Good morning everyone! Some sun this morning in west KY and southern IL - not bad. A bit cool - but we can live with that.
Showers and storm chances increase tonight - locally heavy downpours.
The chance for showers and storms will continue into Friday - some breaks. A more widespread rain/storm event is likely again on Friday night. The threat for severe weather will be highest over Missouri and Illinois. Some strong storms into Kentucky also - will monitor details.
Interestingly - here is the tornado ingredients chart for Friday evening. You can see the highest contours over southeast MO and southern IL - basically this chart gives you an idea of where severe thunderstorms might produce a few tornadoes. Click the image for a better resolution view.
Now let's check out the severe weather outlook for Friday - mostly this is for Friday night. You can see the orange area is a "scattered" severe thunderstorm risk zone. Storm Prediction Center calls that a slight risk zone. We are solidly in the risk.
What is even more impressive are the new morning rainfall forecasts - yes you read that right. The numbers for the next 5 days are astounding. The exact placement of that heaviest rain band will need to be closely monitored.
These are amazing numbers. The scale is at the top of the chart - in inches.
You can now view all of these graphics on our new graphics page
GRAPHICS PAGE CLICK HERE
My latest update for the State of Kentucky Transportation Cabinet
April 21, 2011 - forecast issued
Expected Event Time: April 21-April 27th
Event Type: Heavy rainfall of 3-6 inches. Several severe thunderstorms also possible.
Complicated forecast because of the uncertainty surrounding the exact placement of the frontal boundary over the next 5 days. If the boundary is one or two counties further north or south then it changes the expected weather conditions. However, with that said - this is my current forecast.
New graphics are available for you (for example - this is the 5 day rainfall forecast)
http://weather.weatherobservatory.com/maps/forecasts/precip/qpf/120hr/uslowerohvalley.html
A series of storm systems will move through Kentucky over the next 6-7 days. Each system will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms to the state.
Some of the rain will be heavy at times. This will cause further rises on area streams and rivers. The potential exists for significant rises on rivers.
The first round of precipitation will develop on Thursday night and continue on and off into Friday. Especially over the northern part of the state. Areas further south in the state may not experience much precipitation.
The second round of storms will move into the state on Friday night and continue into Saturday There will be a slight risk for severe thunderstorms (winds greater than 58 mph and quarter size hail - isolated tornadoes) on Friday night and Saturday morning.
Additional showers and storms will move through the state on Sunday and Monday. A few scattered severe storms can't be ruled out due to the atmosphere becoming more unstable.
A stronger cold front is expected to approach the state on Monday night and/or Tuesday. This cold front could be accompanied by a significant - region wide - outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.
Pinning down the heaviest rainfall area is difficult. The exact placement of the front will determine what counties will experience the heaviest rains.
Areas across the southern part of the state - from Bowling Green to Paintsville and south of that line - will likely experience the least amount of rain.
Areas across the northern part of the state - from Wickliffe, KY to Covington, KY should experience the highest totals.
Again - it won't rain all the time. There will be periods of on/off showers and storms rolling through the state.
Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
At this time it appears that the following rainfall totals can be expected (keep in mind that ANY fluctuation in the position of the frontal boundary could cause changes in the rainfall forecast totals - these are estimates for the seven day period).
From west to east across the state (this is from Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Wickliffe, KY 3-5" of rain
Paducah, KY 3-5" of rain.
Murray, KY 2-3.5" of rain
Madisonville, KY 3-5" of rain
Owensboro, KY 3-5" of rain
Bowling Green, KY 2-3" of rain
Elizabethtown, KY 2-4" of rain
Louisville, KY 3.0-5.0" of rain
Somerset, KY 1-3" of rain
Jackson, KY 1-3" of rain
Hazard, KY 1-3" of rain
Covington, KY 3-5" of rain
Ashland, KY 2-3" of rain
Locally heavier amounts are possible. These amounts are from April 21-April 27th.
Flash flood and/or flood watches may be required for portions of Kentucky in the coming days.
River stages - note the major flooding on the Mississippi - this will further complicate river forecasts on the Ohio.
http://weather.weatherobservatory.com/rivers/us.html
Please advise motorists to avoid flooded roadways. Turn around - don't drown.
More...
Thursday, April 21, 2011
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You can get the most up to the minute forecast update by clicking hereAn unusually hyper-active weather pattern is developing. This is going to make the forecast complicated - at best. So - just being up front with you :) - I am going to try and tackle this in small segments. I will put extended thoughts at the bottom of the daily post.
We will tackle the severe weather risk in one or two day increments. But - keep in mind - that over the next 7-10 days we may have multiple episodes of showers and thunderstorms. Some strong to severe and some flooding concerns.
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Also our new forecast page is finished! Just click the link below to see all of our Weather Observatory graphics - from the severe weather outlook to lake and river stages - extended outlooks - monthly outlooks - satellite - and more!.
Weather Observatory Graphics and Forecast Page
River stages - rivers will be rising over the coming 10 day period in our region, as well. Especially with multiple rounds of rain and storms. With each passing event - flooding will become a bigger concern.
http://weather.weatherobservatory.com/rivers/us.html
This site is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer.
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A few showers and thunderstorms are possible today - more likely tonight and early Friday morning. Lightning and brief downpours. Heaviest rain would likely be over the northern part of southeast Missouri and from Carbondale to Evansville northward. Rainfall totals in that part of the area will be in the 1-2" range - the rest of the area should pick up 0.25-1.00".
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As area residents continue to clean up from Tuesday nights storms, others are getting prepared for what will be a long 6-8 day period of weather ahead. .
Here is a graphic that the Storm Prediction Center put together showing all of the reports of hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds from the event on Tuesday night. Impressive. Green hail - red tornadoes - blue wind damage.
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A warm front will push northward through the area on Thursday. South of this front will be warmer and more humid air. To the north of the front the atmosphere will be cooler. Showers and storms will develop - mainly north of the front on Thursday evening and continue into Friday morning.
The main concern with this first round of precipitation will be heavy downpours. Rainfall totals in some of our central and northern counties could approach the 2" mark. This - on top of recent rainfall - will cause some flooding concerns.
Another round of storms will move through the area on Friday night. These storms will find themselves in an unstable atmosphere. Severe thunderstorms (by definition this means thunderstorms with winds of around 60 mph and quarter size hail) can't be ruled out on Friday evening into Friday night over our local counties. The main threat would be damaging winds. Listen for updates.
Showers and thunderstorms will then continue - on and off - into Tuesday. Some of the storms could be severe with damaging winds and hail. Heavy rain will be a concern - with each episode of rain will come a better chance of ponding of water and flash flooding.
Flash flood watches may need to be issued for some of our counties in the coming days. As always - we remind everyone to not cross flooded roadways.
Do not be surprised to see some counties pick up 3-7 inches of rain over the next 6-8 days. Most of us will experience 2-3" of rain. The highest risk for the larger totals will be from Poplar Bluff to Paducah to Madisonville - northward. That is how it looks at this time. I will carefully monitor the placement of the front in the coming days to help determine where the heaviest rain threat will be placed.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky---
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms moving in from the south and southwest during the afternoon. A couple of storms may be locally heavy. Still a bit on the cool side (below normal temps).
Highs: from 56-60 degrees | Wind: winds from the east at 10 mph. ---
Thursday night: Milder. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rain - especially over our northern counties - from Cape Girardeau to Evansville.
Lows: around 58 degrees | Wind: south winds at 10-15 mph. ---
Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely early in the day. Then becoming dry. A few scattered showers and storms possible late in the day. Rain chances will be higher the further north and northeast you go in the area. Warmer.
Highs: in the upper 70s | Wind: south winds at 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. ---
Friday night: Thunderstorms. Some storms will be severe with a risk for damaging winds. Heavy rain possible. Windy and mild.
Lows: around 64 degrees | Wind: south winds at 10-20 mph and gusty. ---
Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible.
Highs: around 78 degrees | Wind: south winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.---
Weather Observatory Home Page - Click Here
Below image - High temperatures for Thursday afternoon
Below image - High temperatures for Thursday afternoon
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Remember you can view all of these images by going to our new graphics page - click here
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Below image - Low temperatures for Friday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Friday afternoon
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Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site (simply click on the day of the week for the latest video).
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow...
Today (Thursday) No risk for severe storms. A few thunderstorms possible later this afternoon. Should remain below severe levels. Locally heavy rain and lightning possible with any cells that form.
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Tonight (Thursday night) Storms should not be severe. Locally heavy rain is likely in some of our counties - especially from Cape Girardeau to Evansville and then northward.
Friday: A chance for severe storms late Friday afternoon and Friday night.
Friday Night: A chance for a few severe thunderstorms with winds greater than 60 mph and large hail.
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Here is the latest 5 day rainfall forecast. As you can see - heavy rain is likely in our region. This is going to cause concerns along areas rivers and streams. Also in areas that normally flood during heavy rain events..
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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1. I am zeroing in on the best chance for severe weather to be Friday night and then again next Monday night and Tuesday. However, there will be at least some risk of heavy to severe storms on Saturday and Sunday.
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I will need to update the forecast daily with the latest severe weather forecast.
A bigger concern will be the waves of rain - some heavy. With rivers and streams already high - this will only aggravate the flooding situation. Rivers will continue to rise - perhaps substantially.
I will update the blog frequently over the coming days. Stay tuned and keep the NOAA Weather Radios on.
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You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson.
You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson---
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois- Click Here.
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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Other States- Click Here
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