Your Hometown Weather: October 25, 2011: Rain middle of the week

October 25, 2011

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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Monday night: Mostly clear. Near normal temperatures.

Lows: in the 44-48 degree range. | Wind: Easterly winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 46 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is VERY high

Tuesday: A few clouds during the afternoon hours - windy at times - mild/warm. Above normal temperatures.

Highs: around 75-80 degree range. | Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph - gusty at times. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 70 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%.
My confidence in this forecast is VERY high
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Tuesday night: Increasing clouds. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm over the northern half of the region late (north of Cape Girardeau to north of Carbondale - Mt Vernon area). Above normal temperatures.

Lows: around 55-60 degrees | Wind: South/southwest winds at 5-15 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 46 degrees. Precipitation probability - 30%.
My confidence in this forecast is VERY high

Wednesday: Cloudy - rain developing - more likely as the day wears on. A few heavy downpours possible. Chance for a thunderstorm. Above normal temperatures.

Highs: around 72-76 degrees (cooler far northern counties). | Wind: Southerly winds at 5-15 mph - gusts to 20 mph - winds turning more north/northwest late in the afternoon. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 70 degrees. Precipitation probability - 70%
My confidence in this forecast is VERY high
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No big concerns for the next 24 hours.
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No - nothing to worry about for the next 24 hours.
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Wild card in the forecast will be how fast rain moves in on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning over the northern half of the region. Other wild card in the forecast is whether the rain lingers later into Thursday night or Friday morning. For now we will go with the rain ending on Thursday.

No big changes in the forecast - tweaked wind conditions on Tuesday.

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday Night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? NO
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? NO

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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? YES - a few thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday night over the northern half of the region.

Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? YES - A few thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday/Wednesday night.
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.

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HEADLINE: Warm :) - if you think it is a bit warm outside for late October then you would be right. Tuesday will bring even warmer conditions ahead of our next storm system.

A frontal boundary will push into the area on Tuesday night and Wednesday. This front will help lift the air and produce showers and a few thunderstorms. The rain will first arrive over the northern half of the region on Tuesday night. Radars should show showers and a few thunderstorms forming along a line from Poplar Bluff to Evansville northward - the further north and northwest you go then the better chance for precipitation.

Rain will then overspread the rest of the region late on Wednesday and Wednesday evening. The best chance for locally heavy downpours will be late on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. I still think we see widespread 0.30-0.60" of rain over our counties. Locally heavy amounts are possible. Data indicates a band of heavier rain right along and behind the cold front.

As far as the risk for severe weather - instability is lacking. Wind fields are decent. The stronger the wind shear the better chance for organized storms. Without instability, however, severe weather concerns will be small. I will monitor and update. I noticed the Paducah, Kentucky National Weather Service has mentioned the small potential for a stronger storm. The Storm Prediction Center has NOT outlined a risk area - they did, however, mention the small chance for an isolated severe thunderstorm. Main concern would be hail and gusty winds. Again - will monitor and update if the situation changes.

We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.

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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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Snow is not in the forecast.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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1. Next weekend should be dry and cool. The next couple of weeks should bring mostly below normal temperatures and perhaps below normal precipitation. Several Canadian High Pressure systems are forecast to move into the eastern half of the United States. These high pressure systems are normally associated with cool weather (cold weather in the winter months).

Right now I am forecasting a dry Halloween - cool conditions.

The next storm of significant may arrive around the November 3-7th time frame - watching a couple of systems during that time frame. Will have to monitor for thunderstorms, as well. Long way off.

Let's take a look at the month to date temperature and precipitation (percent of normal) averages - we have been mostly below normal in the temperature department and below normal in the precipitation department. Again these maps are for October 1st through October 24th - averages.

Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here

All other states- Click Here

. For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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