severe storms is one that produces winds of at least 58 mph and quarter size hail or larger.  And/or tornadoes.

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Monday nights outlook graphic - the red zone is the moderate risk (higher probabilities for severe weather). 

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Then here is the Tuesday outlook - we are in the risk zone for some severe thunderstorms.

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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here

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All other states- Click Here

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HEADLINE:   An active weather pattern is developing for the next 1-2 weeks - possibly beyond.  This will mean frequent thunderstorm chances - the NW flow that I have been talking about since April has arrived - this is the cause of the storm complexes over the past week.  This looks to continue into next week.  We will have dry periods and dry days in this mix - but we will also have frequent chances for precipitation.  

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A rather significant storm system is pushing through Kansas and Nebraska this evening.  A cold front trails from the storm back into Texas.  Along and ahead of this storm there are numerous severe thunderstorms - some producing tornadoes and very large hail.

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Here is a weather map showing you the intense area of low pressure - at least for June this is intense.  Click image for real size view.
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You can also see the warm air pushing northward in advance of the strong area of low pressure.  Then see the cooler air behind?  Quite the storm. Keep in mind these temps are on Monday evening around 7 pm.

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Thankfully our region will not be in the "highest" risk for severe storms over the coming days - but I do believe we see a few severe storms - main concern will be hail and high winds.  Can't rule out an isolated tornado - but the chances appear low.

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Thunderstorm chances will increase once again on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Some of the storms could produce severe weather.  The most likely time frame for severe thunderstorms would be Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.  Then another chance on Wednesday - but the Wednesday threat would likely be over the eastern half of the region.  I will monitor and tweak the forecast if need be.

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You can see the storm system wrapping up on visible satellite this evening (Monday evening) - you can also view the satellite images for yourself by clicking here 

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You can see the thunderstorms forming along a line in Kansas - ahead of the cold front.  Those would be the bright white clouds.  The shadows you see to the right of the storms - that would be a shadow!  The sun is setting in the west and causing the high storm tops to cast a shadow.  This is a good sign of severe thunderstorms or at least heavy storms.

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Here are a couple of more visible satellite shots of the powerful storms to our west on Monday evening.  Large overshooting tops on the thunderstorms.  Severe storms.
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And here is a radar shot of that squall line - this is from Monday evening

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Here is an amazing radar image (below) from Sunday nights severe weather outbreak to our northwest.  This is a radar image from Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri.  You can see a string of supercells lined up.  Quite amazing to see them all bunched up together.  Some of these storms produced large hail and tornadoes.

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This image is from Gibson Ridge Radar AE

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Here is an image showing where large hail - again the storms lined up from east to west.

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Here is the 3D view of the cells

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And a slice through the storms with the radar

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Significant to major flooding will continue on portions of the Mississippi River and Missouri River basins.  This will be a long summer of flooding for some areas. 

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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.

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Thunderstorms will return on Tuesday and Wednesday - lightning and high winds will be the primary concern.  Outside of thunderstorms we will also have gradient winds - gradient winds are caused by the difference in pressure between the low to our north and the high to our south.  These winds - at any given time during the day could gust over 25-30 mph.  Boaters use caution.
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Significant to major flooding is likely to continue across the Missouri Valley in the coming weeks - latest river information - click here.
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To follow the flood information along the Missouri River - click here for a special Facebook page that has been made for those concerned.

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We are going to have to monitor the current pattern - these mesoscale thunderstorm complexes that keep moving through the region can produce heavy rainfall.  This will cause rivers to rise even further.  Also portions of eastern Kentucky are experiencing significant flooding.

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To view the interactive river map below - click here.  The areas in purple and red are experiencing significant flooding issues.  

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River Stages - Click Here  

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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours.  Keep in mind that during the summer months heavy thunderstorms can produce excessive amounts of rain in a short period of time.  This map is to give you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Some areas during the summer months will pick up very little precipitation while neighboring areas receive quite a bit.  Thus is the nature of thunderstorms and the summer pattern.

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If you would like to view the 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.

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ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.

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Remember you can now view all of the temperature graphics (that you see below) - and more - by clicking here

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Below image - Low temperatures for Tuesday morning

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Below image - High temperatures for Tuesday afternoon.

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Below image - Low temperatures for Wednesday morning

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Below image - High temperatures for Wednesday afternoon

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Let's also take a look (the map below) at the expected heat index for tomorrow afternoon.  You can view this map for other days by clicking here.  Remember - the heat index is what the temperature feels like to your body when the temperature and humidity are combined.  Heat index calculator can be viewed by clicking here.

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Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here

Heat safety advice and information - click here

How much above or below normal will high temperatures be tomorrow?

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The map below shows you the departure from normal highs (normal highs are around 82-85 degrees).  This gives you a general idea of the type of weather pattern we are in.  Warmer than normal or cooler than normal?  

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For example if the normal high is 80 degrees and the actual high is 90 degrees then we would be 10 degrees above normal. You can find this map on the web-site, as well - click here.

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These are the record highs and lows for June 19th, 2011.  A total of 124 reports.  The purple dots are record low temperatures and the red dots are record high temperatures.  To view the most up to date maps - with details on each record high and low - click here.

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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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Tropical development is not anticipated at this time.

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You can view satellite images of the tropics by clicking here  - we have a variety of satellite images available on the Weather Observatory web-site.

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Latest National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook - click here.
 
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You can see from the maps below that a large chunk of real estate to our south and west is experiencing drought conditions. You can view these maps by clicking here, as well.

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You can learn more about the current drought by visiting this Climate Prediction Center website - click here.
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You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast maps for temperature and precipitation!  Maps are available by clicking here.
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1.  We should dry out by Thursday - a chance for a few remaining showers on Wednesday night and Thursday morning.  But I believe most of the precip chances will come to an end during that time period.

2.  More seasonable temperatures will arrive on Wednesday through Friday - even some below normal temperatures.  

3.  Thunderstorms chance may very well return by the weekend as a number of disturbances move through the region.  Each of these disturbances could trigger thunderstorm complexes - similar to what happened last week.  We will need to monitor for severe thunderstorm risks.  We are going to have to monitor this pattern - northwest flow events can produce copious amounts of rain.

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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here

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All other states- Click Here

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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

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You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends. 

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Don't forget that our friends at the Paducah, Kentucky US National Weather Service Office now has a Facebook page, as well!  Click here and then hit LIKE at the top of their page.

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management now has a Facebook page?  This is a great way to stay in touch with local officials during and before a natural disaster.  Here is their page - hit LIKE at the top of the button.

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You can also find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson

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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
"We don't control the weather - we just predict it"
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McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

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I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of widespread severe weather episodes.  Basically this is a "heads up" email.  If you would like to subscribe then click here.   

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