1 PM Update
No changes in my thoughts.
A few storms possible this afternoon but much more likely tonight. Large hail is possible - especially over southern IL and southeast MO. A few warnings may be needed.
The big event arrives Tuesday night - widespread severe thunderstorm activity is likely. Mainly a squall line with a few tornadoes possible. Especially true if supercells form ahead of the line.
Please stay tuned for updates...
- Beau
Monday, April 18, 2011
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I will update the blog several times on Monday into Tuesday night. I will also update the Facebook page frequently. .
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings..
Video has just been updated - click the Monday-Tuesday Hazardous Weather Outlook link
Video can be viewed here
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Have you joined the email list? I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of severe weather. Basically this is a "heads up" email. If you would like to subscribe then click here..
Also our new forecast page is finished! Just click the link below to see all of our Weather Observatory graphics - from the severe weather outlook to lake and river stages - extended outlooks - monthly outlooks - satellite - and more!.
Weather Observatory Graphics and Forecast Page
River stages - check out the major flooding across the northern Plains (you can click down to our local area) - rivers will be rising over the coming 10 day period in our region, as well. Especially with multiple rounds of rain and storms. With each passing event - flooding will become a bigger concern.
http://weather.weatherobservatory.com/rivers/us.html
This site is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer.
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A few thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight (Monday/Monday night). If storms do form then they could produce small hail - a slight chance for severe storms.
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A bigger severe weather risk will arrive on Tuesday (see below).
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Rivers continue to rise. Click here for lake and river stages.
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We are preparing for an active 10 day period of weather. There will be multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain will be heavy at times. Severe thunderstorms will also be a concern - especially on Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning and again on Thursday night into Friday night. Best advice - stay tuned for updates. .
A few thunderstorms will be possible on Monday afternoon and Monday night. These storms will be north of the warm front that will be passing through the area. Normally storms north of the warm front do not produce widespread severe weather. However, storms north of a warm front can produce gusty winds and hail. We will need to monitor radar for a few hailers later today (Monday afternoon) and into the overnight hours.
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There should be a lull in the precipitation on Tuesday morning and afternoon. As this occurs the instability in the atmosphere will rise on Tuesday. A cold front will then push into the region on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. This cold front will spark supercell thunderstorms and a squall line from Iowa and Illinois down into Missouri and Arkansas. This line will produce severe weather. The line will move east into the overnight hours on Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.
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All modes of severe weather will be possible with this line of storms. Large hail, damaging winds, lightning, heavy rain, and even some tornadoes will be possible in our region and areas to our north and west. Stay tuned for updates and keep your NOAA Weather Radio on.
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Rainfall totals over the coming 5 day period could total 1-3" with isolated heavier amounts. Please remember to avoid flooded roadways. Please report any flooding to local law enforcement.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky---
Monday: Partly sunny. Breezy - warm. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some storms may produce a few reports of hail.
Highs: in the lower to middle 70s | Wind: winds from the south at 10-15 mph - gusts to 20 mph. ---
Monday night: Partly cloudy. A few scattered thunderstorms. Storms may produce hail in a few locations.
Lows: around 63 degrees | Wind: south winds at 10 mph. ---
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Windy and mild. A few thunderstorms may form late in the day. If storms do form then they could be severe with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.
Highs: in the lower to middle 80s | Wind: south winds at 15-20 mph with gusts to 40 mph. ---
Tuesday night: Thunderstorms. Some storms will be severe with a risk for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Heavy rain possible. Windy and mild.
Lows: around 64 degrees | Wind: south winds at 10-20 mph and gusty. ---
Wednesday: Thunderstorms early in the day. A few storms could be severe. Locally heavy rain, as well. Storms will move out during the morning hours - off to the east. Cooler after the cold front passes.
Highs: around 72 degrees | Wind: west winds at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.---
Weather Observatory Home Page - Click Here
Below image - High temperatures for Monday afternoon
Below image - High temperatures for Monday afternoon
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Remember you can view all of these images by going to our new graphics page - click here
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Below image - Low temperatures for Tuesday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Tuesday afternoon
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Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site (simply click on the day of the week for the latest video).
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow...
Today (Monday) A few scattered severe thunderstorms can not be ruled out on Monday afternoon. Hail would be the main concern - IF storms develop (there remains some questions on storms forming - I believe they will be scattered in nature)
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Tonight (Monday night) A few scattered severe thunderstorms can not be ruled out tonight. Hail would be the main concern if storms do form along the warm front. Again - scattered in nature.
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Tuesday: A greater risk of severe thunderstorms will arrive on Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Large hail, damaging winds, heavy rain, lightning, and a few tornadoes can not be ruled out. Severe thunderstorms and/or tornado watches and warnings are likely at some point on Tuesday afternoon/evening into Wednesday morning. .
There is also a concern about heavy rain - here (below graphic) is what the latest forecast is showing for rainfall totals. This is broad brushed a bit - but you get the general idea. Most of this will fall with the squall line or line of storms on Tuesday into Wednesday morning (remember that additional heavy rain is possible on Thursday night into Friday night)..
Flash flood guidance from the NWS indicates that the ground can hold around 2" to 2.5" of rain in a 3 hour period over most of our counties. Flash flood guidance indicates the ground can hold around 1.2-1.8" in a 1 hour period. So - if heavy thunderstorms do form then some flash flooding is possible. Especially if thunderstorms train over the same counties. Training is when storms repeatedly move over the same counties - producing extremely heavy rainfall amounts in a short period of time.
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Generally I am thinking 1-2 inches for most of our counties - officially the forecast from the HPC (Hydrological Prediction Center - they are the ones who issue rainfall forecasts for the United States) is for even higher amounts (see the map below). Pockets of heavier rain certainly can't be ruled out. If this were to occur then some counties might see greater than 2 inches of rain..
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And for good measure - here is the official 5 day rainfall chart - let's hope this does not verify. We do not need more flooding problems. .
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Let's take a look at the probabilities of 1" of rain falling in a six hour period (image below). This is for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. You can see the chances are quite high.
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Here is Tuesday forecast map (most of this precipitation would occur on Tuesday afternoon late or Tuesday night into Wednesday morning) - broad brushed.
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You can now view this maps and more maps by clicking here.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts! Maps are available by clicking here.
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The latest 6-10 day outlook is for above normal precipitation. No doubt that will be the case with a number of systems moving through our region.
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1. On and off shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into next Sunday. Right now I am thinking we may see another risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday night into Friday night. Obviously this is still several days away and I will need to fine tune the forecast.Unfortunately it appears the next 2 weeks will be active with multiple chances for severe thunderstorms - some of the storms will likely produce heavy rain.
I will update the blog frequently over the coming days. Stay tuned and keep the NOAA Weather Radios on.
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You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson.
You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson---
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois- Click Here.
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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Other States- Click Here
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