October 2, 2011: The first frost of the season - light for some areas

October 2, 2011:

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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

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Saturday night:  Clear and cool.  Frost possible.  Below normal temperatures.

Lows:  in the 34-40 degree range.  |  Wind: Northerly at 0-5 mph.  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.  Precipitation probability - 0%

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Sunday:  Mostly sunny and pleasant.  Below normal temperatures.

Highs:  in the 64-68 degree range.  |  Wind:  Northerly winds at 5 mph.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.  Precipitation probability - 0%
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Sunday night:  Mostly clear and cool.  Below normal temperatures.

Lows: around 37-44 degrees  |  Wind:  North/northwest winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.  Precipitation probability - 0%.

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Monday: A few clouds.  Pleasant.  Below normal temperatures.

Highs:  around 72-76 degrees. |  Wind: North winds at 10 mph.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.   Precipitation probability - 0%

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Tweaked winds a bit - no other major changes.  Video's are being posted again (each morning - blog is evening and video is morning)

Link:  http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm 

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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 24 hours... 

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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here

 

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Saturday night:   Severe weather is not anticipated.

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Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

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Sunday night:   Severe weather is not anticipated.

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Monday:   Severe weather is not anticipated. 

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You can view the most up to date graphics - clicking here.

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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here

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All other states- Click Here

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The map you see below can be viewed by clicking on the watch and warnings map links above.  The maps are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States - again this map is a sample map.  To view the actual interactive map - click here.

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HEADLINE:  Welcome to fall weather.  Many areas will dip down into the 30s and lower 40s tonight.  Some of the coldest air of the season - thus far.  Would not be a bit surprised to hear about light frost in a few of the favored cool spots.
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The map below shows you were frost is possible or likely.  The second map shows you where the official National Weather Service frost advisories have been issued (usually reserved for more significant frost chances)
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Sunday will be brilliant - no significant weather to discuss.

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I don't have any dramatic weather to talk about - a nice weekend ahead for the region.  I hope you are able to enjoy it.

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Check out today's temperature departure maps - this tells you how much above or below normal temperatures are.  Needless to say we are below normal!

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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.

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A cool weekend ahead for the region.  Sunday will be nice.  

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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.

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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.

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I have added thunderstorm probabilities to the web-site - you can click hour by hour and see where the best chances for thunderstorms will exist.  Here is the link - you can also choose your own region by clicking on a state.

ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here. 

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You can view the upcoming days high temperatures and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in - LINK

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Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here

We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU

 
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Drought continues across a large chunk of real estate.  This has been a concern for quite some time now.  Droughts tend to creep.  Many of you have witnessed the extreme fire conditions over portions of Texas and Oklahoma on the different news outlets.  I have been watching this drought slowly creep north and east over the last few months.  This will need to be monitored as we move into the fall and winter months.
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Here is the latest Palmer Drought Index.  Severe drought continues over Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and parts of Arkansas.  The areas in green are moist regions - the areas in orange and yellow are in need of rain.  The recent rains in our area have helped our cause to push back the drought to our south and west.

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You can view these and more drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here

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You can learn more about the current drought by visiting this Climate Prediction Center website - click here.
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1.  No big events in the near term forecast.  Watching a system for late next week.  Long way off - plenty of time to monitor.  Enjoy the fall like weather over the coming days.

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This map is the 8 to 14 day precipitation outlook.  Hints at a more active pattern?  Appears to be.  I looked over some ensembles today and they are pointing towards better chances of rain as we move towards the end of next week into the following week.  Will monitor.

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We normally see an uptick during the fall months - will keep an eye.  Don't forget that September is preparedness month.  For more information on the different types of severe weather that can impact our region - click here.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.

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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here

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All other states- Click Here

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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php