Thursday, April 7, 2011
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A few thunderstorms are possible later tonight (Thursday night).
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Temperatures will warm into the 70s again today (Thursday). Even warmer temperatures will arrive for Friday and perhaps Saturday (Saturday may bring an increase in clouds - so temperature forecasts will need to be tweaked a bit if we have more clouds than expected). ---
Most of our counties should see 80s on Friday! A welcome change from our recent cool weather.
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There will be some lift in the atmosphere on Thursday night and Friday morning and then again later on Friday evening into Friday night and Saturday over our region. This will help trigger some widely scattered thunderstorms. Any storms that do form could be strong and possibly severe. ---
We will need to monitor Friday and Saturday for the risk of a few severe storms (meaning storms with winds greater than 60 mph and hail the size of quarters). There will be a lot of instability in the region. This combined with a small disturbance in the atmosphere could be enough to trigger an area of showers and thunderstorms over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. If these storms were to form then they would likely move towards the east/southeast into Kentucky.
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At this time (the time of this writing) the Storm Prediction Center (SPC - is the agency responsible for issuing severe weather outlooks and severe thunderstorm and tornado watches) has not outlined our region for severe storms on Friday or Saturday. However, I think this may change in later outlooks. We will see. I will update the blog later today (Thursday) concerning the latest SPC outlooks.
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Of even greater concern is a regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms that will impact our entire region on Sunday into Sunday night/Monday morning. I am forecasting large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes over our region on Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Areas west and north of us will also be impacted on Saturday into Saturday night.
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I am expecting the Storm Prediction Center to place our region in a slight or moderate risk for severe storms on Sunday. Much of the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley may be impacted by this outbreak of severe thunderstorms. Spotters and area residents should pay close attention to updates on this event. There is the potential for significant severe weather in and near our region.
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The National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, local media, and others will be closely monitoring the Sunday event. Check back often for updates over the coming days. I will keep the blog updated - most likely will update a few times each day - also check out the Facebook page.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky---
Highs: middle 70s | Wind: South winds at 10-15 mph.
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Thursday night: Partly cloudy with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Lows: around 63 | Wind: South winds at 10-15 mph.
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Friday: Partly cloudy. A stray thunderstorm early. Warm. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 83 degrees | Wind: South/southwest winds at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. ---
Friday night: Partly cloudy. A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms late - a strong storm possible. Mild.
Lows: around 68 degrees | Wind: South winds at 10-15 mph ---
Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance for showers and thunderstorms - a few strong or severe storms possible. Warm. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: near 82 degrees | Wind: South/southwest winds at 10-20 mph - higher gusts.---
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Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site (simply click on the day of the week for the latest video).
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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1. Severe weather outbreak is likely to impact the entire region on Sunday into Sunday night/Monday morning. Most likely this event will start over the western part of the area on Sunday afternoon and move east into all of the area by late Sunday afternoon or evening and into the overnight hours.
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Thunderstorms during the Sunday event could produce large hail, damaging winds, heavy rain, lightning, and tornadoes.---
The event will likely end by Monday morning and shift eastward of our region. ---
Here is what I am thinking for Saturday into Sunday night - wide area under the threat of severe storms. ---
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This event is still several days away - I will need to fine tune the timing and placement of the greatest risk for severe thunderstorms. Stay tuned.-
Rainfall totals over the coming five day period should range from 1/2-1" - locally higher amounts. The image below is a broad brushed look at how rainfall totals should add up (again remember that locally heavier rain is likely with the squall line on Sunday).
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And check out the temperature forecast for Friday :) - warm!-
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You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson
You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonYou can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page
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McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois- Click HereTo view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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Other States- Click Here
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