October 11, 2011: Rain chances increase Wednesday into Thursday

October 11, 2011:

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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Monday night:  A few high clouds.  Near normal temperatures.
Lows:  in the 50-55 degree range.  |  Wind: Calm winds.  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.  Precipitation probability - 0%
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Tuesday:  Partly sunny and mild.  Above normal temperatures.
Highs:  in the 75-81 degree range.  |  Wind:  Easterly winds at 5-15 mph.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 78 degreesPrecipitation probability - 0%
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Tuesday night:  Some clouds.  Near normal temperatures.
Lows: around 52-55 degrees  |  Wind:  East winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.  Precipitation probability - 10%.
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Wednesday: Partly sunny.  A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms.  Above normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 73-78 degrees. |  Wind: Southeasterly winds at 5-10 mph.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.   Precipitation probability - 30%
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No changes.  Video's are being posted again (each morning - blog is evening and video is morning)
Link:  http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm 




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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 24 hours... 



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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
 
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Monday night:
  Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Tuesday night:
  Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Wednesday:   A small risk (less than 10% chance) for a severe thunderstorms.
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You can view the most up to date graphics - clicking here.
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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here


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All other states- Click Here
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The map you see below can be viewed by clicking on the watch and warnings map links above.  The maps are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States - again this map is a sample map.  To view the actual interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE:  Did we hit another one out of the ballpark on Monday?  Another nice day with temperatures in the 70s and 80s across our region.  Dew point readings were a bit higher today - could you tell?  A bit more moisture streaming in from the southeast and south.  This will continue to increase on Tuesday as a storm system approaches..
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A storm system will approach from the west on Tuesday night and Wednesday.  A cold front will move in and through the region on Wednesday night and Thursday morning.  This front will bring with it a chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Rainfall totals of 0.15-0.50" are expected across much of the region.

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Best chance of rain/storms for the Paducah area will be between 5 pm Wednesday night and 4 am Thursday morning.
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There will be some instability ahead of the system - this could spark a few heavy thunderstorms on Wednesday into Wednesday night.  Right now the Storm Prediction Center has not outlined a risk zone - but that could change.  I will monitor and update accordingly.  Either way this does not appear to be a widespread severe weather threat.
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Your general precipitation map through 2 pm on Tuesday.
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Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Thursday into the weekend.  A strong cold front will approach the region late next week and bring with it a shot for frost and even a freeze over parts of the Ohio Valley.  Too soon to say exactly how cold it will become in our local counties.  Will monitor, as always.
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Please take advantage of this nice weather while it lasts.  

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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.


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Beautiful weather will continue right on into Tuesday.  Be mindful of dry ground conditions (some counties have burn bans in effect).


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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. 
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The SECOND map shows you the 72 hour rainfall forecast - that will take us into the rain event on Wednesday and Thursday.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.
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I have added thunderstorm probabilities to the web-site - you can click hour by hour and see where the best chances for thunderstorms will exist.  Here is the link - you can also choose your own region by clicking on a state.


ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperatures and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in - LINK
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Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here






We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
 
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Drought continues across a large chunk of real estate.  This has been a concern for quite some time now.  Droughts tend to creep.  Many of you have witnessed the extreme fire conditions over portions of Texas and Oklahoma on the different news outlets.  I have been watching this drought slowly creep north and east over the last few months.  This will need to be monitored as we move into the fall and winter months.
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Here is the latest Palmer Drought Index map.  Severe drought continues over Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and parts of Arkansas.  The areas in green are moist regions - the areas in orange and yellow are in need of rain.  
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You can view these and more drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here


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You can learn more about the current drought by visiting this Climate Prediction Center website - click here.
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1.  After the rain chances end on Thursday then I will be watching a stronger cold front for next week.  We might experience another shot at temperatures down into the 30s.  Still quite a bit of time to monitor that front. 
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Check out the 500mb wind fields on Friday/Saturday - you can see the trough in the east (a trough brings us cooler temperatures) - the second map are the forecast lows for Saturday morning.
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Click on the maps for real view size
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The bright colors on the first map are the higher wind speeds (see the scale at the bottom).  Pink and purple are strong winds (at the 500 mb level - which is eighteen thousand feet above the surface of the earth).
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I will be watching the tropics over the next 3 weeks - I always look for some late season storms/hurricanes to switch the pattern up over the central and eastern United States.  If we see one or two strong storms/hurricanes then we will likely experience colder temperatures.
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You can see in the map below that sea surface temperatures are still quite warm and supportive of hurricanes.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here


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All other states- Click Here


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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

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