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March 27th-28th - 2012
Tuesday night and Wednesday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Tuesday night: Partly cloudy and very mild for March. A chance for some showers and thunderstorms creeping into our northern counties after midnight.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 41 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 76-82 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph and gusty at times
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - locally heavier in a thunderstorm
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday night: Partly cloudy skies. A chance for showers and thunderstorms - mainly before midnight.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 41 degrees.
Wind: West at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: West at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Thursday: Mostly ro partly sunny skies. Mild for March.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 70-75 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.Wind: Easterly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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A chance for some thunderstorms over the next 24-36 hours. Lightning is the main concern for any outdoor events. There could be a severe thunderstorm or two on Wednesday afternoon/evening. The main concern would be hail and gusty winds. This is a marginal/low risk event. There is a better chance of just some showers and general thunderstorms. Monitor for updates.
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If you have outdoor events then monitor radars - lightning is a concern, as always with the scattered thunderstorms that do form.
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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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No major changes in this update!
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated in our immediate local counties - there could be a severe thunderstorm or two over our far far northern counties - closer to St Louis area.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated in our immediate local counties - there could be a severe thunderstorm or two over our far far northern counties - closer to St Louis area.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Wednesday: A small risk for a severe thunderstorm or two - hail and gusty wind would be the concern.
Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - general thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday into Wednesday evening.
.Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - general thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday into Wednesday evening.
Wednesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - Low risk for our far northern counties - more likely towards St Louis into central Missouri and central Illinois
Wednesday - A low chance for a severe thunderstorm watch
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - Low risk for our far northern counties - more likely towards St Louis into central Missouri and central Illinois
Wednesday - A low chance for a severe thunderstorm watch
Thursday - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: Another warm day across our region. One of many over the past few months.
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Our next storm system is approaching from the northwest. This system will push a cold front into our region later tonight into Wednesday. Along and ahead of this front there will be a broken line of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for precipitation over most of our area will be late late tonight (Tuesday night - northern counties) and then over the rest of the area on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Moisture is limited with this system.
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As far as the severe weather risk - the risk appears minimal/marginal. There will be quite a bit of CAPE (energy in the atmosphere) - but the wind fields are weak. There could be a stray severe thunderstorm with hail and high winds on Wednesday - there will be a better chance of general thunderstorms in the region. General thunderstorms would bring brief heavy downpours and lightning.
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If you have any outdoor activities planned on Wednesday then monitor radar - especially any sporting events on Wednesday afternoon and evening.
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Here is the WRF model future-cast radar from www.wright-weather.com - my favorite source for weather model data - you can see the images start from 11 pm tonight and then go into Wednesday evening. See the line of thunderstorms that is forecast to form (Tuesday night) north of St Louis - then watch it move southward and dissipate. Then in the heat of the day tomorrow it reforms.
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11 PM Tonight (Tuesday night)
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Time stamps are on the top right portion of the image...
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We will see how that model does with this event - it appears the line of storms should reform somewhere near the frontal boundary tomorrow afternoon.
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See the extended forecast for our next precipitation chances.
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Here is the high temperature forecast for Wednesday and Thursday - along with the DEPARTURES. WELL above normal once again!
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Incredible - how long this warm pattern has lasted.
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HEADLINES: Another warm day across our region. One of many over the past few months.
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Our next storm system is approaching from the northwest. This system will push a cold front into our region later tonight into Wednesday. Along and ahead of this front there will be a broken line of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for precipitation over most of our area will be late late tonight (Tuesday night - northern counties) and then over the rest of the area on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Moisture is limited with this system.
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As far as the severe weather risk - the risk appears minimal/marginal. There will be quite a bit of CAPE (energy in the atmosphere) - but the wind fields are weak. There could be a stray severe thunderstorm with hail and high winds on Wednesday - there will be a better chance of general thunderstorms in the region. General thunderstorms would bring brief heavy downpours and lightning.
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If you have any outdoor activities planned on Wednesday then monitor radar - especially any sporting events on Wednesday afternoon and evening.
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Here is the WRF model future-cast radar from www.wright-weather.com - my favorite source for weather model data - you can see the images start from 11 pm tonight and then go into Wednesday evening. See the line of thunderstorms that is forecast to form (Tuesday night) north of St Louis - then watch it move southward and dissipate. Then in the heat of the day tomorrow it reforms.
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11 PM Tonight (Tuesday night)
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We will see how that model does with this event - it appears the line of storms should reform somewhere near the frontal boundary tomorrow afternoon.
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See the extended forecast for our next precipitation chances.
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Here is the high temperature forecast for Wednesday and Thursday - along with the DEPARTURES. WELL above normal once again!
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Incredible - how long this warm pattern has lasted.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: March 24th-31st
Event: Several systems to monitor.
Severe Risk: Possibly.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Warm to very warm conditions will continue.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: April 2nd - 4th
Event: Thunderstorms
Severe Risk: Possibly.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: A strong cold front with thunderstorms. Colder air behind the front is possible.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: April 13th-17th
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. Thursday night into Saturday will bring a few more showers and thunderstorms - perhaps the best chance will be on Friday night and early Saturday (early AM hours) with a period of showers/storms. Right now I don't think they will be severe.
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There is some uncertainty on the timing of the precipitation between Thursday and Friday night - there could be a few showers and storms around at any given time. I will need to tweak that part of the forecast.
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The day on Saturday and Sunday appear mostly dry - although some data indicates a few popup showers possible along a warm front - I will need to monitor and update that time period. I know a lot of people have outdoor plans this weekend.
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Another system will approach the region on Sunday night into Monday night/Tuesday - this could bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms. A bit too soon to make a call on severe weather. There could be a risk zone outlined somewhere in the Ohio Valley - monitor for updates.
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There is some uncertainty on the timing of the precipitation between Thursday and Friday night - there could be a few showers and storms around at any given time. I will need to tweak that part of the forecast.
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The day on Saturday and Sunday appear mostly dry - although some data indicates a few popup showers possible along a warm front - I will need to monitor and update that time period. I know a lot of people have outdoor plans this weekend.
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Another system will approach the region on Sunday night into Monday night/Tuesday - this could bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms. A bit too soon to make a call on severe weather. There could be a risk zone outlined somewhere in the Ohio Valley - monitor for updates.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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