A high wind advisory has been issued for the entire area on Sunday. Winds will be gusting from 30-45 mph. Boaters should use caution.
Saturday, April 2, 2011
Windy Sunday!
Some chance for a few severe storms on Sunday night into Monday. Tough call on how widespread the event will be in our local region - areas to our east and southeast may stand the best change at severe storms.
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As of this writing, 10 pm on Friday night, there were still a few scattered showers over our region. Most of these have been over the IL/KY part of the forecast area. These are moving off to the southeast and should clear the region by Saturday morning. Not a big deal.
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I have promised you for the past week that Saturday and Sunday would be warmer - and so it will! Expect sixties on Saturday and seventies on Sunday! I would not be shocked to see some eighties over parts of far southwest Tennessee on Sunday afternoon. Let's see how much sunshine there is - either way - quite warm!
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Gusty winds will arrive with the warmer air - especially on Sunday. Expect southerly winds of 20-40 mph with gusts in open areas and hills/lakes of over 40 mph. A wind advisory may need to be issued for Sunday. Either way - windy will be the rule on Sunday.
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As the warm front moves through the area on Saturday night and Sunday morning there could be a couple of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. This is most likely over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. If they do form then they would be widely scattered. Confidence, at this time, is low in them forming at all. Gusty winds will arrive with the warmer air - especially on Sunday. Expect southerly winds of 20-40 mph with gusts in open areas and hills/lakes of over 40 mph. A wind advisory may need to be issued for Sunday. Either way - windy will be the rule on Sunday.
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--- Questions remain as to how much severe weather will occur in our local counties on Monday - my confidence is higher for severe storms in areas just to our east - this will need to continue to be monitored in the coming days. Some severe weather is possible or even likely in and near our region on Monday.
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For over a week we have been discussing a potential severe weather events for Sunday night into Monday night. I told you we would have to fine tune the forecast as more data arrives. As of Friday night there are still a lot of questions on how this event will unfold.
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Right now it appears that showers and thunderstorms will form on Monday morning over our region and eventually turn into a large squall line that will push across the Ohio Valley all the way down to the Gulf Coast of Mexico. I would not be surprised to see a near solid line on radar by Monday afternoon from Ohio down to Mississippi and Alabama. ---
There will be a strong CAP on Monday - a CAP basically squashes rising air. Storms can't form in this environment without strong forcing. That strong forcing will eventually arrive on Monday in the form of a cold front. Cooler air aloft will also help eventually break the CAP on Monday. Exactly what time this occurs is still in question, as well.
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The longer it takes the break the CAP then normally the more energy is available. Think of shaking up a coke and then opening it - you can have explosive development of storms when you have a strong CAP - under the right conditions.
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However, if the CAP holds strong then it raises questions as to just how far east all of this will form. Bottom line - still a ton of details to work out on this coming event. I am 100% confident that severe thunderstorms and some tornadoes will occur on Monday over parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley down into MS/AL. Fine tuning will be needed to pinpoint just what areas will be impacted.
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The timing of the front for our region will be critical in determining what type of weather we have and the extent of the severe weather threat. It is possible that the most severe weather will be just to our east and southeast on Monday afternoon. However, this will need to be closely monitored.
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I believe the Storm Prediction Center will outline a large slight and moderate risk zone from the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley on Monday and Monday afternoon. I suspect the highest probabilities will extend from central Kentucky down into Tennessee and parts of northern Mississippi and Alabama.
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I would encourage everyone to stay abreast of the latest information on weather conditions from late Sunday night through Monday evening. Right now I suspect our greatest severe weather threat will be from 8 am on Monday through 5 pm on Monday (for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky). Further east you go the later the threat will last - well into Monday night for areas to our east.
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I suspect the highest probabilities for severe weather will be just near our region and then eastward - southeastward. Will need to monitor this part of the forecast in the coming days.
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Rainfall totals on Monday into Monday evening will likely be in the 1-2" range over our local counties.
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Stay tuned
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Bottom Line It For Me Beau - for far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky
Bottom Line It For Me Beau - for far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky
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Saturday: Sunny and warm. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: middle 60s | Wind: West winds at 10-15 mph. ---
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Saturday night: Partly cloudy.
Lows: middle 40s | Wind: Southwest winds at 10 mph
Lows: middle 40s | Wind: Southwest winds at 10 mph
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Sunday: Windy. A mix of sun and clouds. A chance for a thunderstorm early in the day. Warm with above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 75 degrees | Wind: South winds at 15-30 mph with gusts over 40 mph. ---
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Sunday night: Partly cloudy. A slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm late at night. Mild with above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 64 degrees | Wind: South .southwest winds at 15-25 mph with gusts over 30 mph.---
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Monday: Showers and thunderstorms developing. Some storms will be severe in and near our region. Locally heavy rain possible. Warm and windy with above normal temperatures.
Highs: middle 70s | Wind: Winds becoming south at 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph - much higher gusts in thunderstorms.---
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You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson
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Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site (simply click on the day of the week for the latest video).
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: No severe weather is forecast in our area.
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The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the following area for Monday - they are concerned, as well, about a potential severe thunderstorm event over our region. This forecast will be fine tuned in the coming days.The area outlined in orange is the risk zone they have painted for Monday (note the date stamp at the top of the image is incorrect and should read Monday through Tuesday 8 am)
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Let's take a look at rainfall amounts from the Monday system - locally heavy rain is likely over our area and areas to our east. Some flash flooding is not out of the question over parts of KY/TN if the storms train over the same counties. Especially areas to our east. Again - something to monitor.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site - please check them out! We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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Looking aheadWatching another system towards the end of next week.
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I fear the middle to end of April is going to bring a series of major tornado outbreaks and this may continue into May. We are looking at an extremely active and dangerous weather pattern shaping up. The coming weeks may bring some historic weather. Stay tuned.Meteorologist Beau Dodson McCracken County Office of Emergency Management ---
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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