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HEADLINE: An unsettled pattern of weather is shaping up for our region. This will be in response to the northwest flow aloft and being out on the outer ridge of the area of high pressure. We will be in the ring of fire (see my summer outlook post at the end of May). Basically the ring of fire is the edge of the ridge of high pressure where clusters of showers and thunderstorms - some severe - can repeatedly move over the same area.
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A pattern like this can produce pockets of severe weather and heavy rains. One of these thunderstorm clusters/complexes impacted our region on Saturday - causing some wind damage and large hail - heavy rain, as well - for a few counties. Another one of these clusters/complexes will impact portions of the region late Sunday night and Monday morning - then another one will likely form on Monday night. Additional complexes will be possible into the week..
I now offer a product where you can track the probability of rain (and you can choose the amount of rain you want to observe) - those graphics can be viewed here - you can get a better idea of where each complex is forecast to track. Click here.
This will be a busy pattern for meteorologists. Timing each event will be tricky. Best advice - stay tuned to changing weather conditions and listen to NOAA Weather Radio and local media for the most up to date information. I suspect we will have several severe thunderstorm watches and tornado watches in the coming days (remember a watch means that conditions favor severe weather). Warnings will also be likely in some of our counties. .
Watches and warnings can be viewed here - drill down to your state - click here ...
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky - for your local town - click here---
Monday: Partly cloudy. A good chance for morning showers and thunderstorms over at least the western half of the region - along the Mississippi River westward. A bit less uncertain areas to the east of the Mississippi River. Then a chance for a few thunderstorms during the afternoon over the region. Near normal to below normal temperatures.
Highs: in the 81-86 degree range | Heat index: Values n/a | Wind: East winds at 10-15 mph becoming southeast at 5-10 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 84 degrees. .
Monday night: Partly cloudy. A good chance for thunderstorms - some storms may produce severe weather. Some storms may produce locally heavy rain. Near normal temperatures.Lows: around 65-70 degrees | Wind: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.
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Tuesday: Partly sunny with a slight chance for thunderstorms. Near normal temperatures.
Highs: around 84-89 degrees | Heat index: Values n/a | Wind: Southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.---
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy with a good chance for thunderstorms around the area. Near normal temperatures.
Lows: around 65-70 degrees | Wind: Southerly winds. Wind speeds at 5-15 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 63 degrees..---
Wednesday: Partly sunny. A chance for a period of showers and thunderstorms. Near normal temperatures.
Highs: around 85-89 degrees | Heat index: Values n/a | Wind: Southeasterly winds at 10-15 mph over most of the area. Southern counties may remain in the southerly winds at 10-15 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 84 degrees..
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Also our new forecast page is finished! Just click the link below to see all of our Weather Observatory graphics - from the severe weather outlook to lake and river stages - extended outlooks - monthly outlooks - satellite - and more!.
Weather Observatory Graphics and Forecast Page
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 72 hours...
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.Monday: A few severe storms will be possible early in the morning hours - especially over the western half of the region - along the MS River and west. Then a chance for a few scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon hours.
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Monday night: Thunderstorms are again possible - some of the storms could produce high winds and hail. Isolated tornadoes. We will need to fine tune the greatest threat area in later outlooks.
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Tuesday: Thunderstorms are again possible - some of the storms could produce high winds and hail. Isolated tornadoes. We will need to fine tune the greatest threat area in later outlooks.
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Tuesday Night: Thunderstorms are again possible - some of the storms could produce high winds and hail. Isolated tornadoes. We will need to fine tune the greatest threat area in later outlooks.
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Wednesday: A few thunderstorms will be possible. Uncertain about the severe potential. Check back.
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Here is the official severe weather outlook graphic for Monday - from the Storm Prediction Center - remember they are the ones that issue the official outlooks for severe weather. They have our region in a "risk" for severe storms - meaning storms that could produce winds greater than 58 mph - hail to the size of quarters or larger and tornadoes..
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Significant to major flooding is likely to continue across the Missouri Valley in the coming weeks - latest river information - click here.
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How much rain is forecast to fall over the coming days? Keep in mind that this is broad brushed and individual thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rain..
Click here for latest maps...
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I now offer a product where you can track the probability of rain (and you can choose the amount of rain you want to observe) - those graphics can be viewed here - you can get a better idea of where each complex is forecast to track. Click here
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Here is an example of one of those maps - the maps can be viewed in six hour time frames. This first map shows the chances for 0.10" of rain to fall between 2 am and 8 am on Monday morning. You can also go to the web-site link above and change the amounts to higher values. Basically this map shows you "what are the chances of it raining 0.10" at my location between 2 am and 8 am on Monday morning"
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This next map - below - shows you what the chances of 0.10" of rain would be at your location between 8 am and 2 pm on Monday. Again you can find these maps by clicking here.
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Remember you can now view all of the temperature graphics (that you see below) - and more - by clicking here
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Below image - Low temperatures for Monday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Monday afternoon
Below image - High temperatures for Monday afternoon
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Below image - Low temperatures for Tuesday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Tuesday afternoon
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Let's also take a look (the map below) at the expected heat index for tomorrow afternoon. Remember - the heat index is what the temperature feels like to your body when the temperature and humidity are combined.
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Not too bad for Monday - the heat index will not be an issue for most of our counties - more likely an issue as you move into Arkansas and Tennessee.
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(remember you can find all of these maps on the web-site - here)
Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here
Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here
Heat safety advice and information - click here
How much above or below normal will high temperatures be tomorrow?
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The map below shows you the departure from normal highs (normal highs are around 79-82 degrees). For example if the normal high is 80 degrees and the actual high is 90 degrees then we would be 10 degrees above normal. You can find this map on the web-site, as well - click here.
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Zoomed in version of that map
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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You can view satellite images of the tropics by clicking here - we have a variety of satellite images available on the Weather Observatory web-site. .
Latest National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook - click here. --------------------
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You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts! Maps are available by clicking here.
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1. Temperatures this week will be near normal. Mostly in the 80s - a better chance of 90s as you move south in the area - closer to the KY/TN border and southward. Normal high temperatures this time of the year would be around 85 degrees.
2. An active week ahead of us. We will be riding the ring of fire boundary - that means the ridge of high pressure has shifted further away from our region (the ridge of high pressure was causing all of the heat and humidity). But since we will be near the edge of the high pressure area we will have disturbances moving through the jet stream flow. This will produce periodic clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Some areas may see several inches of rain in the coming week. This will be especially true of areas that end up experiencing multiple thunderstorm complexes.
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3. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. We may experience additional severe weather risks beyond that time period. Emergency managers and spotters should stay abreast of the latest chances in the weather forecasts this week. Severe weather watches may be necessary for some of our counties. Report all severe weather to local law enforcement or your local National Weather Service office. You can also Twitter the Paducah, KY NWS Office by using hash-tag #nwspah. .
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You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends.
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You can also find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson.
Don't forget that the Paducah, Kentucky US National Weather Service Office now has a Facebook page, as well! Click here and then hit LIKE at the top of their page.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson---
"We don't control the weather - we just predict it"
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McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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Other States- Click Here
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of widespread severe weather episodes. Basically this is a "heads up" email. If you would like to subscribe then click here.
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Officehttp://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of widespread severe weather episodes. Basically this is a "heads up" email. If you would like to subscribe then click here.
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