October 13, 2011: Rain - ending by Thursday afternoon. Cooler Friday

October 13, 2011

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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

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Wednesday night:  Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.  Near normal temperatures.

Lows:  in the 56-62 degree range.  |  Wind: South winds at 5 mph  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 53 degrees.  Precipitation probability - 90%

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Thursday:  Mostly cloudy the first half of the day with scattered showers.  Rain coming to an end from west to east during the late morning and afternoon hours.  A few showers may linger in the afternoon - skies will become partly cloudy late in the afternoon.  Below normal temperatures.

Highs:  in the 70-75 degree range.  |  Wind:  Westerly winds at 5-15 mph - gusty at times - gusts to 30 mph possible.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 76 degrees.  Precipitation probability - 60% early in the day.
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Thursday night:  Partly cloudy.  Below normal temperatures.

Lows: around 44-50 degrees  |  Wind:  West winds at 5-15 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 53 degrees.  Precipitation probability - 0%.

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Friday: A few clouds.  Below normal temperatures.

Highs:  around 65-72 degrees. |  Wind: Northerly winds at 5-15 mph.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 76 degrees.   Precipitation probability - 0%
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The wild card part of this forecast centers around whether or not we will see a few more showers linger into Thursday afternoon.  It appears the bulk of the rain will be tonight into Thursday morning. 

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No big changes.  Video's are being posted again (late morning and early afternoon  - blog is evening)

Link:  http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm 

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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 24 hours... 

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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here

 

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Wednesday night:   An isolated severe storm can't be ruled out - especially over southeast Missouri.  Widespread severe weather is not anticipated.

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Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

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Thursday night:   Severe weather is not anticipated..

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Friday:   Severe weather is not anticipated.

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You can view the most up to date graphics - clicking here.

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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here

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All other states- Click Here

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The map you see below can be viewed by clicking on the watch and warnings map links above.  The maps are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States - again this map is a sample map.  To view the actual interactive map - click here.

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HEADLINE:  Rain is moving into the region this afternoon and will continue to spread east into the overnight hours (Wednesday night).  Rainfall totals should be in the 0.15-0.50" range.  A few thunderstorms will likely occur, as well.  I am not expecting significant severe weather.
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Friday will bring cooler temperatures - pleasant.  Lows on Saturday morning will dip into the 40s over most of our counties.
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Another cold front will approach the region on Monday night and Tuesday - this will bring the next chance for rain and possibly some thunderstorms.  Will need to monitor for any severe weather threat.  Then another cool down.
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Some of the data indicates a significant fall storm system at the end of the month.  Plenty of time to monitor that particular system.
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Don't forget you can sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email - to sign up click this link.

We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.

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Rain tonight (Wednesday night) into Thursday morning.  Breezy conditions possible behind the cold front on Thursday afternoon and again on Friday during the day and Saturday during the day - mostly from the west/northwest at 10-15 mph - gusts on lakes might approach 20-25 mph at times.

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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. 

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Mostly in the 0.15-0.50" range for our region.  We do need the moisture.

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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.

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I have added thunderstorm probabilities to the web-site - you can click hour by hour and see where the best chances for thunderstorms will exist.  Here is the link - you can also choose your own region by clicking on a state.

ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here. 

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You can view the upcoming days high temperatures and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in - LINK

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Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here

We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU

 
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Drought continues across a large chunk of real estate.  This has been a concern for quite some time now.  Droughts tend to creep.  Many of you have witnessed the extreme fire conditions over portions of Texas and Oklahoma on the different news outlets.  I have been watching this drought slowly creep north and east over the last few months.  This will need to be monitored as we move into the fall and winter months.
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Here is the latest Soil Moisture Anomaly map.  Severe drought continues over Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and parts of Arkansas.  The areas in green are moist regions - the areas in orange and yellow are in need of rain.  

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You can see that the rains a few weeks ago tipped us a bit into the green.  I picked up over 3" from that event.  Over 6" for the month of September here at my location in Massac County, IL

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You can view these and more drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here

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You can learn more about the current drought by visiting this Climate Prediction Center website - click here.
 

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1.  A nice weekend ahead.  We may see another chance of rain early next week and later next week - colder weather is also showing up on the map.  The pattern appears to be trying to turn more active as we push into late October and early November.  Typical for this time of the year.
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You will notice that I post the extended maps when I agree with them - I typically don't post them when I disagree.  I see the updated six to ten and eight to fourteen day outlook shows mostly below normal temperatures - I agree.

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The blue is where temperatures are forecast to be below normal (probabilities favor below normal temperatures)

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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.

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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here

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All other states- Click Here

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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php