Thursday evening into Friday afternoon update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms coming to an end. Mostly cloudy skies. To view current flash flood warnings - click here. Could even be a few morning slick spots over parts of the region - where temps fall a bit more.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: North/northeast winds at 5-15 mph and gusty.
Precipitation probability - 40% early | Rainfall totals: 0.25" or less - early
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday: A morning patch of ice possible on some roadways where temperatures fell close to 32 overnight. A mix of sun and clouds.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 55 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Northeast winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday night: Partly cloudy skies.
Near to above normal temperatures
Near to above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Wind: Northeast at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Northeast at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Saturday: A few clouds. Otherwise sunny
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 60 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.Wind: Easterly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Avoided flooded roadways - To view current flash flood warnings - click here.
Avoid flooded roadways - To view current flash flood warnings - click here.
No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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No significant snow in this short range forecast...
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No major changes in this update!
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - early
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Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - early
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Friday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: Rain rain rain - lots of rain in our region today. Rainfall totals have generally been in the 1-2" range across our central and southern counties - a bit less over the far northern counties.
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Temperatures have been falling this afternoon and are now quite chilly over some of our counties. Temperatures as of 2 pm Thursday ranged from around 55 over west Tennessee to the upper 30s over northern parts of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri.
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There have been some reports of flooding this afternoon - mainly low lying area - ditches and a few creeks. Avoid flooded roadways. Turn around don't drown! That is the motto of the National Weather Service and we should all remember it by now.
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Couple of satellite photos and morning radar - shows you the extent of the rain and clouds.
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This radar image was from earlier on Thursday morning - lots of rain in the region - some reports of thunder, as well
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Friday and Saturday (daytime hours) will be dry - rain returns by Sunday afternoon and Sunday night (pushed it back a little bit). Right now rainfall totals from the second round of precipitation will likely be in the 0.40-0.80" range with pockets of heavier totals likely. Right now the GFS model is spitting out 0.80-1.50" of rain for parts of southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky - into southwest Indiana, as well. We will tweak the rainfall totals forecast as we move forward.
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Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Friday but should rebound a bit by Saturday and Sunday.
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Speaking of temperatures - let's roll through the upcoming weekend and into early next week - these are the high temperature maps (check out the extended forecast below - lots of red on the map - that means above normal temperatures)
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For the latest information on the tornado outbreaks last week - click here.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: Rain rain rain - lots of rain in our region today. Rainfall totals have generally been in the 1-2" range across our central and southern counties - a bit less over the far northern counties.
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Temperatures have been falling this afternoon and are now quite chilly over some of our counties. Temperatures as of 2 pm Thursday ranged from around 55 over west Tennessee to the upper 30s over northern parts of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri.
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There have been some reports of flooding this afternoon - mainly low lying area - ditches and a few creeks. Avoid flooded roadways. Turn around don't drown! That is the motto of the National Weather Service and we should all remember it by now.
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Couple of satellite photos and morning radar - shows you the extent of the rain and clouds.
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This radar image was from earlier on Thursday morning - lots of rain in the region - some reports of thunder, as well
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Friday and Saturday (daytime hours) will be dry - rain returns by Sunday afternoon and Sunday night (pushed it back a little bit). Right now rainfall totals from the second round of precipitation will likely be in the 0.40-0.80" range with pockets of heavier totals likely. Right now the GFS model is spitting out 0.80-1.50" of rain for parts of southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky - into southwest Indiana, as well. We will tweak the rainfall totals forecast as we move forward.
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Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Friday but should rebound a bit by Saturday and Sunday.
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Speaking of temperatures - let's roll through the upcoming weekend and into early next week - these are the high temperature maps (check out the extended forecast below - lots of red on the map - that means above normal temperatures)
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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I have also added a few new interactive city radars - including the Memphis, Tennessee area and the rest of the State of Kentucky.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 5 day rainfall. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: March 4th-March 14th
Event: A few shots at precipitation - severe weather risk appears low (not zero but low).
Severe Risk: low
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - most likely some rain events
Details: A few systems to monitor - right now it appears the severe weather risk is low.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: March 14th-31st
Event: 3-5 systems to monitor.
Severe Risk: Can't rule out some heavier weather the last half of the month.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - most likely some rain events
Details:
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: March 4th-March 14th
Event: A few shots at precipitation - severe weather risk appears low (not zero but low).
Severe Risk: low
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - most likely some rain events
Details: A few systems to monitor - right now it appears the severe weather risk is low.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: March 14th-31st
Event: 3-5 systems to monitor.
Severe Risk: Can't rule out some heavier weather the last half of the month.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - most likely some rain events
Details:
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. Check out the six to ten and eight to fourteen day temperature maps! Lot of red on these maps - that means above normal temperatures. The last graphic is the monthly outlook. Precipitation will likely be near normal to above normal over the next 2 weeks.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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