October 24, 2011
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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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VIDEO IS BEST VIEWED IN FULL SCREEN MODE - It has been uploaded in high resolution (to view in full screen mode just click on the YouTube hover over button at the bottom of the video)
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here.
Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Sunday night: A few clouds - not as cold as previous nights. Below normal temperatures.
Lows: in the 46-52 degree range. | Wind: Southwest winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 46 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%My confidence in this forecast is VERY high
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Monday: A few clouds - mild/warm. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 70-75 degree range. | Wind: Southwest winds becoming northwest winds at 5-10 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 70 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%. My confidence in this forecast is VERY high
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Monday night: A few patchy clouds. Above normal temperatures.
Lows: around 52-55 degrees | Wind: South/southwest winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 46 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%.
My confidence in this forecast is VERY high
My confidence in this forecast is VERY high
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Tuesday: Warm - mostly sunny. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 76-82 degrees. | Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph - gusts to 15 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 70 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0% My confidence in this forecast is VERY high
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No big concerns for the next 24 hours.
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No - nothing to worry about for the next 24 hours.
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No wild card in the 48 hour forecast.
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Tweaked temperatures a bit - raised them a few degrees for Monday.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday Night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday Night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Sunday brought quite a few clouds to the region. Overall temperatures were warmer than the previous few days. Not bad - other than the clouds.
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A storm system moved to our south overnight with numerous reports of large hail in Oklahoma. The storms also produced heavy rain from Oklahoma into part of Texas and Arkansas.
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Here are the storm reports from overnight. You can view these for yourself in more detail by clicking here.
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Like I said above - temperatures will be quite a bit above normal on both Monday and Tuesday - followed by below normal temperatures on Thursday and Friday. Here is a map that shows you just how much above or below normal temperatures will be. A roller coaster ride! The first map is for Monday - the second map is for Tuesday - the last map is for Friday. Keep in mind that this is showing HOW MANY degrees above or below normal we will be. The red/yellow areas are above normal and the blue would be below normal. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 70 degrees and normal lows are around 46 degrees.
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Tuesday
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Friday (cooler behind the storm system)
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I don't have any major concerns for the weather on Monday. Warm temperatures - it will feel like spring. Enjoy this while it lasts.
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Rain will enter the forecast on Wednesday and continue into Thursday/Thursday evening. Whether the system moves out before Thursday night and Friday morning is still uncertain. I believe most of the rain - the bulk of the rain will fall later on Wednesday into Thursday afternoon. Rainfall totals of 0.30-0.60" are likely region wide. .
It is possible that heavier rainfall totals could fall in or near our region. Part of this will depend on the speed of the front and whether an area of low pressure deepens just to our south and east.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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Snow is not in the forecast.
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Snow is not in the forecast.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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1. Next weekend should be dry and cool. The next couple of weeks should bring mostly below normal temperatures and perhaps below normal precipitation. Several Canadian High Pressure systems are forecast to move into the eastern half of the United States. These high pressure systems are normally associated with cool weather (cold weather in the winter months).
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The next storm of significant may arrive around the November 3-7th time frame. Will have to monitor for thunderstorms, as well. Long way off.
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Here is the latest 8-14 day precipitation outlook - you can see we are forecast to be in the dry or below normal precipitation zone. This is for the October 31 through November 4th time period. The good news is that we will at least pick up some rain this week.
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The NAO has been mostly neutral to positive over the last few weeks. I like to watch the NAO during the fall/winter months. Negative NAO typically will bring cold and stormy weather to our region. The forecast for the NAO over the next 10 days is for it to remain neutral to possibly a bit negative towards the very end of the month.
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Here is a map that shows you what typically occurs when the NAO is positive (top graphic) and negative (bottom graphic).
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Last year we had a strong negative NAO for much of the winter - and of course we were cold much of the winter. More information on the NAO
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Let's bring up the forecast conditions for the La Nina in the Pacific - perhaps this event will dip down in the -1.0 range - decent La Nina. Some of the U.S. models tank it even deeper - those models are in question, however, because of their extreme solutions. I would not disagree with that assessment - they are showing some absurd numbers.
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Last year we had a strong negative NAO for much of the winter - and of course we were cold much of the winter. More information on the NAO
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Let's bring up the forecast conditions for the La Nina in the Pacific - perhaps this event will dip down in the -1.0 range - decent La Nina. Some of the U.S. models tank it even deeper - those models are in question, however, because of their extreme solutions. I would not disagree with that assessment - they are showing some absurd numbers.
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Anyway - here is what one set of models are showing - remember this is the second year for La Nina. Last winter was a La Nina winter, as well. La Nina is ONE of the elements we look for when putting together a winter forecast. More important is the NAO and even the PDO - the Pacific waters off the Alaska and western U.S. coastlines. Everything seems to be pointing towards a cold winter - again. Also a stormy/wet spring. Drought conditions will likely worsen over the Texas/Oklahoma region for a second straight year. Not a good situation for those folks. More information on La Nina - click here.
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The red lines below the zero mark are the ensemble forecasts for how cold this La Nina will become.
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The red lines below the zero mark are the ensemble forecasts for how cold this La Nina will become.
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Here is the forecast temperature departures for next Friday - the ensembles (a group of models) are expecting below normal temperatures over a wide area of the nation. This will be behind the mid-week storm system that will bring our region rain. Click image for real view size.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
. For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-sitehttp://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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