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Instability is increasing over southeast Missouri, northeast Arkansas, western Kentucky, far southern Illinois, and western Tennessee.
The potential for a life threatening flash flood event is increasing. Residents of the area should rush to completion any activities. Stay off the roads.
Listen to NOAA Weather Radio for watches and warnings.
This is a potentially dangerous situation developing - heavy rains are moving in from Missouri and Arkansas. Severe thunderstorms will also be possible.
Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
Monday, April 25, 2011
Crunching morning numbers - I am a bit encouraged that there are a lot of clouds around this morning. This should help keep instability down a bit. If this is the case through the day then the severe weather risk is more limited later tonight. Instead of widespread severe weather we may be able to keep it down to just a few scattered severe storms.
As always - remember that it only takes one or two tornadoes to cause problems. So - stay alert tonight.
We are still expecting quite a bit of rain and storms to develop on and off through the day. The best chance for severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings would be later today and especially tonight as an area of low pressure pulls off to the north.
I updated the forecast section below with the new information.
Monday, April 25, 2011
The regular daily information can be found by scrolling down - I wanted to re-post my email I sent out yesterday with emphasis on the magnitude of the event developing in our region.
Please share this information with your friends.
I will copy the previous email below - that I sent out yesterday
Video Of The National Weather Service Telling People To PREPARE NOW - the video can be viewed on the link below and can also be found on my Facebook Page
http://www.wpsdlocal6.com/weather/more/Web-Extra-National-Weather-Service-News-Conference-120582339.html
Monday
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Catastrophic flood event is unfolding...
Severe weather outbreak on Monday afternoon into Monday night - all modes of severe weather possible - tornado risk. Supercells will form in Arkansas on Monday afternoon and spread northeast. These single cell storms may form into a squall line during the evening and overnight hours as they push into our region. One good bit of news is that instability may not be as strong in our region as earlier expected. This could help lessen the widespread nature of the severe weather event.
Thunderstorms could also form at any time on Monday through the time - but the most intense weather may be on Monday afternoon late and Monday night. Listen to NOAA Weather Radio and local media as this event unfolds.
Severe weather is also possible on Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday evening - timing will need to be fine tuned in the coming days - a tornado outbreak is forecast for portions of the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley. It is still too early to determine the exact location of the most intense weather on Tuesday and Wednesday.
This flood event is going to be similar to the 2009 ice storm (meaning we are dealing with an event that we have not experienced in most of our lifetimes and it could impact a large number of people - this is NOT in reference to power outages).
Widespread flooding may impact significant numbers of people in our region - Ohio and Tennessee Valley...
Check latest river crest levels and monitor local media for updates on this event.
River Crests http://weather.weatherobservatory.com/rivers/us.html
Also here http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=pah
Alerts and recommendations:
Media: Please bring as much awareness as possible to the potential of flash flooding and flooding on area rivers. NOW is the time to prepare for major rises on area rivers. This could be an historic event. People need to prepare.
Schools: HEAVY emphasis on reminding students to avoid flooded roadways. Also pay close attention to the potential for severe weather Monday afternoon through Wednesday. All modes of severe weather could impact the region - including tornadoes. Review severe weather safety plans and measures. Refresh NOAA Weather Radio batteries.
Emergency management and first responders: Be prepared for flash flooding and water rescue. I recommend a heightened state of alert for potential problems. Also - severe storms during this pattern may provide little advanced notice. Storms in this environment can quickly spin up tornadoes. As we have seen over the last three days with numerous reports of damage in the region.
General public: Check river crest levels. Evacuations will be necessary in some areas. Plan NOW if you believe you are in a flood prone area. Listen to NOAA Weather Radio for watches/warnings. Listen to your favorite severe weather information source for changes in weather forecasts and conditions. We have reports of children playing in flood waters - please work together to warn against and prevent this from happening.
Report all severe weather to local law enforcement or the National Weather Service. Refresh NOAA Weather Radio batteries.
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Best advice - have a NOAA Weather Radio and monitor changes in the weather throughout the next 4 days - I don't know any other way to put it.
An historic flood is forecast for portions of the Mississippi and Ohio River basin. We could - potentially - be looking at water levels greater (in some counties) than the 1995 and 1997 flood. This will be dependent on just how much rain falls in the coming days. Some counties may approach the 1937 water levels.
Certainly this is a concern for emergency management officials and everyone in the region. Please stay updated on forecasts.
If you have friends or family with interest along area rivers then advice them to take precautionary measures - now.
Emergency management and fire officials request that you please avoid flooded roadways.
I will do a video update on Sunday morning - after 10 am
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
I will update the blog and more frequently the Facebook page
I have a graphic here - click the time period you would like to view - 24/48/72/120 hours - rainfall
Rainfall Graphic
Flash flood watches and warnings blanket the area.
Here are some links that you might find useful
Radar - we will be running all the radars today - interactive ones and the high resolution radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
Watches and warnings
http://weather.weatherobservatory.com/maps/severe/warnings/all/uslowerohvalley.html
Additional link for watches and warnings (click your area)
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php#maps
Streaming audio to listen to area storm spotters
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/scanner-feed.htm
Listen to NOAA Weather Radio and local media sources for the most up to date information on watches and warnings as this event unfolds.
Next email update will be on Sunday evening or Monday morning.
Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Bottom line - Turn Around - Don't Drown. Life threatening weather is possible over the next four days. If people don't listen and pay attention then lives will be lost. I don't know how to be more clear about the subject. it isn't everyday that I say those words - you will hear them when I think a serious outbreak of severe storms or tornadoes is likely or a weather event that has the potential to be a higher impact than usual.
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Flooding and flash flooding will be possible over the coming days. The National Weather Service encourages everyone to avoid flooded roadways. Report flooding to law enforcement and/or the National Weather Service. Our region experiences flash flood deaths almost every year. People think they can drive through flooded roadways and by the time they realize they can't - it is too late. Please don't be one of those people.
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You can get the most up to the minute forecast update by clicking hereLatest watches and warnings for your county - Click here
Our new forecast page is finished! Just click the link below to see all of our Weather Observatory graphics - from the severe weather outlook to lake and river stages - extended outlooks - monthly outlooks - satellite - and more!.
Weather Observatory Graphics and Forecast Page
This site is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer.
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A few severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and tonight. Morning data indicates that instability is not as great as it appeared it would be last night. This is good news. Perhaps we will avoid the widespread severe outbreak. Still some reports of severe weather will likely occur. We are concerned about the potential for more flooding and flash flooding - obviously. Turn around don't drown. Avoid flooded roadways - please do not risk your life by crossing roads with water over them.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky---
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Monday: Flash flood watch and warnings continue. Periods of showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather possible, again - especially late this afternoon. Locally heavy rain possible. .
Highs: in the middle 70s | Wind: south winds at 15-20 mph ---
Monday night: Flash flood watch. Showers and thunderstorms likely - some rain may be heavy. Flash flooding possible in some counties. A few counties may experience severe weather with high winds and hail. Isolated tornado threat, as well.
Lows: around 60-64 degrees | Wind: south winds at 10-15 mph---
Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Becoming more likely late in the day and into the overnight hours. Heavy rain and isolated severe weather possible once again.
Highs: around 77 degrees | Wind: south/southwest winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.---
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Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site (simply click on the day of the week for the latest video).
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow...
Monday: Showers and thunderstorms developing in the heat of the day. A few storms could be strong or severe. Isolated reports of hail and high winds. Heavy rain is possible with any storms that do form. Flash flooding is still a concern.
Monday Night: A few severe thunderstorms possible.. Flash flood threat. Threat for high winds, hail, and a few tornadoes.
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Tuesday Night: A few thunderstorms possible - more likely on Tuesday night. We are unsure on the severe threat for Tuesday - stay tuned..
Here is the latest 5 day rainfall forecast - yes those are some big numbers. You can now view these rainfall maps by clicking here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson.
You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson---
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.---
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois- Click Here.
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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Other States- Click Here
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