Your Hometown Weather: October 29, 2011: Snowstorm in the east

October 29, 2011

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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Friday night: Mostly clear with frost possible. Below normal temperatures.

Lows: in the 30-36 degree range. | Wind: Northwest winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 44 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is very high

Saturday: Partly cloudy. Below normal temperatures.

Highs: around 58-64 degree range. | Wind: Westerly winds at 10-20 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 67 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday night: Mostly clear - frost possible. Below normal temperatures.

Lows: around 32-38 degrees | Wind: Winds becoming southerly at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 44 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%.
My confidence in this forecast is very high

Sunday: A few clouds - windy at times. Below normal temperatures.

Highs: around 60-66 degrees. | Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph with higher gusts in the afternoon. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 67 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is very high

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No major concerns.
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No major concerns.
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Wild card in this forecast will be whether frost forms tonight and Sunday morning.

Tweaked winds a bit for Saturday and mentioned windy conditions on Sunday. No big changes.

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

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Sunday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No

Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here

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To view the interactive map - click here.

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HEADLINE: I am blogging the forecast from Mackinac Island, Michigan. It is cool up here with temperatures this morning in the 30s. Not too much cooler than back home. I did see some snowflakes on Thursday on the way up to the island. Big wet flakes. Didn't last long - it was a reminder that winter is closing in on us.
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Our region will enjoy a dry and cool weekend - temperatures will be mostly below normal. Frost can't be ruled out on Saturday and Sunday morning - lows will dip down into the upper 20s to middle 30s across the region. The normal "colder" spots will see some 20s.

Winds will pick up a bit on Saturday and will become strong on Sunday. Would not be surprised to see some gusts over 30 mph on Sunday as a storm system passes to our north.

You may have heard on the national news that a snowstorm will impact portions of the east coast this weekend. It appears the first significant snow will fall across portions of the northeast and New England. As much as 6-10" for some areas - locally heavier. This is going to cause quite a bit of damage to trees that still have their foliage on them.

Models continue to show a rather active pattern as we push into November. I believe our region will have to be alert for a couple of severe weather events in the coming weeks. NOW is a great time to buy a NOAA Weather Radio. Better to be prepared before the storm than be wanting during the storm.

Halloween should be dry.

We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.

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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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Snow is not in the forecast.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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1. I am watching a cold front for Wednesday and Thursday morning - data is mixed on this event. Some of the latest data indicates an area of low pressure forming along the front - if this is the case then there might be a bit more moisture to work with. Bottom line - there could be some clouds and rain/storms on Wednesday or Wednesday night/Thursday. Confidence right now is low. The European model data has the Wed/Thu storm as deeper and more significant. Will monitor.

Beyond that time frame - I have been talking about a potential larger system sometime during and after the 4th-7th. Signals for some severe weather are on the charts. Still a long way off - but something I am watching. Confidence is still low on this system, as well.

This is the GFS run from the www.wright-weather.com web-site. Click image for real view size.

November is looking as if it will be a bit of a roller coaster in the temperature department - if we do end up with several deep storm systems then we would experience warm air moving up ahead of the storms and then cold air behind the systems. Analogs are showing a cold December.

One trend I have noticed over the last few weeks is that the low pressure areas are deepening quicker and more intense than normal - this has been especially true as they move to the east of our region. Will this be a trend for winter? Something I am also watching.

Here is the latest 8-14 day temperature outlook (note the dates at the top of the map). This map is for Sunday - November 6th through Thursday the 10th. This is an indicator of the potential for stormy weather, as well - warmer than normal air being drawn northward.

Check out the snow forecast for the northeast United States - this map may be a bit overdone in some areas - but you get the general idea that it is going to snow. A major storm is going to wind up off the coastline and throw back moisture into the cold air. Winter storm watches and warnings have been issued for a large section of the northeast.

For all of you snow lovers in the group - we can just watch with envy. Our turn will come.

Click image for real view size

Here is the probability (chances) of 4" or more of snow falling - the second map shows you the winter storm watches - remember you can view these maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - here

For the most up to date watches and warnings - click here

Here is what that storm looks like on the NAM surface map (remember the NAM is a model that forecasts what it believes the map will look like at a certain time) - you can see the deep area of low pressure off the east coast - the pink and bright colors are precipitation. Click image for real view size

Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here

All other states- Click Here

. For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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