Friday, April 8, 2011
6 PM Update
Showers and severe thunderstorms are forming over northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. This is in response to a piece of energy moving into that region - this will shift east overnight. Showers and storms should continue to form into southwest Missouri over the coming hours. If these storms do form then they would move east into our region late tonight and early Saturday morning.
Assuming the CAP breaks then there will be some threat for severe thunderstorms late tonight. Hail and high winds would be the main threat - although an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.
- Beau
Friday, April 8, 2011
2 PM
I updated the video to take a look at tonight's severe weather threat
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
Listen to NOAA Weather Radio and local media tonight into tomorrow morning for updates on any storms that may form or move into our region.
Latest Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
- Beau
Friday, April 8, 2011
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I am increasing the threat for severe weather this evening into tonight/early Saturday morning over our region. Latest data indicates that a few thunderstorms may form in Missouri and spread east into Illinois and Kentucky tonight. If these storms do form then they could be supercells capable of producing large hail, strong winds, and isolated tornadoes.
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There will be a CAP today which will allow the atmosphere to become unstable. IF this CAP does break and allows thunderstorms to form then they would likely quickly become severe. The severe weather threat, again, is dependent on the CAP breaking.
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The greatest risk for strong or severe storms will probably be over southern and southeast Missouri into southern Illinois. However, western Kentucky is also under a threat for a few storms, as well. Right now it appears the storms will form this evening over southwest Missouri and then spread east into our local counties during the overnight hours and early morning hours of Saturday. This could be a late night event.
A few thunderstorms may also form this afternoon over our region - especially the eastern half of the area. Any storms that do form could be strong with gusty winds and possibly some hail.
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Best advice is to monitor radar.
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Severe thunderstorm or tornado watches may be necessary later this afternoon or tonight for some of our counties. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for the latest information.
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No changes for Saturday forecast...
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Sunday forecast - there is major and significant differences in opinions on the potential event on Sunday night.
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The Storm Prediction Center has removed almost all of us from the risk of severe thunderstorms.
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The reason they have removed us from the risk is because they believe the system has slowed down enough to decrease the risk for severe storms in our area. This will need to be closely monitored.
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At this time it appears a squall line will move into the area later on Sunday night into the early hours of Monday. This line could produce severe weather.
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The timing is the big issue. One major U.S. model slows the whole system down and doesn't bring it into southern Illinois and western Kentucky until 4 or 5 am in the morning. Another major U.S. Computer model brings the squall line through southern Illinois and western Kentucky around 8-11 pm.
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We will need to monitor and update this part of the forecast. I suspect the squall line will arrive over our western counties after 8 pm on Sunday and then push east into the rest of the region late Sunday night into Monday morning.
Watching another potential severe weather maker towards the end of next week (Thursday or so)
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- Beau
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Friday, April 8, 2011
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I will update the blog around 8-10 am on Friday morning.---
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A few thunderstorms are possible - if storms do form then there is a small chance of severe weather - mainly gusty winds and hail.
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Here comes the warm air! Temperatures will be in the 80s today into Sunday! A few scattered storms around the area. I wouldn't cancel any plans - but I would check radar through the day just to be on the safe side. ---
I am expecting an area of showers and thunderstorms to form late Friday night or Saturday morning over eastern Missouri and then slide into southern Illinois and Kentucky. Again - a small chance of some of the storms being severe. Will monitor and update accordingly.
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Gusty winds and warm temperatures will be the rule on Sunday. Temperatures will be in the 80s! This will be ahead of a strong cold front. That cold front will bring a line of showers and thunderstorms in to our counties. This will move in from the west on Sunday night. Some of the storms will likely be severe with high winds and hail. Can't rule out a few tornadoes along the track of the squall line, as well. ---
Monday will bring a bit cooler air and very gusty winds.
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The National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, local media, and others will be closely monitoring the Sunday event. Check back often for updates over the coming days. I will keep the blog updated - most likely will update a few times each day - also check out the Facebook page.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky---
Highs: lower 80s | Wind: South winds at 10-15 mph.
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Friday night: Partly cloudy with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Lows: around 64 | Wind: South winds at 10-15 mph.
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Saturday: Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible - especially over parts of southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky. Warm. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 85 degrees | Wind: South/southwest winds at 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. ---
Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Mild.
Lows: around 68 degrees | Wind: South winds at 10-15 mph ---
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. Warm. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: near 82-84 degrees | Wind: South/southwest winds at 10-20 mph - gusting to 30 mph.---
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Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site (simply click on the day of the week for the latest video).
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: Small chance for a few severe thunderstorms scattered around the area - especially over Kentucky. Will update the blog a couple of times on Friday.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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1. Severe weather outbreak is likely to impact the entire region on Sunday night/Monday morning. Most likely this event will start over the western part of the area on Sunday afternoon - very late and move east into all of the area by late Sunday evening and into the overnight hours - early hours of Monday morning.
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The event will likely end by Monday morning and shift eastward of our region.---
Here is what I am thinking for Saturday into Sunday night - wide area under the threat of severe storms.---
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This event is still several days away - I will need to fine tune the timing and placement of the greatest risk for severe thunderstorms. Stay tuned.-
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You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonYou can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page
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McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois- Click HereTo view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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Other States- Click Here
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