Sunday evening into Monday afternoon update
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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Sunday night: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph.
Precipitation probability - 90% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" with locally heavier amounts possible
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms - especially before 2 pm - possibly a scattered shower or storm over the eastern counties after 2 pm.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 74 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% early and then 40% late | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday night: Partly cloudy skies.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southwest at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Tuesday: Mostly sunny skies and warm
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 78 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.Wind: Southwest winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
.Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Monday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
Thursday - Low chance
Friday - Low chance
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: An unsettled weather pattern of the next couple of weeks. Reminds me a bit like summer. Temperatures will be well above normal right on into next week - long period of above normal temperatures.
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This also means there will be a chance for on and off showers and thunderstorms.
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The first chance for storms will arrive this evening and continue into Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be widespread over the region. Locally heavy downpours will occur in any thunderstorms that form.
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Here is the latest day 1 severe weather outlook http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html - remember this is updated several times a day
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Thunderstorms will be possible into Monday morning - then the chance should shift east during the day on Monday.
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Tuesday should be dry - then more thunderstorm chances return Wednesday into next weekend. The Wednesday through next weekend rain and storm chances appear to be scattered in nature. It is hard for me to zero in on one time frame vs another - perhaps Thursday and Friday will have a better chance than Wednesday. Monitor for updates - instability will be present and a few storms could be strong and/or severe. It does not appear to be an organized severe weather threat.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: An unsettled weather pattern of the next couple of weeks. Reminds me a bit like summer. Temperatures will be well above normal right on into next week - long period of above normal temperatures.
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This also means there will be a chance for on and off showers and thunderstorms.
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The first chance for storms will arrive this evening and continue into Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be widespread over the region. Locally heavy downpours will occur in any thunderstorms that form.
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Here is the latest day 1 severe weather outlook http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html - remember this is updated several times a day
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Thunderstorms will be possible into Monday morning - then the chance should shift east during the day on Monday.
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Tuesday should be dry - then more thunderstorm chances return Wednesday into next weekend. The Wednesday through next weekend rain and storm chances appear to be scattered in nature. It is hard for me to zero in on one time frame vs another - perhaps Thursday and Friday will have a better chance than Wednesday. Monitor for updates - instability will be present and a few storms could be strong and/or severe. It does not appear to be an organized severe weather threat.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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I have also added a few new interactive city radars - including the Memphis, Tennessee area and the rest of the State of Kentucky.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: March 4th-March 14th
Event: A few shots at precipitation - severe weather risk appears low (not zero but low).
Severe Risk: low
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - most likely some rain events
Details: A few systems to monitor - right now it appears the severe weather risk is low.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: March 14th-31st
Event: 3-5 systems to monitor.
Severe Risk: Can't rule out some heavier weather the last half of the month.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - most likely some rain events
Details:
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: March 4th-March 14th
Event: A few shots at precipitation - severe weather risk appears low (not zero but low).
Severe Risk: low
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - most likely some rain events
Details: A few systems to monitor - right now it appears the severe weather risk is low.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: March 14th-31st
Event: 3-5 systems to monitor.
Severe Risk: Can't rule out some heavier weather the last half of the month.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - most likely some rain events
Details:
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. The extended forecast will be warm - mild for March. Above normal temperatures right on through the rest of the work week.
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There will be an on/off chance for showers and storms in the humid air-mass. The best chance for these storms may be on Thursday and Friday.
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A larger system may approach the region early next week - somewhere around the 19th-22nd. The models are not clear on this - monitor for updates.
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There will be an on/off chance for showers and storms in the humid air-mass. The best chance for these storms may be on Thursday and Friday.
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A larger system may approach the region early next week - somewhere around the 19th-22nd. The models are not clear on this - monitor for updates.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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