October 18, 2011: Wet and raw conditions - windy - much cooler. Fall weather

October 18, 2011
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

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Monday night:  Showers moving in after midnight - a few rumbles of thunder possible.  Below normal temperatures.

Lows:  in the 46-50 degree range.  |  Wind:  North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph.  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 53 degrees.  Precipitation probability - 70%

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Tuesday:   Cloudy - raw - showers likely - turning cooler.  Temperatures falling in the afternoon hours.  Below normal temperatures.

Highs:  around 54 degrees early - then falling during the afternoon.  |  Wind:  Northerly winds at 10-15 mph - turning more westerly.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 76 degrees.  Precipitation probability - 90%.  Total rainfall of 0.40-1.00" across the region.
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Tuesday night:  Cloudy - cooler - A few light showers possible.  Below normal temperatures.

Lows: around 38-44 degrees  |  Wind:  Northwest winds at 10-15 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 53 degrees.  Precipitation probability - 20%.

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Wednesday: Some sun possible early - then becoming cloudy - fallish - some sprinkles possible in the afternoon - temperatures may fall late in the day.  Below normal temperatures.

Highs:  around 50-54 degrees then falling into the 40s late in the day. |  Wind: North/northwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 76 degrees.   Precipitation probability - 20%
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Wednesday and Thursday will be windy - winds could gust over 30 mph during that time period.
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Wild card in the forecast will be a chance for some sprinkles on Wednesday or light showers. 

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Rain should last longer on Tuesday than earlier expected.  Otherwise no significant changes in the forecast. 

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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 24 hours... 

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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here

 

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Monday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.

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Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.

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Tuesday night:   Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.

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Wednesday:   Severe weather is not anticipated.   No snow or ice.

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You can view the most up to date graphics - clicking here.

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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here

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All other states- Click Here

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The map you see below can be viewed by clicking on the watch and warnings map links above.  The maps are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States - again this map is a sample map.  To view the actual interactive map - click here.

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HEADLINE:  A significant fall storm system is taking shape over the eastern half of the United States.  An area of low pressure will move across portions of the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday - this will combine with additional energy pushing in from the north and the south and will merge into a major fall storm that will track up into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
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The sensible weather for our region will be rain late tonight and into Tuesday - then falling temperatures and breezy conditions on Wednesday and Thursday.  Rainfall totals of 0.40-1.00" are likely to occur over most of our counties.  Frost will likely occur on Friday morning.  I will have to monitor wind conditions to determine the best timing of the frost.
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Speaking of winds - a deep low pressure area that will eventually move into the Great Lakes will cause winds in our region to be quite gusty on both Wednesday and Thursday - would not be surprised to see some gusts over 30 mph - mostly from the west/northwest in direction.  
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Let's check out what the deep area of low pressure looks like on the NAM (remember the NAM is a computer model that forecasters use as a tool to help them forecast the weather).  This is showing you a deep area of low pressure with tight isobars (equal lines of pressure).  These isobars - when tightly packed together - give you an idea of where it will be windy.  
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These forecast maps are for Wednesday night and Thursday morning.  Maps are from www.wright-weather.com
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CLICK images for real size viewing
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And here is the 500 mb map - showing very strong winds at 18000 feet above the surface.  This is one impressive trough!.
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I don't see any significant severe weather outbreaks in the near term for our area - that is the good news.  We normally do experience a few events in the late October into November time frame.
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Don't forget you can sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email - to sign up click this link.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.

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Rain and wind will interfere with camping over the next 24 hours.  Most of the rain will fall after midnight tonight and continue into Tuesday afternoon.  Wind will become a concern on both Wednesday and Thursday - gusts over 30 mph will likely occur.  Not the best camping weather.

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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.

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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.

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I have added thunderstorm probabilities to the web-site - you can click hour by hour and see where the best chances for thunderstorms will exist.  Here is the link - you can also choose your own region by clicking on a state.

ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here. 

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You can view the upcoming days high temperatures and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in - LINK

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Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here

We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU

 
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Drought continues across a large chunk of real estate.  This has been a concern for quite some time now.  Droughts tend to creep.  Many of you have witnessed the extreme fire conditions over portions of Texas and Oklahoma on the different news outlets.  I have been watching this drought slowly creep north and east over the last few months.  This will need to be monitored as we move into the fall and winter months.
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Here is the latest Palmer Drought Index map.  The areas in green are moist regions - the areas in orange and yellow are in need of rain.  

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The latest six to ten day outlook appears quite dry - not good news.  We will have rain on Monday night and Tuesday morning - then most likely below normal precipitation.  Note that this graphic is for October 20th through October 24th.

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You can view these and more drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here

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You can learn more about the current drought by visiting this Climate Prediction Center website - click here.
 

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1.  The much anticipated cooler weather is knocking at the door - the rest of the week will feel like fall.  Some frost will be possible on Friday morning - a bit unsure about Saturday.  Either way chilly conditions will prevail.

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Let's take a look at the temperature DEPARTURE maps - remember these maps show you how much above or below normal the temperatures will be.  You certainly get the idea from these maps - MUCH below normal weather will move into the region behind the deep area of low pressure that will form off to our east over the coming days.

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This first map is for Tuesday - much cooler weather with well below normal temperatures.

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Then this map is for Wednesday - even cooler air will bring much below normal temperatures again to the region.  Remember that normal highs are typically in the middle 70s during this time of the year.

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And to show you the extent of the cool weather - check out the national departure map for Wednesday.

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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.

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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here

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All other states- Click Here

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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php