Your Hometown Weather: October 31, 2011: Rain likely again by Wednesday night/Thursday

October 31, 2011

.
For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.

Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join

.
This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer

This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Sunday night: Cloudy. Below normal temperatures.

Lows: in the 38-44 degree range. | Wind: South/southwest winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 44 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is very high

Monday: A few clouds early - then mostly sunny. Below normal temperatures.

Highs: around 58-64 degree range. | Wind: Westerly winds at 10-20 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 67 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is very high
.

Monday night: Mostly clear. Below normal temperatures.

Lows: around 39-44 degrees | Wind: West at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 44 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%.
My confidence in this forecast is very high

Tuesday: Mostly sunny - seasonable temperatures. Near normal temperatures.

Highs: around 64-68 degrees. | Wind: Southerly winds at 10-15 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 67 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is very high

.
.

No major concerns for the next 24 hours.
.

.
No major concerns for the next 24 hours.
.

Wild card in the forecast - none.

No major changes in the forecast.

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here
.

---

----
The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
.
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
.
Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
.
For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
.
Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.

Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

.
Tuesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No

Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
.

.
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
.
To view the interactive map - click here.

.
HEADLINE: A few clouds in the area this afternoon - these are associated with a storm system pushing off to our north and east.

Both Monday and Tuesday will bring quiet weather with seasonable temperatures - dominated mostly by high pressure. I do not have any major concerns on the weather front for the early part of the week.

As promised Halloween will be dry.

Speaking of dry - here is the latest Palmer Drought Index Map and the Percent of Soil Moisture Capacity Map - you can see that drought continues to our south and west. Also note the wet soil conditions over much of the northeast.

The next storm system will arrive on Wednesday night and Thursday - this is in response to a trough developing over the northern U.S. and the Rockies. Rain with some thunderstorms will develop to our west on Wednesday afternoon and push into our region late on Wednesday night and/or Thursday. I am expecting rainfall totals of 0.30-0.60".

Some questions remain as to how exactly the mid-week system evolves. Whether an area of low pressure develops over the Missouri Valley is still in question - if this were to develop then it would increase our chances for thunderstorms and would also create a better environment for organized rain. Will monitor and update in the coming days.

At this time I do not expect severe thunderstorms with the middle of the week system.

In the long range I continue to monitor for a potential system around November 6th-8th - fine tuning of this forecast will be necessary over the coming week. I see the most NWS Offices are now talking about the storm system next weekend - the Storm Prediction Center is also talking about the potential for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. Everyone agrees that it is still too soon to know how that storm unfolds. Stay tuned.

Obviously everyone reading this blog has heard about the historic early winter storm that struck the northeast - one of the earlier snowfall events on record for some cities. Many areas still had leaves on the trees - the heavy wet snow caused widespread power outages and tree damage. Here are a few photographs from one news web-site in Connecticut

We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
.

-----------------------------

Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
.

If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.

.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
.
You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
.
.
.

.
.
Snow is not in our local forecast.
.

.
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
.
Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
.
.

.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
.

.

We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
---
We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
.
.

---

Date Range: November 2nd (late at night) into the 3rd.
Event: Rain and possible thunderstorms
Severe Risk: Severe weather (hail to 1" or larger, winds of 58 mph or greater, and/or tornadoes) risk appears very small or non-existent.

Frozen Precipitation Risk: None
Details: Cold front and low pressure area to our west - moves east.
Impact: Rainfall totals of 0.20-0.50"
Confidence: Medium
.
.
Date Range: November 5th -November 7th
Event: Showers and thunderstorms
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a call on this part of the forecast. .

Frozen Precipitation Risk: None
Details: Deep low over the Midwest with strong cold front
Confidence: Medium

Date Range: November 9th-November 11th
Event: Showers and thunderstorms
Severe Risk: Too soon to know this information

Frozen Precipitation Risk: None
Details:
Confidence: Low

-----------------------------

1. The big story in the medium and long range continues to be two separate storm systems. One for the Wednesday/Thursday time frame and another around the 6th-8th time frame.

Right now it appears that an area of low pressure will form over Arkansas or Missouri on Wednesday or Wednesday night and bring a chance for rain and/or thunderstorms for our region. Rainfall totals of 0.30-0.60 will be possible with this system. Still several days away and I am sure I will need to tweak the forecast timing in future updates.

The next potential system arrives late in the period - perhaps around November 6th-8th. This is a system that I have been talking about since the 22nd or 23rd of October. Whether it verifies or not - still to be seen. Potential exists for rain and thunderstorms in our area - if the storm forms as I believe it will then there could be some severe thunderstorms in the central United States. Stay tuned for updates.

November is looking as if it will be a bit of a roller coaster in the temperature department - if we do end up with several deep storm systems then we would experience warm air moving up ahead of the storms and then cold air behind the systems. Analogs are showing a cold December.

Here is the latest 8-14 day outlook - note this is for November 7th through November 11th - this would be in front of the next big storm system - warmer temps - then I would expect below normal temperatures behind the system. So - this could be a bit overdone - more likely would be above normal temperatures around November 6th-8th and then below normal temperatures.

One trend I have noticed over the last few weeks is that the low pressure areas are deepening quicker and more intense than normal - this has been especially true as they move to the east of our region. Will this be a trend for winter? Something I am also watching.

Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
.

.
Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
.

To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here

All other states- Click Here

. For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
.
.
Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
.