October 30, 2011: Increasing signals for unsettled weather

October 30, 2011

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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Saturday night:  Mostly clear with frost possibleBelow normal temperatures.
Lows:  in the 32-37 degree range.  |  Wind:  South/southwest winds at 5 mph.  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.  Precipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is very high

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Sunday:  Partly cloudy and windy at times.  Use caution or avoid outdoor burning - winds and low humidity could enhance the brush fire threat.  Below normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 58-64 degree range.  |  Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 67 degreesPrecipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is high

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Sunday night:  Partly cloudy.  Below normal temperatures.
Lows: around 39-44 degrees  |  Wind:  Winds becoming southwest at 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.  Precipitation probability - 0%.
My confidence in this forecast is high
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Monday:  A few clouds.  Below normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 60-65 degrees. |  Wind: Westerly winds at 10-15 mph.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.   Precipitation probability - 0% 
My confidence in this forecast is very high 
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No major concerns for the next 24 hours.  If you are boating on Sunday note that gusty winds will be possible.  Also you might want to avoid burning brush or leaves on Sunday.
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No major concerns for the next 24 hours.  If you are boating on Sunday then note the gusty winds in the forecast.
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Wild card in the forecast - none.


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No major changes in the forecast.


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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.  More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here 
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Saturday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No

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Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Sunday:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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Monday night :
  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Monday night:  Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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Tuesday:   Severe weather is not anticipated.   No snow or ice.
Tuesday:  Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms?  No

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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE:   Well - Saturday was not too bad on the weather front - a cool start to the morning with lows in the 30s - afternoon highs, though, made it into the upper 50s and lower 60s across the region.  A bit below normal - but nothing to complain about.
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I am sure most of you have heard about the snowstorm in the northeast - this is a bit early and a bit unusual.  Many areas still have their fall foliage - that combined with the heavy early season wet snow is causing power lines to break and tree branches to snap.  No doubt this will be an expensive storm for many areas. 
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Here is a photograph from the Weather Underground web-site - click photo for real view size - this photograph is from Connecticut
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Our region will find itself on the south end of a storm system moving through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.  This means an increase in clouds and a small chance for showers over the northeast part of our area - closer to Evansville and then east of there.
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Halloween should be dry and cool.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 


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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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Snow is not in our local forecast.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps .  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here

Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps.  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range:  November 2nd - 4th
Event:  Rain and possible  thunderstorms
Severe Risk:  Severe weather (hail to 1" or larger, winds of 58 mph or greater, and/or tornadoes) risk appears very small or non-existent. 
Details:  Cold front and low pressure area to our west - moves east. 
Impact:  Rainfall totals of 0.30-0.60"

Confidence:  Medium
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Date Range:  November 6th-November 8th
Event:  Showers and thunderstorms
Severe Risk:  Too soon to know this information
Details:  Deep low over the Midwest with strong cold front
Confidence:  Low
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1.  The big story in the medium and long range continues to be two separate storm systems.  One for the Wednesday/Thursday time frame and another around the 6th-8th time frame.
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Right now it appears that an area of low pressure will form over Arkansas or Missouri on Wednesday or Wednesday night and bring a chance for rain and/or thunderstorms for our region.  Rainfall totals of 0.30-0.60 will be possible with this system.  Still several days away and I am sure I will need to tweak the forecast timing in future updates.
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The next potential system arrives late in the period - perhaps around November 6th-8th.  This is a system that I have been talking about since the 22nd or 23rd of October.  Whether it verifies or not - still to be seen.  Potential exists for rain and thunderstorms in our area - if the storm forms as I believe it will then there could be some severe thunderstorms in the central United States.  Stay tuned for updates.
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November is looking as if it will be a bit of a roller coaster in the temperature department - if we do end up with several deep storm systems then we would experience warm air moving up ahead of the storms and then cold air behind the systems.  Analogs are showing a cold December.
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One trend I have noticed over the last few weeks is that the low pressure areas are deepening quicker and more intense than normal - this has been especially true as they move to the east of our region.  Will this be a trend for winter?  Something I am also watching.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here




All other states- Click Here
.  For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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