April 30, 2011: Here comes the rain again...

Saturday, April 30, 2011

Video has been updated
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm

Well, the break didn't last long.  It appears more rain is heading into our region - so I felt I should update.  I am also going to add a Sandbag and First Responder forecast to the page (until this flood event is over)

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A flood warning continues for our area - see the detailed information on watches and warnings by clicking here...

A flash flood watch has been issued for Saturday night into Monday for far southern Illinois, western Kentucky, southeast Missouri, northeast Arkansas, and western Tennessee.  Just click the previous for watch details.  Additional widespread rainfall totals of 1-3" are likely with pockets of 3-5" of rain.   I am just the messenger - please send all hate mail to Nature!

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Have you joined the email list?  I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of severe weather.  Basically this is a "heads up" email.  If you would like to subscribe then click here.
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Also our new forecast page is finished!  Just click the link below to see all of our Weather Observatory graphics - from the severe weather outlook to lake and river stages - extended outlooks - monthly outlooks - satellite - and more!.

Weather Observatory Graphics and Forecast Page

River stages
http://weather.weatherobservatory.com/rivers/us.html 

This site is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox.  There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer..

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For today - Clouds will be on the increase - winds, as well.  South/southwest winds at 15-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph in open areas.  A few showers and thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon and more likely during the evening hours.  

Lightning is the main concern - although a brief severe thunderstorm is also possible.  We are under a slight risk, according to the Storm Prediction Center, for severe storms later today and this evening.   

We have been getting reports of more and more snakes in areas they should not be.  Use caution.  

Avoid flooded roadways as you are out and about helping others.   

Need to check radar today?  No problem - click here.
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River stages
http://weather.weatherobservatory.com/rivers/us.html 

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Continued flooding.  Concern will increase with each passing day that the strain on levees could cause some to break.  Be prepared for flash flooding in the event of a levee breach.  Have life jackets and other emergency supplies ready for immediate deployment in the event of a breach.  

Gusty winds today (20-35 mph - perhaps 40 mph on lakes and open areas)

Snake bites - a number of people have reported snakes escaping the flood waters and moving into areas they are normally not seen.

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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky
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Saturday: Partly cloudy.  Windy and mild.  An increasing chance for a shower or thunderstorm late in the day - towards evening - especially over southeast MO and western TN - moving east/northeast.

Highs:  in the upper 70s and lower 80s  | Wind: south winds at 15-20 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

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Saturday night:  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  A few strong storms possible - especially over the southern portion of the region (Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee).

Lows: around 60 degrees  |  Wind: south winds at 10-15 mph.

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Sunday:  A chance for morning showers and then a lull in the precipitation.  A chance for showers returning during the afternoon and evening hours.  Cooler. 

Highs:  around 69 degrees  | Wind: northwest winds at 10 mph.

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Sunday night:  Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cooler.

Lows: around 53 degrees  |  Wind: northwest winds at 10-15 mph.

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Monday:  A good chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Cooler. 

Highs:  around 63 degrees  | Wind: north/northwest winds at 10 mph.

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Rainfall totals from Saturday night into Monday should be in the 1-3" range.  Pockets of heavier rain possible.  Additional rain will fall after Sunday afternoon.  Flash flood watches and warnings have been issued for the region.
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Weather Observatory Home Page - Click Here

Below image - High temperatures for Saturday afternoon
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Remember you can view all of these images by going to our new graphics page - click here
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Below image - High temperatures for Sunday afternoon

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Below image - High temperatures for Monday afternoon 

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow... 

Today (Saturday)  A few storms may develop late this afternoon
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Tonight (Saturday night)  Thunderstorms are likely.  Locally heavy rain.  Some isolated warnings are possible - mainly for hail and gusty winds.  Lightning is a concern with any storms that form.  Flash flooding, as well.

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Sunday and Sunday night:  Showers and thunderstorms - but they are not forecast to be severe.  I will monitor this time frame.  Right now it mainly looks like rain is the biggest concern..  
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Here is the official graphic from the Storm Prediction Center (remember they are the national government office the forecasts severe weather and outlines the risk zones)  You can see they have a yellow area for our counties - this means general thunderstorms but below severe levels.  The orange area is a slight risk zone - slight risk means that severe storms are likely but should not be widespread in nature (I know - I know slight isn't the best word but that is what they use)

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And here is the outlook graphic for Sunday - yellow just means general thunderstorms but not expected to be severe in nature.  
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Rainfall totals for the next 72 hours
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You can see there are some pretty big numbers showing up on the 72 hour rainfall map.  Let's hope for the low end of the range - but be prepared for the bigger amounts.
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The good news is that after the rain moves out on Monday night or Tuesday - then we should have some dry days afterwards.

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You can view the updated rainfall forecast maps - updated twice a day by going to the Weather Observatory Forecast Site - Click Here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts!  Maps are available by clicking here.
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1.Main concern will be when does the rain move out.  Monday night or Tuesday.  IF the front stalls then it will likely hold on until Tuesday.  It appears at this time to be a decent bet that on/off rain will continue into Tuesday morning.  Then the rain should come to an end later on Tuesday.  

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2.  I am watching the May 7th-13th time frame for severe weather risks.  It appears the atmosphere will reload by then and produce a few storm systems that will need to be monitored.  Hail will be the main risk. 

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3.  The first half of May will likely bring a break in this extreme severe weather pattern - this is good news.   
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4.  Look for hurricane forecasts to come out soon - would not be a bit surprised to see an active hurricane season with the pattern favoring a big hit on the southeast and east coast of the United States. 

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You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson
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You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois- Click Here

To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here

To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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Other States- Click Here

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