October 14, 2011: A beautiful weekend ahead of us - a few clouds Friday

October 14, 2011

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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Thursday night:  Cloudy early then some clearing.  Cooler.  Below normal temperatures.
Lows:  in the 46-50 degree range.  |  Wind: West winds at 5 mph  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 53 degrees.  Precipitation probability - 10%
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Friday:  Partly sunny and cool - pleasant.  Below normal temperatures.
Highs:  in the 67-74 degree range.  |  Wind:  Westerly winds at 5-15 mph - gusty at times - gusts to 25 mph possible.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 76 degreesPrecipitation probability - 0%.
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Friday night:  Mostly clear.  Cooler.  Below normal temperatures.
Lows: around 39-45 degrees  |  Wind:  West winds at 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 53 degrees.  Precipitation probability - 0%.
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Saturday:  Mostly sunny - cool start to the morning then pleasant.  Below normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 67-74 degrees. |  Wind: Northwest winds at 5-15 mph.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 76 degrees.   Precipitation probability - 0%
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Rain and thunderstorms likely again on Monday night and Tuesday morning.
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The wild card part of this forecast centers around whether or not we will see a few clouds on Friday.  
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No big changes.  Video's are being posted again (late morning and early afternoon  - blog is evening)
Link:  http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm 




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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 24 hours... 



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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
 
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Thursday night: 
Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Friday night:
  Severe weather is not anticipated..
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Saturday:   Severe weather is not anticipated.
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You can view the most up to date graphics - clicking here.
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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here


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All other states- Click Here
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The map you see below can be viewed by clicking on the watch and warnings map links above.  The maps are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States - again this map is a sample map.  To view the actual interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE:  The cold front arrived just as expected on Thursday - along and ahead of the front were showers and thunderstorms.  Rainfall totals on Wednesday night and Thursday morning were mostly in the 0.15-0.70" range - some places picked up more than others and some locations were on the low range of the forecast.  I actually picked up a little over 0.60" here at my place.  Much much needed rainfall - the whole month has been dry up to this point.
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Friday will bring cooler temperatures - pleasant.  A few clouds may move in during the late afternoon hours on Friday and Friday evening.  Lows on Saturday morning will dip into the 40s over most of our counties.  There will be some gusty winds from time to time. 
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Another cold front will approach the region on Monday night and Tuesday - this will bring the next chance for rain and possibly some thunderstorms.  Will need to monitor for any severe weather threat.  Then another cool down will follow the front..

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Temperatures towards the middle of next week may dip back down into the 30s.  Still some time to monitor that part of the forecast. 
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Don't forget you can sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email - to sign up click this link.


We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.


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Breezy conditions the next couple of days.  Winds may gust over 20 mph from time to time - mainly during the daytime hours.  Keep this in mind if you are out on area lakes.  Otherwise the weekend will be wonderful.


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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. 
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.
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I have added thunderstorm probabilities to the web-site - you can click hour by hour and see where the best chances for thunderstorms will exist.  Here is the link - you can also choose your own region by clicking on a state.


ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperatures and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in - LINK
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Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here




We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
 
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Drought continues across a large chunk of real estate.  This has been a concern for quite some time now.  Droughts tend to creep.  Many of you have witnessed the extreme fire conditions over portions of Texas and Oklahoma on the different news outlets.  I have been watching this drought slowly creep north and east over the last few months.  This will need to be monitored as we move into the fall and winter months.
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Here is the latest Crop Moisture Index map.  Severe drought continues over Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and parts of Arkansas.  The areas in green are moist regions - the areas in orange and yellow are in need of rain.  

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You can view these and more drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here


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You can learn more about the current drought by visiting this Climate Prediction Center website - click here.
 


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1.  BEAUTIFUL weekend on tap for the region.  I hope everyone takes advantage of the nice weather while it lasts.
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The next system arrives on Monday night and Tuesday.  Showers and thunderstorms will spread into the region from west to east - a few storms could be on the heavy side.  Too soon to make a call on severe weather.  Will monitor and update.  Much cooler behind the front for the middle of next week.  :)
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Here is what the GFS is showing for the map on Monday night - quite the area of low pressure in the Ohio Valley - little doubt this would produce some severe weather - just need to monitor the track and intensity as we move into the weekend.  Best chance for severe may be to our west.  Will monitor.
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Also let's keep an eye on the Caribbean for a possible hurricane developing over the coming days.  Data doesn't exactly agree on the evolution of this storm - but something worth watching.
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The map below shows the possible hurricane - the isobars (pressure lines) and the colors are rainfall - scale at the bottom of the page.
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The potential for a late season hurricane is increasing.
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You will notice that I post the extended maps when I agree with them - I typically don't post them when I disagree.  I see the updated six to ten and eight to fourteen day outlook shows mostly below normal temperatures - I agree.
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The blue is where temperatures are forecast to be below normal (probabilities favor below normal temperatures)
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here


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All other states- Click Here


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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

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