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LIVE SEVERE WEATHER THREAD
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
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3:30 PMStorms will explode in the next 30 minutes to one hour over Missouri.
- Beau
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
130 PM Update...
Remember that it is absolutely impossible to know what counties or what towns/cities will experience severe weather. Not everybody will experience severe weather. Severe weather by nature is scattered. Just know that there is a threat for high winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes later today and tonight. Listen to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of information for the latest watches and warnings.
I have radar up and running - severe storms will form later today with hail, damaging winds, heavy rain, lightning, and some tornadoes possible.
Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
An outbreak of thunderstorms will occur later this afternoon and continue into the overnight hours. The timing has been moved up a little bit.
A tornado watch has just been issued for portions of Missouri and Illinois. You can view the watch outline here.
Here is a graphic showing the first tornado watch of the day. Remember a tornado watch means that conditions favor severe storms and tornadoes.
Remember this is the first of many tornado watches - we will all be under a watch later today and tonight.
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Now let's take a look at the surface low pressure (the circle contours). You can see the low back in southwest Missouri. The numbers on the map indicate temperatures. You can see that we are quite warm. The shaded colors are dew points. Dew points are into the sixties. PLENTY of moisture to fuel the storms.
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Now let's take a look at CAPE values. Remember CAPE is energy - the higher the CAPE values the more energy. These are some amazing numbers in the 2000-4000 range. Extremely unstable atmosphere this afternoon. The scale is on the left side of the image.
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Now let's take a look at the Storm Prediction Center's moderate risk zone for severe weather today. That would be the area in red. This covers just about all of our local region. Remember a moderate risk means that severe thunderstorms are likely to occur. The yellow/orange area is the slight risk zone. Green is general thunderstorms.
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Next take a look at the graphic below - this is the tornado risk zone. You can see the area in yellow/orange is considered to have a better risk of tornadoes. The brownish area is the greatest risk zone for tornadoes. This covers many of our counties. Stay alert to weather conditions this afternoon and tonight. Things could get rough in some of our counties with very high winds and some tornadoes.
Now let's take a look at one of the high resolution models that I use to forecast thunderstorm development. I am going to take you through a time sequence view of what radar is FORECAST to look like later today. Remember this is a radar FORECAST - in other words - this is what the model data believes the radar will look like at that particular time. This is concerning.
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Click each of these images to bring up the full view and original size (better resolution). The first image is for the 3-5 pm time frame. See time stamp above each image that I post. You can see on this first image that thunderstorms are already moving into parts of eastern Missouri and southern Illinois during that time frame. Some of them will be severe.
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This next image is for the 5-7 pm time frame. Severe thunderstorms in red and yellow.
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This next image is for the 7-9 pm time frame - you can see severe thunderstorms weeping through our area. Keep in mind that this is a forecast radar image. The time could be off a bit. But you get the general idea.
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This next image is for the 8-10 pm time frame. Severe storms continue to move east across the area with large hail, damaging winds, and some tornado threat.
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And finally this is the 10 pm through 1 am time frame. Storms moving east.
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Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio - Facebook - Twitter - and Local Media for the latest watches and warnings on this event as it unfolds.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
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We will be in severe weather mode today....
Severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will likely strike the region later this afternoon and especially tonight into the early AM hours of Wednesday morning. Tornado watches will be issued later this afternoon and tonight for our local counties. Remember a tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. A warning means that severe weather is being reported or is about to occur. .
You can listen to the spotter networks by going to this link - Streaming Emergency Management and Storm Spotters for some of our local counties.
Jason Darnall and I will have all of the radars up and running today - click here.
I will update the blog several times on Tuesday. I will also update the Facebook page frequently..
Remember to report severe weather and tornadoes to local law enforcement or the National Weather Service. Don't assume that someone else has reported it. Severe weather is defined as winds greater than 58 mph - hail the size of quarters or greater - flash flooding - tornadoes - and any damage. .
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings..
The video will be updated early Tuesday morning (prob between 8-9 am) - just click the Monday-Tuesday Hazardous Weather Update link...
Video can be viewed here
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Also our new forecast page is finished! Just click the link below to see all of our Weather Observatory graphics - from the severe weather outlook to lake and river stages - extended outlooks - monthly outlooks - satellite - and more!.
Weather Observatory Graphics and Forecast Page
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This site is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer.
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A few early morning thunderstorms will give way to a mostly dry late morning and afternoon. Thunderstorms will explode to our west later this afternoon and continue into Wednesday morning.
There will be a chance of some supercell thunderstorms forming event further east - from far southeast MO into southern IL and western KY - after 3 pm.
All modes of severe weather will occur in our region - including damaging winds, large hail, and even a few tornadoes. Locally heavy rain is likely along with frequent lightning.
There will be a chance of some supercell thunderstorms forming event further east - from far southeast MO into southern IL and western KY - after 3 pm.
All modes of severe weather will occur in our region - including damaging winds, large hail, and even a few tornadoes. Locally heavy rain is likely along with frequent lightning.
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Rivers continue to rise. Click here for lake and river stages.
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A line of severe thunderstorms will develop on Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of Illinois and Missouri. These storms will extend into Arkansas. The line of storms will quickly become severe. Severe thunderstorm and tornado watches will be issued for our area later today and tonight (Tuesday). Severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings will also likely be issued for some of our counties. .
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches will likely occur in most of our counties. Can't rule out some locally heavier amounts of storms train over the same counties.
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It will also be quite windy today with gusts over 30 mph on area lakes and rivers (open areas).
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Stay tuned for updates and keep your NOAA Weather Radio on.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky---
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Breezy - warm. A few morning storms giving way to dry conditions. Thunderstorms will redevelop late this afternoon and evening. Some storms may be severe..
Highs: in the middle 80s | Wind: winds from the south at 15-20 mph - gusts to 35 mph. ---
Tuesday night: Severe thunderstorms likely. Windy and mild. Locally heavy rain.
Lows: around 60 degrees | Wind: south becoming southwest winds at 10-25 mph with gusts above 30 - higher in severe thunderstorms. ---
Wednesday: Early AM severe thunderstorms will give way to cloudy conditions - cooler - a few showers may linger into the day.
Highs: in the middle to upper 60s | Wind: west winds at 10-20 mph. Gusty at times. ---
Wednesday night: Clearing. Cooler.
Lows: around 47 degrees | Wind: northwest winds at 10 mph. ---
Thursday: A chance for a thunderstorm. Otherwise partly sunny.
Highs: around 67 degrees | Wind: south winds at 10-15 mph - gusty at times.
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Video will be posted early on Tuesday morning. (simply click on the day of the week for the latest video).
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow...
Today (Tuesday) A few early morning storms could produce hail - especially over our northern counties. Isolated severe possible in our region before 9 am. Severe thunderstorms likely late this afternoon and even more likely tonight. Large hail, damaging winds, heavy rain, lightning, and some tornadoes will be possible. A squall line will race across the area tonight.
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Tonight (Tuesday night) Severe thunderstorms with large hail , damaging winds, heavy rain, lightning, and a few tornadoes. Tornado watches likely for most of our area tonight. Keep the NOAA Weather Radios on for the most up to date information.
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Wednesday: Severe thunderstorms will be ongoing after midnight but should clear our counties early Wednesday morning (before 8 am). Some lingering showers will be possible - early. .
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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Some graphics of how this event will likely unfold - let's take a look at the future-cast radar from one of our high resolution models. Graphics from www.wright-weather.com
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Please click the image for full resolution viewing.
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This first image is for the 8 pm time frame. You can see storms forming in a line from Illinois down into Missouri. These will quickly become severe. Any supercells (lone thunderstorms) that form ahead of the line could produce tornadoes.
KEEP IN MIND THAT SOME STORMS COULD FORM WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE - FURTHER INTO OUR REGION BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM.
Some tornadoes could be strong. Tornadoes could also be embedded in the squall line itself - this is rather common for our region.
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This next image is for the 10-11 pm time frame. You can see the line of severe thunderstorms moving east into our area. Some supercells are noted ahead of the line. I am quite concerned about the Poplar Bluff to St Louis to Mt Vernon to Paducah corridor. However, with that said - the entire area has the potential for damaging storms.
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This next image is for the 12 am through 2 am time frame - you can see the squall line continues to move across the region. It concerns me that this model is picking up on bow echoes. Bow echoes can cause extremely high winds. Something to monitor tomorrow night. I would not be surprised to see some reports of 70+ mph winds from some of these storms. I would also not be surprised to hear of hail as large as golf balls or larger in some counties.
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The next image is for the 3-5 am time frame. Keep in mind that this could be a couple of hours off. This will need to be monitored. But you get the general idea.
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1. On and off shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into next Sunday. Right now I am thinking we may see another risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday night into Friday night. Obviously this is still several days away and I will need to fine tune the forecast.Unfortunately it appears the next 2 weeks will be active with multiple chances for severe thunderstorms - some of the storms will likely produce heavy rain.
I will update the blog frequently over the coming days. Stay tuned and keep the NOAA Weather Radios on.
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You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson.
You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson---
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois- Click Here.
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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Other States- Click Here
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