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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Also don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here.
Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Sunday night: Mostly clear and cool. Near normal temperatures.
Lows: in the 49-53 degree range. | Wind: Southwest at 5 mph Normal lows for this time of the year are around 53 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0% .
Monday: A mix of sun and clouds. Not as warm. Near normal temperatures.
Highs: in the 70-74 degree range. | Wind: Northerly winds at 10 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 76 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%..
Monday night: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely late. A few heavy downpours possible. Severe weather is not anticipated. Below normal temperatures.
Lows: around 45-48 degrees | Wind: Northeast winds at 10-15 mph and gusty at times. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 53 degrees. Precipitation probability - 80%.
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Tuesday: Showers and a few rumbles of thunder likely the first half of the day - then cloudy with a few showers. Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 53-57 degrees. | Wind: Northerly winds at 5-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph - decreasing during the late afternoon hours. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 76 degrees. Precipitation probability - 80% early then a 20% during the afternoon..
Wednesday will be windy
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Wild card in the forecast will be how much rains falls in the region Monday night and Tuesday. Rainfall totals of 0.40-1.00" - locally heavy amounts possible. The exact track of the low will determine where the heaviest rain falls.
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Tweaked rainfall totals for the next event. Also beyond the short term forecast it appears Wednesday will be quite windy - much cooler (fall weather).
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 24 hours...
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
.Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. A few rumbles of thunder possible.
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Early morning thunder possible.
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You can view the most up to date graphics - clicking here.
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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The map you see below can be viewed by clicking on the watch and warnings map links above. The maps are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States - again this map is a sample map. To view the actual interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: What can you say about the weather today? Another stunning day across the region with temperatures into the 80s (is this October?) and some gusty winds at times.
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You have to know that all of this nice weather was just too good to last - right? The answer would be yes. Changes are already appearing on the weather maps.
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A storm system will develop over the Missouri/Tennessee/Ohio Valleys on Monday afternoon and Monday night. This system will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the region - widespread rain is likely. Right now I am thinking that rainfall totals will be in the 0.40-1.00 range. A bit of a wide range with rainfall totals - part of that is dependent on the exact track of the area of low pressure - similar to what we see in the winter months.
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Following the Monday night and Tuesday rainfall will be much cooler temperatures for the middle of the week. Frost will once again be possible in most of our counties by Wednesday and Thursday morning. I expect to see at least middle to upper 30s for southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and into Kentucky.
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Wednesday will be windy - winds will gust above 20 mph area wide.
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I don't see any significant severe weather outbreaks in the near term for our area - that is the good news. We normally do experience a few events in the late October into November time frame.
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Don't forget you can sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email - to sign up click this link.
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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I am afraid the streak of nice camping days will be coming to an end. Rain is likely in the region on Monday night and Tuesday - followed by cooler weather for the middle of the week. Wednesday will bring gusty winds, as well.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.
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I have added thunderstorm probabilities to the web-site - you can click hour by hour and see where the best chances for thunderstorms will exist. Here is the link - you can also choose your own region by clicking on a state.
ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperatures and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in - LINK
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Drought continues across a large chunk of real estate. This has been a concern for quite some time now. Droughts tend to creep. Many of you have witnessed the extreme fire conditions over portions of Texas and Oklahoma on the different news outlets. I have been watching this drought slowly creep north and east over the last few months. This will need to be monitored as we move into the fall and winter months.
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Here is the latest Soil Moisture Capacity map. The areas in green are moist regions - the areas in orange and yellow are in need of rain. We could use some rain.
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The latest six to ten day outlook appears quite dry - not good news. We will have rain on Monday night and Tuesday morning - then most likely below normal precipitation. Note that this graphic is for October 20th through October 24th.
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You can view these and more drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
1. Cooler weather for the middle of the week. I hate to use the word cold unless it is below 32 degrees - either way there will be a dramatic cool down compared to what we are experiencing today. Get the jackets out for the kids.
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Here is the map showing the forecast lows for Wednesday morning - 30s will cover our region. But hey - it issssss the middle of October - let's not forget that. Cooler weather is a certain this time of the year.
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Also of note - remember how I was talking about the potential for some tropical weather in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. I am still watching the disturbance moving northward - the storm system moving over our region on Monday night and Tuesday is forecast to combine with the tropical system and create quite the storm for the east coast and event parts of the Ohio Valley later in the week. This would spell windy conditions for our region. Cooler weather, as well - behind the area of low pressure.
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Here is what the NAM (one model that forecasters use to forecast the weather) is showing for Wednesday.
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Note the tightly wound isobars around the area of low pressure - the pink and blue area represents precipitation/rainfall. Impressive fall storm. This image is from www.wright-weather.com
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There are differing opinions on how this storm evolves.
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Click image for real view size
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I ran all of the different models on the potential system - right now it does not have a name (as of this writing time) - but it could develop further in the coming days. Something worth monitoring for those to our east and southeast.
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Finally - we are heading into another La Nina winter. What does that mean for all of us? Well - that depends on who you ask. As you know from recent newspaper articles - it is my opinion that odds favor another cold winter. Well, isn't it always cold in the winter? Yes :) - I suppose normally it is. But by another cold winter I mean a winter that brings below normal temperatures. Last year was what I would call a cold winter. We have been in this cycle for quite some time. Hard to buck the trend. We have been in a pattern of extremes for quite some time, as well. I see little reason to argue that that won't continue.
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The pattern favors deeper than usual storm systems this winter. That could mean quite a bit of weather for our region. Will it snow at your house - ice at your house - or other? Well - those sort of details can't be defined this far out. I suspect it will not be a boring winter or spring.
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I caution everyone, though, that like last winter we may see a lot of extreme swings - meaning we will once again find ourselves close to the boundary of the battle of air masses. There were times last winter when we did experience above normal temperatures followed by sharp cold snaps.
. You can view these and more drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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You can learn more about the current drought by visiting this Climate Prediction Center website - click here.---
1. Cooler weather for the middle of the week. I hate to use the word cold unless it is below 32 degrees - either way there will be a dramatic cool down compared to what we are experiencing today. Get the jackets out for the kids.
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Here is the map showing the forecast lows for Wednesday morning - 30s will cover our region. But hey - it issssss the middle of October - let's not forget that. Cooler weather is a certain this time of the year.
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Also of note - remember how I was talking about the potential for some tropical weather in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. I am still watching the disturbance moving northward - the storm system moving over our region on Monday night and Tuesday is forecast to combine with the tropical system and create quite the storm for the east coast and event parts of the Ohio Valley later in the week. This would spell windy conditions for our region. Cooler weather, as well - behind the area of low pressure.
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Here is what the NAM (one model that forecasters use to forecast the weather) is showing for Wednesday.
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Note the tightly wound isobars around the area of low pressure - the pink and blue area represents precipitation/rainfall. Impressive fall storm. This image is from www.wright-weather.com
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There are differing opinions on how this storm evolves.
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Click image for real view size
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I ran all of the different models on the potential system - right now it does not have a name (as of this writing time) - but it could develop further in the coming days. Something worth monitoring for those to our east and southeast.
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Finally - we are heading into another La Nina winter. What does that mean for all of us? Well - that depends on who you ask. As you know from recent newspaper articles - it is my opinion that odds favor another cold winter. Well, isn't it always cold in the winter? Yes :) - I suppose normally it is. But by another cold winter I mean a winter that brings below normal temperatures. Last year was what I would call a cold winter. We have been in this cycle for quite some time. Hard to buck the trend. We have been in a pattern of extremes for quite some time, as well. I see little reason to argue that that won't continue.
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The pattern favors deeper than usual storm systems this winter. That could mean quite a bit of weather for our region. Will it snow at your house - ice at your house - or other? Well - those sort of details can't be defined this far out. I suspect it will not be a boring winter or spring.
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I caution everyone, though, that like last winter we may see a lot of extreme swings - meaning we will once again find ourselves close to the boundary of the battle of air masses. There were times last winter when we did experience above normal temperatures followed by sharp cold snaps.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-sitehttp://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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