12 NOON Update...
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No changes in the forecast. Showers and storms will move in tomorrow morning - a few may be strong and/or severe. Weather watches may be necessary later tonight into tomorrow morning.A serious tornado event is possible tonight to our west and southwest. Damaging storms are likely to impact areas from Kansas and Missouri down into Texas and northern Louisiana - I fear lives will be lost. I am expecting several tornadoes - possibly strong tornadoes overnight in those areas.
The threat for severe storms tomorrow afternoon, in our region, will depend on instability. Check back for updates as this event unfolds. I will be up early in the morning covering any severe storms - check my Facebook page for frequent updates.
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a lot of sun over our region! I am sure there are no complaints about that subject.
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The National Weather Service has updated the river forecast for Paducah. They have raised the crest level a bit. Here is the latest data. For more river and lake crests - click here.
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- Beau
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Thursday, April 14, 2011
Our new forecast page is finished! Just click the link below to see all of our Weather Observatory graphics - from the severe weather outlook to lake and river stages - extended outlooks - monthly outlooks - satellite - and more!
Weather Observatory Graphics and Forecast Page
River stages - check out the major flooding across the northern Plains (you can click down to our local area)
http://weather.weatherobservatory.com/rivers/us.html
This site is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer.
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Thunderstorms chances increase tonight - a small chance for severe storms between 3 am and 9 am. A better chance for severe storms later on Friday (afternoon hours into the evening hours - conditional on whether the atmosphere can become unstable behind the main area of rain on Friday morning - see previous post from Wednesday).
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What did we do to deserve this nice weather? Oh yes - all the bad weather of recent weeks! I guess everyone would like to see a repeat today (Thursday)? Well - guess what - you get one more nice day!!!! .
Our next storm system is already taking shape out west. This storm - powerful storm - will develop over the next 48 hours and push east into our region.
Thunderstorms - some severe - will break out from Kansas down into Oklahoma and Texas later today. These storms will likely produce a rash of damaging wind, hail, and tornado reports. The severe weather will spread east into Missouri and Arkansas later tonight (Thursday night).
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The storms will weaken as they approach our region on Friday morning. A few strong storms with damaging winds can't be ruled out between the hours of 3 am and 9 am on Friday morning.
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Then the big question arrives - what happens next. If the atmosphere can reload itself then we will see a significant threat for severe thunderstorms from Indiana and Illinois/Missouri south into Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama.
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So - how does this play out.
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The morning storms will push off to our east on Friday morning. This will leave mostly cloudy skies behind - at some point during the late morning hours the sky may begin to clear and the sun will come out. If the sun does come out (notice I said "if") then the atmosphere will become unstable. Remember - if the atmosphere heats up then it is becoming more unstable. That is why on severe weather days you do not want to see a lot of sunshine. Sun = bad (at least on days when severe weather is forecast).
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If the sky does not clear then the atmosphere will not become as unstable.
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Notice there are an awful lot of ifs in the above forecast.
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Bottom line - STAY TUNED on this one. There is at least a risk for large hail (possibly very large hail) and tornadoes in or near our region on Friday. I will update the blog a few times on Thursday and then again later on Thursday night.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky---
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Mild with slightly above normal temperatures.
Highs: in the lower 70s | Wind: winds from the south at 5-10 mph. ---
Thursday night: Increasing clouds with showers and storms likely late at night - especially after 2 am at night. Some storms could be on the strong side with gusty winds and small hail.
Lows: around 57 degrees | Wind: east winds at 5 mph. ---
Friday: Mostly cloudy rain and storms early - then a break. Some clearing. Showers and storms redevelop later in the afternoon. Some storms may be severe with hail and high winds. Tornadoes will be possible.
Highs: in the middle 70s | Wind: south winds at 10 mph. ---
Friday night: Increasing clouds. A chance for evening showers and storm thunderstorms. Rain coming to an end late in the afternoon. cooler.
Lows: around 45 degrees | Wind: southeast/east winds at 15 mph. ---
Saturday: Clearing and cooler. A hew popup showers possible - some with small hail not out of the question.
Highs: around 54 degrees | Wind: west at 10 mph.---
Weather Observatory Home Page - Click Here
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Wednesday weather map - you can see the next system approaching from the west. This map is for the 2 pm Thursday through - 2 pm Friday time frame. Most of the precipitation will hold off until Thursday night (late) and then Friday morning (round 1 of storms).
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Wednesday weather map - you can see the next system approaching from the west. This map is for the 2 pm Thursday through - 2 pm Friday time frame. Most of the precipitation will hold off until Thursday night (late) and then Friday morning (round 1 of storms).
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Then the above map shows you the Friday weather map - more storms - at least round 1 in the morning and then possibly round 2 in the afternoon. Stay tuned concerning the severe weather threat.
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Rainfall totals for the next 5 days. You can see the legend/scale at the top of the image. Quite a bit of rain may fall in our region. This will further aggravate the flooding situation.
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Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site (simply click on the day of the week for the latest video).
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow. Storms chances increase on Thursday night and Friday morning. Then a second round on Friday afternoon - potentially severe. Stay tuned.
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The Ohio River continues to rise - here is an updated graphic showing the Ohio River at Paducah. You can view more information by clicking here - http://weather.weatherobservatory.com/rivers/gauge/PAHK2.html---
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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High temperatures on Wednesday - from our new weather graphics from the Weather Observatory web-site
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Then the low temperatures for Thursday morning.
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1. Watching another system for next week. Rainfall with that system could be heavy - as a matter of fact of series of storms system will bring strong thunderstorm chances with the potential for flooding rains. Never a dull moment in our region. Stay tuned on next week, as well. May need to rise the crest levels on area lakes and streams/rivers.
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Here is the latest 6-10 day outlook. It appears we are heading back into a wet period (surprise surprise show me the NOT face). Not a good situation for area lakes and rivers. Here are the graphics for the 6-10 day outlook and the 8-14 day outlook. Both show green for our region - above normal precipitation.
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And then the 8-14 day outlook for precipitation - this map also indicates above normal precipitation is expected for that period of time.
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You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson.
You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson---
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois- Click Here.
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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Other States- Click Here
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