Wednesday evening into Thursday update!
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Wednesday night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Weather Radars - click here
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 41 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday: Partly cloudy with a stray shower or thunderstorm possible
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 74-78 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: East winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday night: Partly cloudy skies. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 41 degrees.
Wind: East at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Wind: East at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is medium
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Friday: A few clouds - a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 75-80 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.Wind: South at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is medium
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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A few thunderstorms will be possible over the coming days. A frontal boundary will find itself placed near our region. Lightning and brief heavy rain are the main concern - an outside chance for a hail or high wind report. Weather Radars - click here
If you have outdoor events then monitor radars - there could be some lighting strikes in the region. Weather Radars - click here
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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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No major changes in this update!
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here. I also strongly encourage you to FRIEND some of the local media meteorologists - I follow all of them and so should you.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Wednesday night: An isolated severe storm will be possible - hail and gusty wind would be the main concern for our immediate region. Weather Radars - click here
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Wednesday night: An isolated severe storm will be possible - hail and gusty wind would be the main concern for our immediate region. Weather Radars - click here
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
.Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Thursday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Friday: A small risk for a severe thunderstorm. Monitor for updates.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - A small chance for a watch - there is already a watch to our east.
Thursday - No
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - A small chance for a watch - there is already a watch to our east.
Thursday - No
Friday - A low chance
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - Possible
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: GOOOD Wednesday afternoon! Hope everyone is able to enjoy these 80 degree temperatures. It is more like May than late March - the warm weather continues.
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Here are the 1 pm Wednesday temperatures - WARM is the word!
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A cold front is draped over our region this afternoon - it will slowly move southward over the next 24 hours. There will be a few showers and thunderstorms along this frontal boundary. The threat for severe weather appears minimal. Hail or a gusty wind would be the main concern - along with lightning, of course. Weather Radars - click here
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You can see the front on the visible satellite imagery - the band of white clouds (cumulus clouds) along and ahead of the cold front. (This image was taken at 1 pm and shows clouds)
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The official Storm Prediction Center outlook for Wednesday evening - the orange area represents a slight risk for severe storms - the yellow area is where general thunderstorms may occur.
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It appears there will be a few scattered showers and thunderstorms into Friday night. The good news is that Saturday and Sunday may end up dry. At once time Saturday looked like a bigger rain event. I will continue to monitor and update - but right now it appears the weekend might be dry.
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A bigger thunderstorm threat may materialize on Monday. Read the extended part of the blog forecast for information on that system.
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Here are the temperatures forecasts for Thursday and Friday - ABOVE normal will be the rule.
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And once again CHECK OUT THESE DEPARTURES! How much ABOVE normal will temperatures be over the next 2 days? Quite a bit. The pattern continues to produce warm weather - very unusual.
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HEADLINES: GOOOD Wednesday afternoon! Hope everyone is able to enjoy these 80 degree temperatures. It is more like May than late March - the warm weather continues.
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Here are the 1 pm Wednesday temperatures - WARM is the word!
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A cold front is draped over our region this afternoon - it will slowly move southward over the next 24 hours. There will be a few showers and thunderstorms along this frontal boundary. The threat for severe weather appears minimal. Hail or a gusty wind would be the main concern - along with lightning, of course. Weather Radars - click here
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You can see the front on the visible satellite imagery - the band of white clouds (cumulus clouds) along and ahead of the cold front. (This image was taken at 1 pm and shows clouds)
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The official Storm Prediction Center outlook for Wednesday evening - the orange area represents a slight risk for severe storms - the yellow area is where general thunderstorms may occur.
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It appears there will be a few scattered showers and thunderstorms into Friday night. The good news is that Saturday and Sunday may end up dry. At once time Saturday looked like a bigger rain event. I will continue to monitor and update - but right now it appears the weekend might be dry.
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A bigger thunderstorm threat may materialize on Monday. Read the extended part of the blog forecast for information on that system.
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Here are the temperatures forecasts for Thursday and Friday - ABOVE normal will be the rule.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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The 24 hour rainfall forecast - scattered - not everyone will pick up rain
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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The 24 hour rainfall forecast - scattered - not everyone will pick up rain
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: April 2nd - 4th
Event: Thunderstorms
Severe Risk: Possibly.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: A strong cold front with thunderstorms. Colder air behind the front is possible.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: April 13th-17th
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. The concern for the medium range part of the forecast will center around Monday into Tuesday. A strong storm system is depicted by the numerical weather models to move into the central U.S. and the Ohio Valley - most likely on Monday into Tuesday.
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This system appears to be of substantial strength - wind fields will be strong. The one item lacking may be deep moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico. However, there may be enough instability and moisture to spark a squall line across our region - in or near our region. This will need to be closely monitored.
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Right now the timing appears to be Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning - still several days away. Fine tuning of the forecast will be necessary.
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A risk zone for severe thunderstorms is almost certain to be outlined across portions of the region for Monday into Tuesday. Stay tuned for updates on this system.
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Here are a couple of maps from the GFS off of www.wright-weather.com - my favorite source for model data.
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This is the GFS surface map for 7 am Monday - you can see the deep storm system winding up over the central United States - the purple and pink areas are precipitation.
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This is the 6-7 PM map for Monday night - strong cold front moving through our region with heavy thunderstorms.
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The GFS shows a strongly negative tilt to the 500 mb maps - this is a concern.
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This system appears to be of substantial strength - wind fields will be strong. The one item lacking may be deep moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico. However, there may be enough instability and moisture to spark a squall line across our region - in or near our region. This will need to be closely monitored.
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Right now the timing appears to be Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning - still several days away. Fine tuning of the forecast will be necessary.
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A risk zone for severe thunderstorms is almost certain to be outlined across portions of the region for Monday into Tuesday. Stay tuned for updates on this system.
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Here are a couple of maps from the GFS off of www.wright-weather.com - my favorite source for model data.
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This is the GFS surface map for 7 am Monday - you can see the deep storm system winding up over the central United States - the purple and pink areas are precipitation.
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This is the 6-7 PM map for Monday night - strong cold front moving through our region with heavy thunderstorms.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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