June 29th-30th - a two day post! Since the weather breaks :) - hot days ahead

Wednesday and Thursday Forecast - June 29th and 30th - 2011 

.

This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox.  There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer

---

--

This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

Remainder of tonight - Tuesday night: A few clouds.  A bit cooler.  Below normal temperatures.  Lows:  in the 58-62 degree range  | Wind: Calm.  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.
-

Wednesday:  Mostly sunny.  Below normal temperatures.

Highs:  in the 84-86 degree range.  | Heat index:  Values - low | Wind:  East winds at 10 mph.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.

.

Wednesday night:  Mostly clear.  Pleasant.  Below normal temperatures.

Lows: around 60 degrees  |  Wind:  Northerly winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.

-

Thursday:  Mostly sunny.  Above normal temperatures.

Highs:  around 85-89 degrees   | Heat index:  around 89-95 degrees  | Wind: Southeast winds at 10-15 mph.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.

-

Thursday night:  Mostly clear.  Above normal temperatures.

Lows: around 67 degrees  |  Wind: Easterly winds  at 10 mph.  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.

-

Friday:  Mostly sunny and hot.   Above normal temperatures.

Highs:  around 88-93 degrees  |  Heat index:  In the 95-97 degree range |  Wind: Southerly winds at 10-15 mph - Normal highs for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.
-

.

.

No significant changes to the forecast.  I have updated some maps on the ongoing drought and flood in the country.  Tale of two extremes.  Feast or famine is what I call this.

.

.

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

.

..

Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here

.

---

---- 
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 48 hours...  

.

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

or 

Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here

 

Tuesday night:   Severe weather is not anticipated  

.
Wednesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated 

.

Wednesday night:   Severe weather is not anticipated 

.
Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated 

. 

Lightning Safety week has arrived!  You can learn more about lightning safety by clicking here.

.

.
Here are the graphics for the coming days.  Remember the orange area represents the slight risk (that is what the Storm Prediction Center calls it - not my favorite choice of wording) area for severe thunderstorms.  The orange area means that severe thunderstorms will be possible but will most likely not produce widespread severe weather.  The yellow area represents that areas where some thunderstorms will likely occur - but will remain, for the most part, below severe limits.  A severe storm is one that produces winds of at least 58 mph and quarter size hail or larger.  And/or tornadoes.

.

Wednesday's severe weather outlook graphic   You can see we are once again in a risk for some severe storms.

.

.

Then here is the Thursday outlook (below).  Remember that these maps will be updated several times between now and tomorrow - so check the main link here for the latest outlooks.
.

.

.
To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here

---

All other states- Click Here

.

.

.

. 
HEADLINE:   Heavy thunderstorms overnight (Monday night - Tuesday morning) brought quite the lightning show to portions of the region.  Areas along the KY/TN border reported near constant lightning with some of the storms - during the wee hours of the morning.

.

A complex of severe thunderstorms formed over southern Missouri during the overnight period and moved southeast into parts of the Missouri Bootheel - northeast Arkansas - southwest Kentucky and western Tennessee.  Some of these storms produced winds in excess of 70 mph.  Quite a bit of wind damage was reported over Arkansas and Tennessee.

.

We will have a short break from the active weather on Wednesday into at least Friday and Saturday.  Some uncertainty remains on the Sunday and Monday forecast - I will need to update.

.

Hot temperatures will arrive by weeks end - highs into the 90s with heat index values likely topping 100 by the weekend.  Those who have to be outdoors this weekend should use caution.

.

I am also concerned about the upcoming weeks.  Additional rounds of heavy to severe thunderstorms appear likely over the Missouri Valley into portions of the Ohio Valley.  This will cause flooding of rivers.  The Ohio River will likely back up because of high waters on the Mississippi River.  This will need to be monitored.  It is still early to make a call on just how high the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers will rise.

.

Below is a map showing where some of the severe weather occurred this morning (Tuesday morning).  Mostly over Arkansas and Tennessee - there were some reports of damage in Murray, KY - as well.

.

.

Significant to major flooding will continue on portions of the Mississippi River and Missouri River basins.  This will be a long summer of flooding for some areas.  We are also concerned that the Ohio River will continue to back up.  This could cause flooding over parts of southern IL and western KY.  Stay tuned.

.

You can listen to LIVE reports from Minot, North Dakota (serious river flooding in that city) - click here

.

We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 

.

The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.

.

.

. 

We are not expecting any severe weather over the next two days.  Camping weather should be great.  The upcoming weekend may bring some storm chances on Sunday - will monitor.  Otherwise the big story will be the heat and humidity - returning.
.

----------------------------- 

.

.

.

Significant to major flooding is likely to continue across the Missouri Valley in the coming weeks - latest river information - click here.
.
To follow the flood information along the Missouri River - click here for a special Facebook page that has been made for those concerned.

.

.

We are going to have to monitor the current pattern - these mesoscale thunderstorm complexes that keep moving through the region can produce heavy rainfall.  This will cause rivers to rise even further.  

.

The Ohio River is starting to back up because of the high water levels on the Mississippi River.  This is going to be a concern for quite some time to come (perhaps WELL into the summer months).  Those living along rivers should monitor updated forecasts.

.

To view the interactive river map below - click here.  The areas in purple and red are experiencing significant flooding issues.  

.

.

.

The map above above shows stream flow.  VERY high for this time of the year.  This is quite unusual and could cause major problems for the Missouri River Basin.  I am forecasting MAJOR flooding to continue WELL into the summer months over the Missouri River Basin.  Near record or even record flooding in some communities.  

.

Sharp rises on the Mississippi River are also going to occur.  The flooding could continue into late July or even August.

.

This flooding could be enhanced if thunderstorm complexes continue to move over the same areas - Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. Remember that this was exactly the scenario I discussed in the late May summer outlook.  Everything seems to be coming together - as expected.  The biggest question/concern for the summer outlook might end up being whether the temperature part of the forecast verifies.  Time will tell.

.

.

River Forecast Stages - Click Here  

.

.

.

Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours.  Keep in mind that during the summer months heavy thunderstorms can produce excessive amounts of rain in a short period of time.  This map is to give you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Some areas during the summer months will pick up very little precipitation while neighboring areas receive quite a bit.  Thus is the nature of thunderstorms and the summer pattern.
.

NO RAIN IS FORECAST IN OUR LOCAL COUNTIES 

.

If you would like to view the 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.

.

.

I also now have thunderstorm probabilities available on the web-site - you can click hour by hour and see where the best chances for thunderstorms will exist.  Here is the link - you can also choose your own region by clicking on a state.

ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
.

You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.

.

.

Remember you can now view all of the temperature graphics (that you see below) - and more - by clicking here

.

.

Below image - Low temperatures for Wednesday morning

.

Below image - High temperatures for Wednesday afternoon.

.

Below image - Low temperatures for Thursday morning

.

Below image - High temperatures for Thursday afternoon

.

.

.

.

Let's also take a look (the map below) at the expected heat index for tomorrow afternoon.  You can view this map for other days by clicking here.  Remember - the heat index is what the temperature feels like to your body when the temperature and humidity are combined.  Heat index calculator can be viewed by clicking here.

.

Heat index values won't be a big issue on Tuesday - a cold front will pass through the area.  This will bring lower temperatures and lower humidity levels.  

.

This first map is for Wednesday and the second map is for Thursday - heat index values will be on the rise in the coming days - it will be an issue this weekend with readings above 100 degrees.

.

Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here

Heat safety advice and information - click here

How much above or below normal will high temperatures be tomorrow?

.

The map below shows you the departure from normal highs (normal highs are around 82-85 degrees).  This gives you a general idea of the type of weather pattern we are in.  Warmer than normal or cooler than normal?  

.

For example if the normal high is 80 degrees and the actual high is 90 degrees then we would be 10 degrees above normal. You can find this map on the web-site, as well - click here.

.

First map is for Wednesday and second map is for Thursday - you can see we are once again creeping back up into the above normal range.

.

.

666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666

These are the record highs and lows for June 27th (and 28th), 2011.  A total of 74 reports on the 27th and 24 reports on the 28th (note we are seeing an increase over the last couple of days of the heat returning - more record highs).  The purple dots are record low temperatures and the red dots are record high temperatures.  To view the most up to date maps - with details on each record high and low - click here.

.

You can see the drought heating things up in Texas

.

..

.

We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
---
--------------------

.

Tropical Storm Arlene has formed in the southwestern portion of the Gulf of Mexico.  It is forecast to track into Mexico.

.

You can view satellite images of the tropics by clicking here  - we have a variety of satellite images available on the Weather Observatory web-site. 

.

.

Above  is a satellite view from our web-site showing the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic.

Latest Official National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook - click here.
 
--------------------

.
You can see from the maps (over the last weeks worth of posting) that a large chunk of real estate to our south and west is experiencing drought conditions. You can view these maps by clicking here, as well.
.
Here is the Palmer Drought Index - feast or famine - feast or famine.  Either too wet or too dry.  So it goes - or so it seems.
.

.

Here are a few more maps that show you the SHARP contrast between drought and flood areas.  Also a look at the last 30 days of precipitation in the Illinois/Missouri region.  Impressive to say the least.
.

.

.

You can learn more about the current drought by visiting this Climate Prediction Center website - click here.
.

.

---

--
You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast maps for temperature and precipitation!  Maps are available by clicking here.

.

Check out the precipitation forecast for the upcoming weeks - the thunderstorm complexes that have plagued our region for the last few weeks appear to be returning after our brief spat of hot weather.

.

This is exactly what my concern was in the summer forecast that was put out in late May.  Multiple rounds of heavy thunderstorm complexes rolling in from the NW.  NW events is what I call them.  They bring heavy rain and periods of severe weather.  This could spell bad news for the Missouri River Basin.
.

.

.

1.  HOT will be the concern for the next few days - into the weekend.  Heat index values above 100 - use caution if outside on Friday into the weekend/holiday.

2.  I continue to be quite concerned about the flood potential this summer of the Missouri and Mississippi River basins. 

.

3.  Unsettled pattern returns late this weekend into next week - we will once again find ourselves between the heat ridge and the more active northern edge of the heat ridge.  This means a few more storm chances.  Will monitor - the exact placement of the heat ridge will be important in determining where the thunderstorms will track.

.

To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here

---

All other states- Click Here

.

For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

.

.

You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends. 

.

Don't forget that our friends at the Paducah, Kentucky US National Weather Service Office now has a Facebook page, as well!  Click here and then hit LIKE at the top of their page.

.

The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management now has a Facebook page?  This is a great way to stay in touch with local officials during and before a natural disaster.  Here is their page - hit LIKE at the top of the button.

.

You can also find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson

.
---

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
"We don't control the weather - we just predict it"
.
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

--------------------

I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of widespread severe weather episodes.  Basically this is a "heads up" email.  If you would like to subscribe then click here.   

.

 

---

This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service!

.

....