Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Don't forget we have a TON of new graphics now available for you
http://weather.weatherobservatory.com/index.php
11 AM Update - to introduce severe storms threat on Thursday night and Friday...
I am crunching some of the new numbers for Thursday night and Friday. I am not overly concerned about the potential squall line or complex of thunderstorms on Thursday night - however, it could produce heavy rain.
The severe weather threat on Thursday night will likely be confined to areas to our west or the western portion of our area.
However, I am more concerned about Friday. At this time - keep in mind we are still quite a bit of time away from this event - it appears that one area of showers and thunderstorms will push through the region on late Thursday night and Friday morning. Then if the atmosphere can destabilize again, we would see a second round of storms develop on Friday afternoon. If these storms do form then they could become severe with damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes.
This will be a conditional severe weather threat. Let me explain what conditional means - conditional means that the threat for severe weather will be dependent on the atmosphere recharging itself or in other words becoming unstable again. The first round of storms will help stabilize the atmosphere (the Thursday night and Friday morning showers/storms).
How does the atmosphere become unstable? One way the atmosphere can become destabilized is by the sun coming out and heating the atmosphere - another way would be for the wind speeds aloft to increase and for temperatures above us to cool down.
So - the threat is conditional because it is too early to determine if we will see sun break out behind the early morning complex of thunderstorms and it is conditional because there are questions as to whether the atmosphere will become unstable again.
Bottom line - pay attention to forecasts over the next 24-48 hours.
Below are the new severe weather outlooks for Thursday and Friday from our friends at the Storm Prediction Center...
The first graphic is for Thursday - you can see the threat for severe thunderstorms to our west - creeping into our region (the orange area is a slight risk and the red area is a moderate risk for severe weather).
The second graphic is the Friday severe weather outlook. You can see the threat is on top of our region and then off to the east. Again - a conditional threat.
The third map is the forecasted precipitation for this event. Another 1-2" of rain could fall in our region. This will aggravate the flooding concerns. Rivers will be rising, again. Please avoid flooded roadways.
.
.
.
Finally I wanted to show you this sounding. What the heck is a sounding? It is glance into the atmosphere above us. The bottom of the graphic is the surface and as you move higher up the graphic you are looking higher up into the atmosphere. Imagine it is a slice of the atmosphere from top to bottom.
On the right side of the image you will see wind barbs. That tells me the direction of the wind and whether it is turning as it goes higher and higher in the atmosphere. We call this wind shear. You can also see the wind speeds - the little barbs on the lines. Each line is 10 knot. A wind barb with two lines would be 20 knot winds. A wind line with a triangle on it would be 50 knot winds. When winds increase with height that is also called wind shear.
At the bottom of this image you can see the lines on the right size of the page are pointing down - that means the winds are from the south - as you increase up the chart you can see the lines start to turn more southwestly and then westerly. The winds are turning with height. That means there is quite a bit of wind shear in the atmosphere.
Why do we care about wind shear? Wind shear helps aid in the development of thunderstorms.
Another item I look for in the atmosphere is CAPE. CAPE is basically positive energy. Thunderstorms need CAPE to feed off of and to bubble up into the atmosphere. The more CAPE you have the better chance storms will develop. Imagine CAPE as gasoline for your car engine - except this gasoline is free and provided by nature! In this image CAPE is everything within and to the left of that red line - but bounded to the right of the white line. I marked it for you - so you can cheat a little bit!
Quite a bit of CAPE on Friday and quite a bit of wind shear. Signs of potential trouble.
This sounding is for early Friday afternoon - for Paducah. What this sounding tells me is that conditions (assuming this model is correct) will favor the development of severe thunderstorms on Friday from late morning into the afternoon hours. Again - still 48 hours away and a lot can change between now and then. I just wanted to show you what meteorologists look at when considering whether or not to put severe storms in the forecast.
Normally we don't know until the day of an event as to just how big of a threat we are facing. So - bottom line - stay tuned over the next 36 hours for updates and we will see how this unfolds. Whether we have a severe weather threat on Friday will be conditional on the atmosphere being able to recover (being unstable again) after the first round of showers and storms late Thursday night and Friday morning.
.
Here is another shot of the same image - but note the turning winds at the bottom (circled in yellow) - they go from southeast to south and then southwest. Turning winds - this is a sign of a potential tornado threat.
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
.
Our new forecast page is finished! Just click the link below to see all of our Weather Observatory graphics - from the severe weather outlook to lake and river stages - extended outlooks - monthly outlooks - satellite - and more!
Weather Observatory Graphics and Forecast Page
River stages - check out the major flooding across the northern Plains (you can click down to our local area)
http://weather.weatherobservatory.com/rivers/us.html
This site is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer.
---
---
No concerns today - there may still be a few flooded roadways from the recent heavy rainfall - use caution.
---
----------------------------------
---
----------------------------------
---
Wow - nice spring weather has arrived. Mild temperatures on Tuesday (okay maybe a little on the cool side - but how can we complain after all the rain and cold temps over the last few weeks) - and that mild weather will continue into today (Wednesday). .
Our next storm system arrives Thursday night into Friday. At this time it appears an outbreak of severe thunderstorms - with tornadoes - will occur to our west on Thursday and then again to our south on Friday. Very large hail is possible on Thursday into Thursday night across portions of Kansas and Missouri down into Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Texas. Perhaps as far north as Nebraska. Would not be a bit surprised to see some reports of golf ball to baseball size hail out in that region.
It is questionable as to whether our local counties experience any severe weather late Thursday night and again on Friday. Part of this will depend on the speed of the system and instability levels on Friday. Stay tuned for updates.-
.
.
---
---
This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky---
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Mild with slightly above normal temperatures.
Highs: in the lower 70s | Wind: light winds. ---
Wednesday night: Mostly clear. Cool.
Lows: around 47 degrees | Wind: east winds at 5 mph. ---
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Pleasant. Some high clouds moving in during the afternoon. Mild with above normal temperatures.
Highs: in the middle 70s | Wind: south winds at 10 mph. ---
Thursday night: Increasing clouds. A chance for thunderstorms late. Some storms may be strong.
Lows: around 60 degrees | Wind: southeast/east winds at 15 mph. ---
Friday: Thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rain. A few strong storms. Mild.
Highs: around 70-72 degrees | Wind: south winds at 10-15 mph.---
Weather Observatory Home Page - Click Here
.
Wednesday weather map - you can see the next system approaching from the west. This map is for the 8 am Wednesday - 8 pm Wednesday time frame
.
.
Wednesday weather map - you can see the next system approaching from the west. This map is for the 8 am Wednesday - 8 pm Wednesday time frame
.
.
--------------------
---
Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site (simply click on the day of the week for the latest video).
---
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: No severe weather on Wednesday or Thursday during the day - some strong storms possible Thursday night!
.
The Ohio River continues to rise - here is an updated graphic showing the Ohio River at Paducah. You can view more information by clicking here - http://weather.weatherobservatory.com/rivers/gauge/PAHK2.html.
---
--
.
We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
---
--------------------
.
High temperatures on Wednesday - from our new weather graphics from the Weather Observatory web-site
.
---
--
1. Watching another system for next week.
.
Here is the latest 6-10 day outlook. We should average below normal in the temperature department. The blue area favors below normal temperatures. Red areas favor above normal temperatures.
.
.
--
You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page
---
Meteorologist Beau Dodson---
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
---
----------------------
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
---
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois- Click Here.
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
---
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
---
Other States- Click Here
---
This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.
No comments:
Post a Comment