530 PM
Tornado watch has been issued for much of the area - for the watch outline you can go here
Watches and warnings
An historic flood is forecast along the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers in the coming weeks - this is a potentially damaging flood event. If you have interests along the rivers then please monitor for updated crest forecasts.
- Beau
Friday, April 22, 2011
Bottom line - Turn Around - Don't Drown. Life threatening weather is possible over the next six days. If people don't listen and pay attention then lives will be lost. I don't know how to be more clear about the subject. it isn't everyday that I say those words - you will hear them when I think a serious outbreak of severe storms or tornadoes is likely or a weather event that has the potential to be a higher impact than usual.
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Flooding and flash flooding will be possible over the coming days. The National Weather Service encourages everyone to avoid flooded roadways. Report flooding to law enforcement and/or the National Weather Service. Our region experiences flash flood deaths almost every year. People think they can drive through flooded roadways and by the time they realize they can't - it is too late. Please don't be one of those people.4
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You can get the most up to the minute forecast update by clicking hereLatest watches and warnings for your county - Click here
An unusually hyper-active weather pattern is developing. There will be multiple chances of rain and storms over the next few days. We are hoping the pattern will break - at least for a few days - around next Wednesday.
Until then - we will have a threat for some severe thunderstorms - and equally if not more dangerous will be the flash flood and river flood threat. Rivers are going to rise dramatically - I expect the Ohio River at Paducah to go above 50'.
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Also our new forecast page is finished! Just click the link below to see all of our Weather Observatory graphics - from the severe weather outlook to lake and river stages - extended outlooks - monthly outlooks - satellite - and more!.
Weather Observatory Graphics and Forecast Page
River stages - rivers will be rising over the coming 10 day period in our region, as well. Especially with multiple rounds of rain and storms. With each passing event - flooding will become a bigger concern.
http://weather.weatherobservatory.com/rivers/us.html
This site is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer.
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Showers and thunderstorms - heavy at times. A few severe thunderstorms possible on Friday afternoon and Friday night. Wind gusts greater than 58 mph in the heaviest cells and large hail. Isolated tornadoes will be possible - especially over Missouri and Illinois.
Flash flooding will likely occur on Friday night into Saturday across some of our counties. Pay attention - avoid flooded roadways. Do not put your life in danger or the lives of local emergency management - rescue - and fire departments.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky---
Friday: Flash flood watch. Showers and thunderstorms early - rain then ending. Showers and thunderstorms redeveloping during the afternoon. A few storms may be severe with strong winds and hail. Breezy and warmer.
Highs: from 76-78 degrees | Wind: winds from the south at 10-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. ---
Friday night: Flash flood watch. Heavy showers and thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms can't be ruled out with winds greater than 58 mph and large hail. Isolated tornado threat over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Flooding likely in some counties.
Lows: around 65 degrees | Wind: south winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. ---
Saturday: Flash flood watch. Periods of showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather possible, again. Locally heavy rain possible.
Highs: in the middle to upper 70s | Wind: south winds at 15-20 mph ---
Saturday night: Flash flood watch. Showers and thunderstorms likely - some rain may be heavy. Flash flooding possible in some counties - especially our northern and central counties. Severe weather possible, again.
Lows: around 60-64 degrees | Wind: west winds at 10-15 mph---
Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms possible. Some dry periods. Will update the timing of the precipitation on Sunday as I figure out the exact placement of the frontal boundary. Severe weather possible, again.
Highs: around 76-78 degrees | Wind: south/southwest winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.---
Weather Observatory Home Page - Click Here
Below image - High temperatures for Friday afternoon
Below image - High temperatures for Friday afternoon
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Remember you can view all of these images by going to our new graphics page - click here
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Below image - Low temperatures for Saturday morning .
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Below image - High temperatures for Saturday afternoon
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Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site (simply click on the day of the week for the latest video).
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow...
Today (Friday) A few severe thunderstorms can not be ruled out on Friday evening into Friday night. Mainly over Missouri and Illinois - but a few may spread as far east as Kentucky and Tennessee. Stay tuned for updates. Adjustments may need to be made in the exact placement of the greater risk. The bigger concern will be heavy rain later today and tonight.
Tonight (Friday night) A few severe storms with hail and high winds. Isolated tornado in Missouri and Illinois can't be ruled out. Heavy rain will cause flooding concerns.
Saturday: Rain is the concern - with some flooding.
Saturday Night: Rain will be the concern - some heavy at times.
Here is the five day rainfall forecast - as you can see there are some big numbers being spit out by the computers. A general broad brush - but you get the idea. Scale is at the top of the image.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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1. I am zeroing in on the best chance for severe weather to be Friday night and then again next Monday night and Tuesday. However, there will be at least some risk of heavy to severe storms on Saturday and Sunday.
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I will need to update the forecast daily with the latest severe weather forecast.
A bigger concern will be the waves of rain - some heavy. With rivers and streams already high - this will only aggravate the flooding situation. Rivers will continue to rise - perhaps substantially.
I will update the blog frequently over the coming days. Stay tuned and keep the NOAA Weather Radios on.
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You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson.
You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson---
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois- Click Here.
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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Other States- Click Here
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